"Russia and Ukraine agreed to safe shipping and refrain from utilizing force in the Black Sea", a message of this content was published by the White home on Tuesday. The agreement was to be developed during separate meetings of representatives of Donald Trump's administration with diplomats from Ukraine and Russia. It happened in Riyadh on March 23 and 24.
Russian ship close the Crimean Bridge, July 2023
The information contained in the White home communication was confirmed by Rustem Umerov, Minister of Defence of Ukraine. His words show that Kiev accepted the proposal to halt war in the Black Sea, however, indicating that the agreement should be monitored by partner countries. Umerov besides stated that possible movements of Russian units outside the east part of the black sea basin would be considered a breach of the contract. “In this case Ukraine will have full right to usage self-defense,” he announced.
Volodymyr Zelenski besides spoke. The president of Ukraine reported that "a truce involving the Black Sea and energy infrastructure enters into force immediately". It is simply a clear declaration of good will of the Ukrainian side, although it is accompanied by the reservation that Kiev will request from Washington "additional arms supplies and sanctions against Russia if Moscow breaks agreements".
However, the signals from Russia show that the “Black Sea Initiative” will enter into force after taking into account respective conditions. This includes the release of Russian exports of agricultural products and fertilizers, the connection to SWIFT, or the abolition of restrictions on the import of machinery and agricultural goods into the Federation area. In order for this to happen, the consent of another entities whose actions are sustained by the sanctioning government is needed – agreements with the US and Ukraine alone It's not enough. According to the Kremlin, the United States agreed to aid Russia accomplish these objectives. erstwhile and how? – no of the parties gives information about this.
(No)The accidental success of Ukrainians
The war in Ukraine is mostly land-based, which does not change the fact that the Black Sea basin is, alongside the western borders of the country, a Ukrainian "window to the world". The Russians intended to close them – on the eve of the full-scale invasion of the Black Sea Fleet 2 tasks were put forward. It was to establish a blockade of Ukrainian ports and shipping routes, and to let and carry out a sea landing, resulting in Odesa being occupied (in cooperation with the ground troops). For this purpose, additional large landing ships were taken from the Baltic.
While the blockade and mine of the water initially ran without unpleasant surprises for the Russians, matters took a bad turn with the landing already in the early days of the war. At this stage, not so much the fleet was guilty as the army, which failed to approach Odesa. The attack from the sea was postponed, with the hope of an immediate opportunity. This 1 never came.
Ukrainians “welded and invaded” the coast. They made the Odesa a fortress, and along the shore they deployed anti-ship rocket launchers that pushed Russian ships into the water. First, however, the Russians learned a solid lesson – the defenders sank them, utilizing just specified rockets, the flagship fleet unit, the cruiser “Moscow”. At the time, in April 2022, it seemed to be a large but single and alternatively random success of Ukrainians. Time has shown otherwise.
Profit primarily for Russians
Ukrainians – who do not actually have their own fleet – went to the Russians. In addition to these anti-ship missiles, utilizing besides unmanned aircraft – air and sea – and aerial maneuvering missiles, fired from aircraft. For many months they attacked not only ships (they destroyed to varying degrees more than 30 units) but besides port military infrastructure and installations: radars, ground launchers, airports and office of Black Sea Fleet Command. The main mark remained Crimea and the base in Sevastopol.
As a result, the defenders not only abolished the hazard of landing, but besides broke the Russian blockade. Ukrainian food present flows by ships to Istanbul and Constance, and the export scale is higher than before the war.
The aggressors were not only driven from the west Black Sea waters. The demolition of the Crimean hinterland and the attacks on the units close the peninsula caused the Black Sea Fleet to decision most of the units to the base in Noworosiansk, to the east Russian seashore. And mostly focused on the protection of the Crimean Bridge, eyes in Vladimir Putin's head.
From this perspective, a truce in the Black Sea would be beneficial primarily to Russians whose fleet could return to Crimea. But Ukrainians, after all Russians, would besides benefit, not as frequently as they utilized to, but inactive usage ships to fire missiles at Ukrainian cities. They do this primarily utilizing submarines equipped with Kalibr rockets. The features of these units make the Ukrainians hard to track and hit in motion.
