On the eve of the NATO summit in Washington, D.C. – i.e. on 8 July 2024 – president Volodymyr Zelenski visited Warsaw, where he met Prime Minister Donald Tuski. Both initialled a Polish-Ukrainian agreement on cooperation on safety and energy. The joint conference announced, among others:
- Creation of a Ukrainian legion trained and equipped in the territory of Poland,
- Creation of an energy bridge from Poland to Ukraine.
- Work for the anticipation of dropping Russian missiles flying towards Poland inactive over Ukrainian territory – which would be organised within the wider NATO coalition.
At the same time, the Polish Prime Minister confirmed the continuation of Ukraine's support to join NATO and the European Union. erstwhile asked about the transfer of 29 Polish Migs to Ukraine, he stated that this option was desirable, but impossible for this moment. due to the fact that Poland must besides take care of its own safety, and Migi play an crucial function in air defense. However, he did not exclude their transfer if Poland received support in the form of Western machinery.
Finally, the Polish Prime Minister presented an knowing position for the Ukrainian side on historical issues. He declared that Kiev was ready to decision on and solve these matters, but only after the conflict. What the Polish side is ready to wait for. This last declaration seems to be a diplomatic error, due to the fact that it should be stressed that the war in Ukraine is already taking place for the 3rd year. And it will most likely take a long time, and the Ukrainian administration had quite a few time to deal with symbolic but crucial issues for Poland and Poles connected with the Volynska Rzezia. The Polish side should not propose that the subject is not presently on the table. He should be visible to Ukraine and as much as possible cling to the Kiev authorities themselves wanting to solve the problem as shortly as possible. If Ukraine is not ready to do so now – erstwhile it stands against the wall – then counting on the Kiev authorities going to Poland's hand erstwhile the war is over, it seems to be a illusion. However, this subject is simply a sideline to the full conference and the intent it was intended to serve. However, this should have been mentioned.
The creation of the Ukrainian legion – 1 would like to say: yet – is the most affirmative idea. Like this one, to mine Polish coal for EU money and convert it into energy sent to Ukraine if it had problems with shortages during the winter due to Russian actions. This kind of solution is wine-wine for both parties. Polish mining would receive a contract which would be paid from EU funds. Energy produced from Polish coal would not be subject to additional fees related to the Green Deal, and Ukraine would safe itself on an energy level.
The most controversy in the commentary triggered the thought of shooting down Russian rockets in Ukrainian airspace to defend Polish territory. This kind of initiative has been described by many as risky – even though we do not know the exact thought of what it would look like technically – and so not worth raising. Many have even taken a breath of relief erstwhile John Kirby, an American spokesperson for the National safety Bureau, said publically that specified an initiative would increase the hazard of escalation. Suggesting that the United States distances itself from specified ideas. specified a reaction from Polish publicists and even experts is completely incomprehensible.
Poland gained after 2022 on perps
Firstly, it should be stressed that John Kirby is neither a typical of the Polish authorities nor even a decision-makers in Washington. He's a spokesman. In another words, he is not the 1 negotiating on behalf of the US, and it is not with him that Polish diplomacy should discuss. Just due to the fact that a third-country spokesperson declares something does not mean that these are the realities, and even more so should not decide how the Polish State conducts its abroad policy and what objectives it sets itself in this policy. It is crucial to be aware that the public communications of ombudsmen service circumstantial political or even negotiating objectives. They are a specified tool, not an indicator of revealed truth. Poland's state's right – in terms of war in Ukraine – goes beyond the American perspective. Knowing this, the Polish authorities should not only, but even have an work to prosecute Polish objectives and interests without looking at the concerns and concerns of 3rd country decision-makers.
Yes, Poland is not a power and has restrictions on creating and modifying the global situation. However, this does not mean that it has no influence. On the contrary, since 2022 the Polish authorities have proved that the centre of power in Warsaw has gained perpetuity. So we should not be interested, for example, in the current communicative in Washington.. Let us remember that in 2022 the Americans said no to alleged offensive weapons, dense equipment (tank, artillery), aircraft or long-range missiles for Ukraine. By 2024, all of these weapons systems were already at the disposal of the Ukrainian army. This proves that political lines and communicative change over time. frequently due to actions of smaller countries, i.e. like Poland.
It was the Polish government that first made the political decision to transfer Ukraine: tanks (T-72 and PT-91), bwpow (BWP-1), habicoarmat (Krab, Carnation) or aircraft (Mig-29). Political decisions by Western countries were taken in this respect later. It was Poland that worked for the “tank coalition” within which it put force on the government in Berlin, and this in turn made its decision dependent on the American handover of tanks. As a result, Leopardy 2, Challengery and Abramsa hit Ukraine. It was the Polish president who worked hard to ride all the western capitals at the time erstwhile Volodymyr Zelenski was sitting in a Kiev bunker immersed in planning to defend the country. This proves that Poland has late been able to turn western “no” into “yes”. For the benefit of himself and Ukraine. Let us yet learn to appreciate our own strengths, due to the fact that 1 can no longer read and perceive to the communicative of "non-dasism".
“No fly zone” over Ukraine is our political goal
At this point, the thought of shooting down Russian missiles headed towards Poland inactive over Ukraine should be completely analytical. This is an initiative that one more time goes beyond the American strategical comfort zone. However, we should not care about this comfort, due to the fact that our own safety is at stake. Lobbying for this kind of solution is absolutely in the Polish state's right. Especially as we do not have a adequate number of our own rocket systems, and in addition we are dependent on the transportation of missiles to them from the American side. So there's no another way, everything must be done to persuade allies to create, at least over the western part of Ukraine, physical "no fly wifeIt’s okay. ”
Such a solution would build our security, at the same time rise the safety of Ukraine and restrain Russian hands. At the same time, the effect is important, not the form the initiative takes. Official and loud action to shoot down Russian missiles over Ukraine is uncomfortable for Americans. Very good. It is easy to present in specified conditions an alternate in the form of a proposal to send additional Patriot systems (or another ones) to Ukraine, in addition to those already declared, to make a protective umbrella, e.g. 80-100 km from the Polish border. In another words, it is not necessarily Poland or NATO that must shoot down Russian missiles in specified a zone. Ukrainians with the right equipment could do this. Hired for this peculiar purpose.
Accepting only this kind of truncated idea, even if only due to the fact that Poles did not talk about shooting Russian missiles by NATO-operated systems, would be a large benefit for us and for the Ukrainians. The precedence that president Zelenski spoke about in Warsaw and Washington. It means creating a decently sealed anti-aircraft and anti-missile defense. It should be remembered that If the Ukrainians make specified a dome, they will not pass missiles flying over Poland. The breakup problem is solved.
However, it should not be overturned that NATO systems – in order to defend their own airspace – would shoot missiles towards Poland or Romania. And no, it would not mean automatic entry into war, as any say. In 2019, Iran shot down American unmanned MQ-4C Triton. Pro-Iran militias—at Tehran's command— repeatedly attacked American military bases in Iraq. no of these actions led to war, even though the US is much stronger than Iran. In 2015, Turkey shot down a Russian Su-24 aircraft causing the pilot's death. Russia did not retaliate.
Of course Moscow could treat shooting down her missiles as casus belli. Just as Poland can treat as a reason for war a breach of its airspace by Russian missiles. Will Poland attack Russia due to this? Nope. Is Russia going to attack full NATO due to neutralizing its missiles? The answer must be identical. It should besides be remembered that if the Moscow authorities always want to attack Poland or NATO, they will not request any real ones. casus belli. They'll do it to themselves if they request to.
The thought of shooting down Russian missiles headed towards Poland – let us note how much area for manoeuvre and explanation gives specified a phrase – it is simply a kind of breach. The first step towards the real establishment of the region “no fly wife“ for the Russians. For now only Russian missiles or unmanned missiles are flying over Ukraine. Nothing more. So shooting down specified combat measures would mean, without political announcement and legal regulation, the actual establishment of a safe airspace over part of Ukraine.
If NATO had now established – by facts made – "no fly zone’ over the western part of Ukraine, the Russians in this respect could do nothing. Since their planes are no longer flying there, they would not have entered after the above-mentioned air defence zone. In all this, the most crucial thing is to realize that almost all the conventional possible of the Russian Federation's army is active against the Ukrainians. Russia is much weaker than NATO. It is now the least hazard of war between NATO and Russia. The another 1 has restrained hands and is susceptible to outside activities. Azerbaijan has taken over the full mountain Karabach at the inactivity of the Russians, and let us remember that the Azerbaijanis are no power and do not participate in any alliance that would warrant their safety by Russia. IF NATO AND POLAND WANT ACTIONS AND ACTIVATELY STOPS RUSSIA, THIS IS THE minute FOR ACTION.
All the more disappointing is the attitude of the current Washington administration, which has presented a alternatively conservative position since 2022. Under which the US takes the essential minimum to aid Ukraine, but at the same time they act besides slow. Delayingly deciding to transfer further military equipment. Self-limiting in this area and setting meaningless red lines, after which the Russians do not respond anyway.
With this kind of distance presented by Washington, Poland must prosecute a more active, causative abroad policy, in which it will manifest a large determination. Just like it's been so far. The American law is not to participate in any kind of initiative. In turn, the Polish law is to initiate and lobby for solutions which are beneficial from the point of view of the Polish state.
In this regard, public Wallpapering – just before the NATO summit in Washington – of shooting down Russian missiles over Ukraine should be regarded as a very good decision. We must act in this kind of substance with imagination, courage and without any complexes. due to the fact that no 1 else will.
Krzysztof Wojchal
geopolitics, politics, economy, law, taxes – blog
