Another Trump-Zelenski meeting

Both meetings are to be discussed in terms of the end of the Ukrainian armed forces and in terms of safety guarantees for Kiev. According to U.S. media, Trump will propose to Zelensk a "protection in accordance with Article 5", but without formal NATO membership, to which Putin would agree. In return, Ukraine should recognise the annexation of Crimea and return Russia to Donbas (all Donetsk and Luhansk circuits, the first of which is inactive under the control of the Ukrainian army).

It is hard to measure whether specified an offer will actually fail, and how much it is attached to the US-Russian arrangements. Moscow has yet to comment on reports of its alleged agreement to "protection in line with Article 5". specified a solution would be in spite of the Kremlin's erstwhile demands towards Ukraine. The question of the Western military presence over the Dnieprem – without which there is no real safety guarantees – has so far been treated as unacceptable by Russia.

In addition, after Alaska meeting Putin stated that although his country is "sincerely interested" in ending the conflict, the situation in Ukraine constitutes a "fundamental threat to Russia's security". "To guarantee that the agreement is sustainable and long-term, we must destruct all the main causes of this conflict, [...] take account of all the legitimate concerns of Russia and reconstruct a fair safety balance in Europe and in the world," Putin said.

Not concessions, but strength

What did he mean? Moscow spoke repeatedly about the "elimination of the main causes" by pointing out the request to demilitarize Ukraine, and demanding peculiar position of Russian and Moscow's Church and the transfer of Russia's 4 Ukrainian circuits: Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporosk and Khersonsk. Russian expectations besides had a non-Ukrainian dimension and were reduced to a drastic simplification in NATO's function on the east flank.

President Zelenski repeatedly assured that he would not agree to voluntarily donate Russia to any land and repeated this position on 17 August, on the eve of his departure to Washington. At the same time, he expressed his willingness to recognise the position quo – the actual Russian presence in Ukraine – which should not be confused with the consent for occupation. Kiev is aware that it is incapable to reflect lost lands, but in the future, on a peaceful path, it will search to recover them. The same view – the refusal to change borders by force – is besides presented by European leaders who intend to convince Trump to their point of view. Europe and Ukraine are besides compatible on another issue – the necessity to force Russia into peace talks, not through concessions, but by force. By further supporting Kiev's defence efforts and economical pressures, i.e. further sanctions imposed on Moscow.

Can Donald Trump be persuaded to do so? In his latest entry on the fact Social platform, he stated that the president of Ukraine "could end the war with Russia almost immediately if he wanted, or could proceed the fight". Thus, the work for the continuation of the conflict was placed on defenders, not aggressors – and this is not a good forecast before evening meetings.