Authors:
Konrad Markiewicz – Master of global Relations of the University of Lodz, associate of Defence24. His interests focus on French and Sub-Saharan African abroad policy and safety and terrorism issues..
Mieszko Kucharski – Student of global Studies of Political Sciences and Diplomacy at the University of Silesia in Katowice. His interests focus on global relations, in peculiar Europe-West Africa. .
From 24 February 2022 to 31 December 2023, France transferred military equipment to Ukraine with a full value of over €3.8 billion (€1.2 billion under the EFP)[1]. Additionally, Paris trained about 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers in Poland together with Warsaw. In February 2024, Zelenski and Macron signed a bilateral safety agreement in which France announced an additional EUR 3 billion military aid to the Ukrainian side[2].
However, the amounts declared and transferred to date by the French side are illusory in the light of the economical possible of the V Republic. It is worth remembering that the praise of the pro-Ukrainian attitude of France and its president does not obscure the real picture. Macron's 14.03 speech wasn't groundbreaking. On the another hand, declarations of arms production for Ukraine in France and in Ukrainian territory were issued. They resonated slogans about expanding the production of arms for Ukraine and buying arms for Ukraine.
Additionally, Minister Lecornu declared that equipment withdrawn from the equipment of the French army would go to the Ukrainian side. The French defence minister ensured the transfer of respective 100 armoured VAB vehicles in 2024 and 2025. Paris besides declares giving Kiev more ammunition to anti-aircraft systems. The most crucial declaration is the desire of the V Republic to hand over to Ukraine 78 cannonohaubic CAESAR (including ammunition)[3]. In June 2024, the French Republic besides announced the transfer to the Ukrainian side of the unspecified number of Mirage 2000-5 fighters[4]. Below is simply a list of so-far handed over weapons and equipment of the French Ukrainian side. The information comes from the Ministry of Defence's declaration and depicts the state as at 14.06.2024.
Defence diplomacy
France surpassed the Russian Federation in terms of the amount of weapons exported. It became the second globally largest weapon supplier after the US. In 2019-2023, France sold 11% of the world's exported weapons (an increase of nearly 50% compared to 2014-2018). The largest recipient of French weapons in 2019-2023 was India, which received 29% of its full exports. France sold most weapons
in the period described to the countries of Indo-Pacific and mediate East (total 76%). Europe was only a recipient of 9% of French weapons (leading Greece, which bought 17 Rafale fighters)[5].
The pearl in the crown of the French armor is the Rafale fighters. In the period 2014-2018, Paris sold 23 pieces, and in the period 2019-2023 – 94 pieces. The buyers were mainly non-European partners, which shows the degree of rivalry with the US with the domain of equipping global fleets of players. In Europe, only Croatia and Greece are upgrading their air force based on the French solution. In the mediate East-Pacific region, France exported Rafales to Egypt, India, Indonesia, Qatar and the UAE. It is worth noting that France recorded a 14% increase in ship exports and arms exports to these countries[6].
Maintaining the increase in arms exports by the French Republic seems very possible after Paris has implemented the “war economy” solutions. Its basic assumptions are defined by the Law on the Programming of Military Expenditure (La loi de programming militaire) for the years 2024-2030[7]. The normative character active the political will of French decision-makers. They declared a shortening of transportation time: – cannonohaubic CEASAR (from 30 to 15 months), – short scope projectiles Mistral (from 24 months to 12), – Thales radars (from 18 months to 6 months). It is besides expected to increase the amount of 155mm artillery ammunition produced and multi-tasking Rafale (Dassault Aviation) fighters per period alternatively of 2. The increase in the production capacity of the French arms sector is intended to strengthen the indigenous capacity of projection and defence and to meet the targets of arms exports (mainly to Ukraine)[8].
The V Republic of home arms export created a abroad policy instrument. This can be seen from this year's contracts signed, among others, with Serbia (12 Rafale fighters), Indonesia (2 Scorpène Evolved submarines), Netherlands (4 Orka-type submarines).
It is worth looking at possible consumers of the French arms industry. Many countries that modernise their armed forces are presently considering the offer from Paris. Brazil, Spain or Armenia may join the alleged “CAESAR Club” in the future. In the close future, CAESAR will besides enter service in Belgium and Lithuania. Estonia besides expressed its desire to acquisition French cannonohabic (in the wheel traction variant)[9]. The 4,5 generation Rafale fighters, which service in the air force of France, Greece, India, Qatar, Croatia and the UAE, are besides of large interest. Their willingness to buy them is besides reported by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (Riyad has issued a declaration of intent on 54 fighters). For the Sauds, however, the rafale are part of a larger game due to the fact that the KAS wants to put force on the German government, which blocked the sale of Eurofighter Typhoon fighters to Riyadh[10].
France benefits from the fact that global actors modernize their armed forces. Paris is guided by the long-standing rule of sovereignty of the arms industry. He tries to convince his European and global partners of the benefits of choosing a French offer. This is mostly correlated with the slogans of Europe's strategical autonomy and NATO's Europeanisation, especially erstwhile Americans are refocusing on the problems of the Indo-Pacific and the mediate East.
Elections in the US and Europe's security
The world's eyesight turned to the United States, where presidential elections will take place on November 5. The current Democratic president Joe Biden will face erstwhile Republican president Donald Trump.
The discussion of the change of power in the White home has ignited in Europe after 1 of the erstwhile president's statements on gathering allied commitments in the event of the Russian Federation's aggression. His approach to the conflict in Ukraine was besides highlighted. Trump has repeatedly pointed out that he will end the war in 1 day, and it is doubtful that its solution will be conducive to the interests of Ukraine and NATO members. The U.S. has influence all over the world. In the current global situation, countries specified as China, Russia and Iran are increasingly trying to undermine American dominance. It forces Washington to intensify its political actions. Trump's policy can turn America towards isolationism, and this causes European leaders to effort to take on the position of a fresh safety leader. Of course, the function of the U.S. is crucial and impossible to replace due to the possible of the American armory. In 2023, the Americans allocated $916 billion to their armed forces, nearly 3 times more than the second in this ranking of the People's Republic of China[11]. However, the script in which the United States is letting Europe go seems unrealistic. They will most likely decide to reduce their commitment. This is the origin that forces Europeans to increase their own defence capabilities.
The French Republic gradually changed its policy towards the east flank of NATO and the perception of the threat from the Russian Federation. Since the full-scale aggression against Ukraine of February 24, 2022, political declarations have besides been accompanied by a noticeable change in the conduct of the Elysée Palace in relation to France's relation to European security. The countries of east Europe, specified as Estonia and Romania, straight benefit from this, which have French arms products equipped with them, while in their territory they host French contingents as part of the North Atlantic Alliance mission[12]. Political changes in Poland after 13 October 2023 open up possible for a fresh hand in French-Polish relations. However, Warsaw should show political will and offer Paris an offer of cooperation in circumstantial fields and to perceive to French needs. So far the Republic of Poland has been with its partner from the Seine has been slow and waiting for action. At the same time, Estonia collaborated with the French in Europe and Africa, which assured itself of modernising its armed forces based on three-colour solutions. At the same time, she demonstrated credibility and determination[13]. Poland has respective times more possible than Tallinn. It should wake up from political lethargy towards France and prosecute its political interest. With the view that Paris can present Warsaw with an alternate to Berlin.
Bibliography:
[1] Ukraine : la France dresse le bilan des équipements militaires livrés, Ministère des Armées, 4 March 2024, https://www.defense.gouv.fr/actualites/Ukraine-france-dresse-bilan-equipements-militaires-liveres (accessed: 14.06.2024).
[2] Accord de coopération en matière de sécurité entre la France et l’Ukraine, Élysée, 16 February 2024, https://www.elysee.fr/emmanuel-macron/2024/02/16/accord-de-cooperation-en-matter-de-security-entre-la-france-et-lukraine (accessed: 14.06.2024).
[3] Z. Weise, France to supply fresh missions, utilized amored vehicles to Ukraine, defence minister says‘Politico’, 31 March 2024, https://www.politico.eu/article/free-missions-used-armored-vehicles-Ukraine/ (accessed: 14.06.2024).
[4] France will supply Ukraine with Mirage 2000 fighters‘Defence24’, 6 June 2024, https://defence24.pl/war-on-ukrainie-report-special-defence24/France-supply-Ukrainian-thinker-mirage-2000 (accessed 14.06.2024); variants of fighters and possible “Mirage coalition” describes Antonia Walkowski in a good way in his article Mirage 2000 will hit Ukraine. But where to get them?‘Defence24’, 12 June 2024, https://defence24.pl/war-on-ukrainie-report-special-defence24/mirage-2000-tra-on-ukraine-only-skad-je-take-analysis (accessed: 14.06.2024).
[5] Trends in global Arms Transfers, 2023, Stockholm global Peace investigation Institute, March 2024, pp. 1-6.
[6] Ibid.
[7] La loi de programming militaire 2024-2030 : les grandes orientations, Ministère des Armées, 13 July 2023, https://www.defense.gouv.fr/ministere/politique-defense/loi-programmation-militaire-2024-2030/loi-programmation-militaire-2024-2030-grandes (accessed: 14.06.2024).
[8] A. Olech, France reveals details of the war economy‘Defence24’, 1 April 2024, https://defence24.pl/geopolitics/France-disclosure-specific-war economy (accessed: 14.06.2024).
[9] The president CAESAR Club open‘Defence24’, 8 January 2024, https://defence24.pl/industrial/club-caesar-open (accessed: 14.06.2024).
[10] Mr Miedzinski, A close ally of the United States will buy planes from France? Rafale has a chance to conquer the mediate East, Defence Portal, 23 October 2023, https://portalobronny.se.pl/weapon industry/near-sojusznik-usa-buys-airplanes-from-France-rafale-ma-shans-subbice-near-east-aaa-FT83-8CW6-xHbJ.html (accessed: 14.06.2024).
[11] Trends in global Arms, p. 3.
[12] LYNX : enhanced Forward Presence, Ministère des Armées, https://www.defense.gouv.fr/operations/operations/otan/enhanced-forward-present (accessed 14.06.2024); Mission Aigle, Ministère des Armées, https://www.defense.gouv.fr/operations/operations/otan/mission-aigle (accessed: 14.06.2024).
[13] N. Gros-Verheyde, Task-force Takuba : les Européens sont là. Ils ont pris conscience du danger au Sahel‘B2 diary de bord’, 5 July 2021, https://www.bruxelles2.eu/2021/07/task-force-takuba-les-europeens-sont-la-ils-ont-pris-conscience-du-danger-au-sahel-florence-parly/ (accessed: 14.06.2024).
Photo: Canva
