House sales have gone down by 13 percent. It's a chance for buyers, but the aftermarket is dead

June data from the Polish real property marketplace ruthlessly verified May's enthusiasm, which appeared after the first 2 years of lowering interest rates. Sale of apartments in 7 biggest cities in Poland fell by alarming 13 percent to the erstwhile month, which is simply a clear signal that a single monetary impulse is not adequate for a lasting recovery. The marketplace rapidly returned to advanced prices, limited availability of mortgages and expanding caution among both buyers and developers. However, this abrupt change in marketplace dynamics paradoxically opens up fresh opportunities for patient buyers, while at the same time questioning the future of the secondary market, which is clearly losing its popularity.

May euphoria gave way to hard reality

After a brief wave of optimism, triggered by the May decision of the National Bank of Poland to reduce interest rates from 5.75 to 5.25 percent, June brought a sober look at the condition of the Polish housing market. In the 7 largest agglomerations only sold Less than 3.1 1000 apartments, which represents a 13% decrease compared to May. This consequence clearly shows how fragile the spring revival was and that the marketplace did not build a sustainable growth trend that could sustain itself in the long word in 2025.

The marketplace rapidly cooled on both sides of the transaction. The buyers, despite their lower feet, rapidly realized that mortgages stay expensive, and the restrictive creditworthiness requirements of banks proceed to limit the availability of funding. This prompted many possible buyers to rethink their acquisition plans. On the another hand, developers, seeing the slowdown in demand, again took a cautious stance, importantly slowing down the marketplace introduction of fresh projects. This common cover led to the current stagnation, which is characteristic of the marketplace in mid-2025.

Unexpected phrase: request surpasses supply for the first time since 2023

Despite a general decline in sales, June brought 1 very crucial and affirmative signal to the future of the market: for the first time since September 2023 demand for housing exceeded the fresh supply. This phenomenon has not been observed since the Safe Credit 2 percent program, which artificially drove the marketplace in the end of 2023. This means that although little is being sold, developers marketplace even little fresh premises, which could have long-term consequences.

In the 7 largest markets, developers have only introduced 2.5 1000 fresh premises. This is simply a amazingly low number, given that companies have crucial reserves of construction permits. This caution is evidence that the manufacture is increasingly adapting its offer not to forecast demand, but to the actual rate of sales. Currently, the improvement offer includes a full of 62.1 1000 apartments, which means applicable stagnation. However, compared to last year, the number of apartments available increased by 30 percent, giving buyers a much greater choice.

"Maintaining the current price level is present a favourable script for developers. However, if there are no crucial impulses in the marketplace environment in the coming months, specified as interest rate reductions or changes in the creditworthiness methodology, more and more price adjustments, especially at the level of individual offers, are to be expected" Katarzyna Kuniewicz of Otodom in statements for PAP. This forecast shows how much the marketplace depends on external factors specified as the NBP monetary policy or banking regulation, which will be crucial for further price movements in 2025.

The secondary marketplace in reverse: What happens to second hand apartments?

June has besides brought a clear weakening of the second-hand housing market, which is another alarming signal for sellers. In most large cities, the number of fresh sales announcements has decreased compared to May, which may signal a change of temper among housing owners who may be withholding sales, expecting better marketplace conditions. Moreover, the yearly increase in the number of announcements in the 7 main markets was only 1,5 percent, while in erstwhile months it reached several, or even respective twelve percent.

"A smaller number of fresh announcements may consequence from slower rotation of offers, longer sales times and a decrease in interest in buying housing", she pointed out Milena Chełchowska from Otodom in conversation with PAP. This is the smallest increase year-on-year throughout 2025, suggesting a clear run-out of supply in the secondary marketplace and a increasing reluctance of owners to offer properties under current conditions. The secondary market, which was a driving force only recently, is now clearly slowing down.

Among the largest cities, Wrocław turned out to be a leader of inheritances on a monthly basis, with the number of fresh notices reduced by 10.4 percent. Kraków and Warsaw recorded identical drops of 5 percent each. These data show that the weakening of the secondary marketplace is of a national nature and is not limited to circumstantial regions. Housing owners are likely to refrain from selling, expecting better marketplace conditions or price reductions, which further reduces liquidity in this section of the market.

Buying time? Real property in 2025 under scrutiny

Paradoxically, the current situation in the real property marketplace may prove to be favourable to possible purchasers of housing. A larger selection of available offers (an increase of 30% a year), expanding force on price reductions, especially in the individual offer segment, and the caution of developers who adjust supply to real demand, make conditions in which buyers can have a much stronger negotiating position. Time force to make fast purchasing decisions decreases significantly, allowing for a more detailed analysis of offers and negotiation of terms.

Despite the June declines, yearly housing sales increased by 9 percent compared to June 2024. This consequence may lead to cautious optimism in the forecasts for the second half of 2025, although experts stress that without crucial marketplace impulses, specified as further interest rate cuts by the Monetary Policy Council or changes in bank regulations on mortgage lending, the situation may deteriorate even further. The deficiency of specified incentives can plunge the marketplace into stagnation and the developers force deeper price adjustments, which will yet translate into greater benefit for buyers. Now, in the face of a slowdown, it might be the best time to look for opportunities.