In fresh days, the American defence Intelligence Agency has published a one-page study on the threat assessment in the context of the creation of the alleged Golden Dome, which was called upon by US president Donald Trump in January. It is worth noting the improvement of this document, despite its tiny volume.
Despite Trump's last declaration, which announced on May 20, that the Golden Dome would emergence before the end of his term, that it would cost $175 billion and supply protection to the United States against ballistic and hypersonic missiles fired from anywhere in the world, it is not truly possible to answer the question present erstwhile and in what form this strategy will rise. The far-reaching thought can be compared with the Reaganian “Star Wars”, the strategical Defence Initiative (SDI). So it is worth reminding a small bit of history.
The first study calling for systems capable of combating ballistic threats was created in the US as early as the summertime of 1945, which was the consequence of an analysis of the application German V-2 rockets against Britain. At that stage, of course, insufficient technology stood in the way, but work on specified systems continued. The names Thumper, Wizard, Nike-Zeus, Sentinel, Safeguard were recorded in history. However, in a time of atomic fear, the ability to defend was more dangerous than the ability to attack. The consequence of this fact was the signing in 1972 of the ABM agreement to limit the improvement of anti-balistic systems. In turn, the announcement of the implementation of the SDI de facto meant its break-up. "Star Wars" nevertheless remained only a project, Ronald Reagan's vision, which genuinely feared the atomic apocalypse. Another program, known under the acronym GPALS, was more limited in its assumptions, as was the NMD program developed during the presidency of Bill Clinton and its continuation program rocket defence (MD), implemented by George W. Bush after he abandoned the ABM strategy (2001/2002). The United States is presently capable of defending against a limited or involuntary atomic attack. However, the Golden Dome is to go a fewer steps further.
If we look at this DIA report, it is simply a surprise to see the list of countries, China and Russia from which the Golden Dome is to defend the US territory. So far as the rocket shield is concerned, Washington has assured that there are no plans to grow it to specified size as to endanger the strategical atomic arsenals of these powers. This communicative has been consistently maintained since the 1990s. present both China and Russia can unfortunately say that their fears before the quarter-century were legitimate. And looking at this document, it is impossible to defy the impression that China is the driving force behind the plans of the fresh administration, not just in this area. According to the DIA, the mediate State already prevails over Russia in terms of the number of intercontinental land based missiles (ICBM) and hypersonic and maneuvering missiles. Russia only subsides in terms of the number of missiles carried by submarines, but by 2035 and in this area, there will be a levelling of arsenals (it should be stressed that Russia inactive has more warheads). Moreover, reports on the fast expansion of the Chinese atomic arsenal have been appearing for respective years. Trump wants to throw a fresh challenge to Beijing, possibly hoping for a akin effect as in the case of the russian Union, which fell, among another things, due to the costs incurred in the arms race. Only that China present has a much stronger economy than the USSR and is more innovative than it is.
It is hard to imagine that specified a complex strategy – or, in fact, a strategy of systems – as the Golden Dome, was created in 3 years. Experts point out that the possible of 7-10 years is more likely, although only any elements will arise, not the mark version. And it surely won't cost just $175 billion. According to the estimates of legislature budget office, spending will scope $831 billion over 2 decades, and it should be remembered that in the case of almost all modern arms program over the years expenditures increase, frequently rather significantly. Nevertheless, the direction has been given, the work is slow moving, and it is improbable that anything will change this decision. The planet is increasingly entering the era of the second atomic arms race.
While president Bush was trying to leave the ABM system, Senator Joe Biden, who then held Senator's mandate, said that the consequence could be to grow the Chinese ICBM arsenal from about 20 to 800 rounds. In retrospect, this was an highly accurate assessment.
