We decided to reduce the parameters of military exercises "Zapad" 25 and to decision its main maneuvers into the territory of the Republic of Belarus, further from the western borders," announced the head of the Belarusian Defence Ministry Viktor Chrenin. This is to be a "gift of goodwill" towards NATO countries and to show "ready to dialog and reduce tensions in the region".
– Honestly, we're doing this without expecting a constructive answer. We are doing more to show our allies and partners around the planet a truly peaceful position of the Republic of Belarus," argued Belarusian defence minister Viktor Chrenin. This declaration was made on 28 May in the capital of Kyrgyzstan Bishkek during the gathering of the Post-Soviet Organization of the Collective safety Agreement.
Offensive scenarios in NATO
Belarusian-Russian ‘Zapad’ 25’ is scheduled for September. It will be officially attended by up to 13,000 soldiers (above this limit the maneuvers would gotta take place under the supervision of global observers), but – according to experts – it can actually be up to 100,000 people. Most troops will practice distant from Belarus, in deep Russia, until now it was assumed that part of the group would be moved to the border with Poland and the Baltic States. It caused NATO concerns. concerning unintended incidents and intentional provocations. Minsk and Moscow keep that maneuvers are not directed against anyone. However, these assurances are at odds with erstwhile exercises, where offensive scenarios were besides implemented against the border states of the Alliance.
The tense global situation is fueling concern about military activity at the borders of Poland. Therefore, the decision of the Polish authorities to organise their own exercises in consequence to ‘Zapad’ 25. As the head of the MON Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz informed, these will be the “Iron Defender” maneuvers involving 18th Mechanized Division, besides scheduled for September. We are talking about division exercises, which will affect most of the respective 1000 soldiers of this tactical union. “The “eighty” will be full ready to show their own abilities and skills, including with the participation of our allies”, said Deputy Prime Minister Kosiniak-Kamish at the beginning of this week.
Concentration under the appearance of exercise
Belarusian declarations do not affect the calendar of Polish exercises. The Belarusian authorities have repeatedly withdrawn from their promises or deliberately made false statements. Minsk and Moskov proceed to build a false image of countries seeking peaceful solutions. In this context, it is worth mentioning the erstwhile edition of the “Zapad” exercise, which took place in 2021. These were the largest manoeuvres in Europe since the russian Union broke up, involving about 200,000 soldiers, 80 aircraft and helicopters, 290 tanks and 15 ships. Under the pretext of the exercise, troops were dislocated to Belarus and western Russia, which were then utilized to invade Ukraine.
However, it cannot be ruled out that the format of this year's "fall" will indeed be smaller. The Soviets are exhibiting more training units, and their land troops are now almost entirely active in Ukraine. The first exercises of the series took place inactive in the times of the USSR (in 1973), they were later discontinued, and in the fresh formula, all 4 years, they have been implemented since 2009. In addition to investigating the mobilisation and cooperation of the russian armies, their overriding goal was to show the force of the Russian Federation. In Ukraine, Putin's military present suffers from equipment shortages, so it is possible that not only would it not be who, but besides what "demonstration of forces". There is yet another competitive explanation of the ‘depletion of parameters’ of this year’s ‘fall’, in peculiar its shift into Belarus. Moscow – for which Minsk is only a subcontractor – may be about repeating the manoeuvre 4 years ago. Concentration under the impression of exercise. Ukrainian intelligence has long warned against the script of re-tracing Russians from the area of Belarus.
