Each election day, a akin situation is repeated. At 21 o'clock, the premises are closed, and at the same time, the largest tv stations present the first results of the vote. Although this is not authoritative data provided by the State Election Commission, both commentators and politicians consider it valid.
Exit poll poll polls have permanently entered the electoral scenery of many countries. They depend on filling out forms by voters Right after the vote. This way you can be very precise estimate final results all parties or candidates. In Poland this survey is carried out by Ipsos, providing data to the media.
SEE: "Electoral Night: Poland Chooses. Presidential Election 2025" in Polsata and Polsat Group channels
The company explains that the full task is based on sending pollers to 500 randomly selected polling venues In the country. Randomity does not mean randomness, due to the fact that the pool of these places is chosen taking into account the voivodship and the size of the village.
"If, for example, agrarian premises account for 40% of all voting circuits in Poland, then besides in the example there will be about 40 percent of them" - emphasises the investigation institute.
Exit poll. Key anonymous surveys
In the selected points, all tenth individual is asked to vote for filling out an anonymous survey. Participation in the survey is voluntary. The voters declare, among others, for which the candidate has voted. This procedure allows Generalisation of results from an effort on the full population voting with a advanced probability of relevance.
Although there are plenty of materials, already at the end of the vote media have preliminary estimates. This is thanks to modern technologies.
SEE: Presidential election 2025. Who can't vote in the second circular of elections?
Surveyors utilizing special applications in smartphones, send the data straight to the control panel. There they are analyzed by a squad of specialists supported by advanced IT systems. This allows the results to be announced right after closing the premises, at 9 p.m..
Exit poll results are characterized by High aptness. Ipsos indicates that in 2019, the consequence of the PiS was estimated to be 0.1 percent points. 4 years later, the average mistake was 0.78 percent points. After the first circular of the presidential election on 18 May 2025, the differences between the forecast and the authoritative results of the leading 3 candidates were About 0.5 percent points.
A reliable score, but it's inactive a poll.
However, it is noted that is not an infallible forecast. The statistical mistake is assumed to be within about +/- 2 percent points. What does that mean? For example, if the party's support suggests that the electoral threshold of 5% is exceeded, until authoritative results are announced There will be no certaintyIf she gets into the Sejm.
"With a very even electoral fight, the exit poll results supply us with more information with a tie temper and very akin support of committees or candidates than about the clear triumph of 1 of the parties" - the poller besides notes.
SEE: What penalties for violating election silence in the second circular of election 2025?
Therefore, in the case of fierce competition, as announced on 1 June between Rafał Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki, preliminary data may not indicate a clear winner.
Late in the evening, after the exit poll is published, the so-called. Late poll. This is simply a version of the estimates updated with authoritative data from selected electoral commissions. This allows even more accurate results forecasts.
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