Political vehicle of Poland: who is on and who is below?

We are approaching the half-meter of the current parliamentary word with large steps. It's been a rough 2 years. From a political point of view, without indicating a clear winner of the 2 decades of war between Kaczyński and Tuski.

We have swordsmen shouting “to Moscow” too. Both in KO and its appetizers and in PiS. On the another hand, there is the Confederate and Crown of Braun – and this fresh division can become permanent. And if so, we must prepare again for the confusion in the car. any will be on, any under. Only will this car – most importantly – stay Polish, after those RVs that are behind us and which are ahead of us?
The first year after the 2023 election, and more precisely until the summertime of 2024, is the period of strong entry of Donald Tusk's squad – the negation from the PiS offices and institutions of the predecessors, utilizing methods, as the Prime Minister of the ruling centre called it – a fighting democracy. We saw this even after the way we entered TVP, Polish Radio and PAP. It was besides a period of strong failure of the formation of Jarosław Kaczyński. 1 could say – a state of stunningness. The organization chose the strategy of the besieged fortress. This was best seen after intensive defence of the arrested Kamiński and Wąsik. The strategy was erroneous due to the fact that it understood only for the toughest core of Jarosław Kaczyński's party. Which was rapidly confirmed in the falling polls.

Besides, not only the Law and Justice had a hard start in 2024. Nor was the Confederate able to realize how it happened that even more than six months earlier she had been on the course and on the way to drive a wedge into the duopol, and within 2 months the full surplus built in the 2023 run had evaporated. But since the opposition's right was not doing well, it means that the days of triumph must have been among those who were on the another side of the political barricade. And the triumphant one, though he would very much like it, was not Prime Minister Tusk himself. Despite the powerful media support that was to build, as after 2007, the image of an effective one, listening to the voices of Polish and Polish man of providence, was the time of the talker of the Sejm Simon Holownia. He rapidly found himself at the top of the rankings, pulling about 20 percent of the 3rd Road. For a minute on the horizon, a long-awaited alternate to PO-PIS appeared. The same PO-Prit must have been very worrying.

Country Lawyers: Szymon Chmielewski and Kacper K. Krawczyk – Intellectual property

However, alternatively of hiding on the centre right, where the 3rd Road had quite a few potential, Szymon Hołownia entered into the function described to him by Donald Tusk, the face of clash with the opposition, including the PiS-owska. Donald Tusk's slow play “to destroy” Simon Holownia accelerated before the Euro-election of 2024. In liberal media there were besides attacks on the second leader of the 3rd Way, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz. How did it end? Donald Tusk got free of the competition in the liberal center, and while taking over any of the voters, he realized after many years the dream of winning the election from the PiS. However, in war, shrapnel is different. The extinguishing of the 3rd Way besides resulted in side effects in the form of the Confederacy's enlistment of a large part of its voters. any things started then have their continuation today.
Let's sum up the first months after the 2023 election. The position of PiS after the first decline stabilised to 30% of support. The consequence did not return to this before the election, as part of the voters of the Jarosław Kaczyński organization switched to the Confederation. The civilian Coalition grew at the expense of the 3rd Way and to a lesser degree the Left. Simon Holovnia and the 3rd Road in six months traveled from heaven to hell. The Confederacy's weak after the election caught a large breath due to the problems of the 3rd Way and the Law and Justice. The Left gave any of the support that the Civic Coalition benefited from.
The governing centreleft was able to scope the vacation of 2024. The burn was just getting a small bit fast. The “use” of the Prime Minister and the government and the increasing fatigue of the ruling did not yet look dramatic. The decision was then made: since it is not the worst, it is essential to scope presidential elections on this fuel, in which – as in the case of Komorowski – the favourite seems obvious. It was Donald Tusk's decision and his political-media background, taken without reflection on how a akin strategy ended for the Liberal camp in 2015 and later besides in 2020. Since the PiS was stifled – without TVP, without subsidies, immersed in the past – it was as many of the fighting sociology, Sierakowski and Sadura wrote, “Trzaskowski is driving on a road to victory.” In the next fewer months, however, there was a control of seats on the cart again: those who were under were on the mountain, and those who were on the mountain fell under.

The presidential election was expected to concrete the strategy for at least a decade. And indeed – for 2 hours it looked like this: from announcing the preliminary results of the II circular to the time erstwhile the data from the committee were given. It was 11:00 and everything turned around. The winner was Karol Nawrocki – a candidate supported by PiS, but, crucially, besides with the support of the majority of Confederate and Crown voters Braun, and even part of the sympathies of Simon Holown, Adrian Zandberg or Magdalena Biejat. While the Euro-election of 2024 hit the 3rd Road and pressed the Left to the threshold, presidential elections, with the large defeat of Holownia, the weak consequence of Biejat and the failure of Trzaskovsky, hit the centreleft hard. But the another side clearly recovered.

First – PiS, who lacked a deeper breath. The organization again stabilised at 30% – the vide consequence of Karol Nawrocki from the first round. Secondly, everything to the right of the Law. Sławomir Mentzen and Grzegorz Braun gained a full of over 21 percent, which confirmed a clear shift of political sympathy in Poland to the right.

However, since the election, the ruling centre lion has been struggling. This hand from May and June finds its confirmation in the polls today. Yes, the Civic Coalition has higher support than in 2023 and even leads in rivalry with the PiS. But at what cost? The 3rd Road broke up – Poland 2050 balances at 1%, and PSL seldom exceeds 3%. Both formations have no prospects of overcoming the electoral threshold. Additionally, the Left, from which the organization of Together has separated, persists somewhat above the threshold, but without the certainty that it will actually exceed it. Together, which after Adrian Zandberg's election feat gained for a while, in fresh months she has importantly lowered flights.

At the beginning of 2024, the full centre was able to number to more than 270 seats in the Sejm, after calculating the polls per ticket. And then? A period after a month, it's getting lower. The breakdown of the 3rd Way and the weakness of its component parties made present the Civic Coalition with the Left not even 200 tickets. So who would have the majority? Theoretically, the PiS and the Confederacy have remained in 250–280 for months. But it's just a theory. What is located on the right from the center began to gain after the Euro elections of 2024, and then in the presidential run of 2025 with its happy Conservative final, does not gotta translate into a consequence in the next round.
Since the centre-right felt strong – and there are reasons for it – the line was dragged. Both are convinced that they can win the duel for full control of the right side of the stage. But we know it's not gonna happen. As long as Jarosław Kaczyński is full healthy, the PiS will not fall into respective games. This means that in the current state the organization can keep the area of 30%.

BUDGETARY CATASTROPHY?! Prof. Modzelewski: Poland on the brink of bankruptcy

The Confederacy, which had already entered respective percent in the Euro elections of 2024, retained this level – as confirmed by Sławomir Mentzen in the first presidential circular – despite the divorce with the Crown Grzegorz Braun, balancing around 5 percent today. Donald Tusk almost completely got free of the competition on the centreleft – gaining for his camp, but risking moving to the opposition after 2027. Jarosław Kaczyński just attempted to extort rivals. But unlike Tusk, he has a much harder job. The hard right, the 1 from the Confederate and Crown, has stronger roots than PL2050, PSL, Left or Together. Not only due to the fact that the social moods moved to the right, but besides due to the fact that it had not ruled – this is simply a immense bonus in Polish conditions.
If in 2 years, what I am talking about, so much has changed in Polish politics – with those who erstwhile under a wagon, erstwhile on a wagon – just imagine what the future might look like. And times won't be any more peaceful. I mean global affairs and their impact on the national scene. Today, formally, we have a division into the ruling centre lion and right-wing opposition. But it doesn't should be that way in a fewer months. If the increasingly desperate organization to war in Poland pushes the pedal, the arrangement of forces can change completely.

GREEN: A MAN OF HIS LIFE PRIME ACHIEVES AFTER 45 YEARS

Because speaking of the partisans of war, I am aware – and you besides – that swordmen shouting "on Moscow" have more than enough. Both in KO and its appetizers and in PiS. On the another hand, there is the Confederate and Crown of Braun – and this fresh division can become permanent. And if so, we must prepare again for the confusion in the car. any will be on, any under. Only will this car – most importantly – stay Polish, after those RVs that are behind us and which are ahead of us?