Keno Verseck
The second circular of presidential elections in Romania will face the utmost right-wing George Simion and pro-European Liberal Nicosor Dan. If Simion wins, it could plunge Europe into crisis.
George Simion and Calin Georgescu, Fot. thefad.pl / AI
"Democracy or Non-liberalism", "Europe or Isolation", "Mathematician vs. Chuligan" – specified headlines and categorizations now appear in almost all independent Romanian media. A fewer days before the second decisive circular of the Romanian presidential elections, which will take place next Sunday (18 May 2025), social sentiments are more tense than always in fresh decades. Without exception, all commentators and observers see the country at a crossroads, at an crucial historical point.
In fact, no presidential election since the fall of the communist dictatorship in 1989/90 has been characterised by specified a extremist contrast between candidates and as deep social divisions as the present. seldom was the consequence of the vote so hard to predict. Both candidates stress that they are not part of the ‘system’ and do not represent conventional Romanian post-communist parties.
Towards chaos
On the 1 hand, George Simion, 38, leader of the far-right, pro-Russian organization Alliance for the Unity of Romanians (AUR), erstwhile football hooligan, now declared "supergenist" and supporter of Donald Trump and Viktor Orbán. He won the first circular of the presidential election on 4 May 2025 with a large advantage, scoring nearly 41 percent of the vote.
His rival is Nicosor Dan, 55, the partyless mayor of Bucharest, a mathematician, erstwhile anti-corruption activist and a supporter of clearly pro-European, liberal (although partially moderately conservative) course. In the first round, he placed far behind Simion, scoring only 21 percent of the vote.
The stakes of these elections are advanced for both Romania and Europe. Romania is the sixth largest EU country and the largest South-East European country. It has the longest EU border with Ukraine, the most crucial NATO base and the most crucial rocket shield in the region. She has been a reliable and predictable partner in the EU and NATO so far. With the pro-Russian president with utmost right-wing views, the situation can radically change – Romania can plunge into chaos resembling the U.S. situation in Trump's time.
Uncertain polls
The president does not exercise a strong executive authority in Romania, but serves as Chief Commander of the Armed Forces and president of the ultimate Council of National Defence (CSAT). It appoints the Prime Minister, the heads of the 2 most crucial peculiar services and any judges of the Constitutional Court, and besides represents Romania in the EU and NATO. He can attend government meetings. All of this has a crucial impact on both interior and abroad policies.
In most polls over the past 2 weeks, Simion led – erstwhile slightly, another time clearly. In 1 of the latest studies, the score was tied. However, electoral forecasts in Romania are highly unreliable – no institute has predicted specified a clear triumph for Simion in the first round.
Simion's abrupt Return
In fresh years, the leader of AUR has been on the front page of newspapers with radical, sometimes physically aggressive speeches. He regularly announced that he would "destroy the system". Sometimes directly, sometimes somewhat little directly, he suggested leaving the EU and NATO, as well as joining Moldova and the south-western territories of Ukraine to Romania. His pro-Russian sympathies and nationalist rhetoric towards the Hungarian national number caused widespread controversy.
Recently, Simion has abruptly calmed down. For its standards – it keeps calm, avoids profanity and screaming. He no longer talks about leaving the EU and NATO, but about the "esteem and dignity of Romania", which he claims will be a partner "at the level of the eyes and not on the knees."
However, anti-Ukrainian propaganda remained – among others, spreading lies about alleged favoritism of refugees from Ukraine. The fact that Simion has limited cognition of administration, the economy, EU policies, abroad affairs and defences has not changed either.
Orban, Hungarians and the paradox of history
Surprisingly, Simion received support from Viktor Orbán, who praised him in his run speech for his sovereignty policy. For the first time in years this caused tension with the Hungarian national number organization in Romania – UDMR. The group sharply distanced themselves from Simion due to his earlier attacks on Hungarians and called on about 1.2 million Romanian Hungarians to vote for Nicosor Dan.
Hating the System
Dan promises a pro-European course, based on the regulation of law, transparency and support for Ukraine. As mayor of Bucharest, he showed that he could carry out reforms – although he did not meet all the announcements. The problem is his excessive caution. He can be superb in debates with Simion, but he frequently avoids confrontation.
He announced that if he wins, he will appoint Ilie Bolojana – an experienced local government official, erstwhile mayor of Oradea as Prime Minister. The problem is that Bolojan is simply a long-standing activist of the National-Liberal organization (PNL), and thus part of the hated by many Romanians establishment. It could weaken Dan's chances.
Meanwhile, Simion – although portrayed as a “system slayer” – actually represents the continuation of the national-Stalinian model of power inherited from Ceausescu, whose echoes proceed in the structures of the AUR party. It is said that he was to appoint as Prime Minister of Calin Georgescu – a pro-Russian ezotericist and erstwhile associate of the regime.
Georgescu, an utmost right-wing politician, was banned from moving for president. He owes his career to erstwhile Ceausescu diplomats and erstwhile Securitate agents. Sam points to Mircea Malita, a longtime Romanian ambassador to the UN and the US, as 1 of her mentors. According to reports, Georgescu besides maintained ties to General Securitate Mihai Caraman's network – erstwhile abroad intelligence chief and NATO spy.
Citizen activist and erstwhile oppositionist Gabriel Andreescu summarizes in an essay: “The triumph of George Simion would be the final phase of resurrecting the erstwhile communist power networks.”
