Who will strike first in the south of Ukraine? [COMMENTARY]

During the last week, in the Mariupol-Berdiańsk-Melitopol-Nowa Kachówka areas, the movement of Russian military vehicles has been reported. Moscow is besides expected to shift forces from the east Military territory to Crimea to the confederate front (including the Pontoon-bridge unit and air-desant troops). There is much talk about the possible offensive of Ukrainians in the south. In this test of strength, who will strike first?