Russia's overestimated strength, Ukraine's underestimated resistance. A case survey of Dutch intelligence before Russia's invasion of Ukraine (Part II)

In the first part of the analysis, devoted to the assessment of the Dutch intelligence services before the Russian invasion of Ukraine https://defence24.pl/wojna-na-ukrainie-raport-specjalny-defence24/od-sygnalow-wojny-do-blednej-oceny-studium-przypadku-holenderskiego-wywiadu-przed-inwazja-rosji-na-ukraine), the mechanisms that led to the misrecognition of Moscow's intentions are presented. The case of the AIVD and the MIVD showed that even valuable sources of information and a advanced level of operational reconnaissance do not warrant accurate conclusions if the analytical process is dominated by fixed assumptions and besides much certainty of the explanation adopted.