Since Monday morning everything is clear: Sunday as fresh president, Poles elected Karol Nawrocki, which in the second circular of elections defeated Rafał Trzaskowski by 50.89 percent to 49.11 percent.
Weakness of regional division
– From the position of my specialty, with the difference of little than 400 1000 votes among candidates, for the analysis of social divisions and factors influencing the behaviour of voters, it does not substance who won these elections – said prof. Wojciech Rafałowski, sociologist of politics from the University of Warsaw. – Also, if the winner turned out to be Trzaskowski, with specified a difference Poland would besides stay profoundly divided.
For Prof. Rafałowski the most interesting reflection is Weakness of regional division to strengthen the urban-rural division.
– erstwhile we look at the map of the voivodships we have regional victories of Trzaskowski from the north-west and triumphs of Nawrock from the south-east, to the Łódź Voivodeship inclusive. But this is simply a certain illusion, which we will learn about erstwhile we go to the level of the counties – says the sociologist.
Why is it an illusion?
– In the cities, even those 50,000 win Trzaskowski, but the origin of Nawrocki's final triumph is agrarian areas in most Poland. Nawrocki has an overwhelming advantage on them: with exceptions specified as the Zachodniopomorskie, Lubuskie or northern part of Wielkopolska.
The sociologist adds that life kind and values – not the pure division of the village-city – are important: it was Trzaskowski who won in agrarian areas surrounding Warsaw, due to the fact that their residents work in the capital and feel like participants in its life.
Prof. Rafalowski adds that he was amazed by Nawrocki's triumph in 2 youngest groups of voters: between the ages of 18-29 and 30-39 (according to the Sunday exit poll Ipsos in the first of them Nawrocki scored 51.9 percent, in the second: 51.5 percent).
– This could be a sign of the failure of young people without visible attempts by the current government to carry out their demands, who were helped to gain power by a large turnout in 2023," says the sociologist.
"The younger-older division is becoming increasingly important"
The subject of young people is developed by Dr Maciej Onasz, a political scientist from the University of Lodz. At the same time, he returns to the first circular in which Sławomir Mentzen won 34.8% of the vote in the youngest age group of the years, while Adrian Zandberg – 18.7% (according to the summertime poll Ipsos 2 weeks ago). In Dr. Onas' opinion, the “system” parties (PO, PiS, PSL, Nowa Lewica and Poland 2050) will lose to young people until they find an agreement with this group.
Raphael Guz / PAPAdrian Zandberg
– The division of younger-olders is becoming increasingly important, says the political scientist. "This generational conflict is simply a worldwide phenomenon, affecting all developed countries. Its scale depends, among another things, on the public policy pursued: education, housing, labour market.
According to Dr. Onas Young people in Poland believe that “the strategy limits them, does not let them to develop, and does not represent their interests”.
– Young people have a strong sense of failure to meet the promises of the system: they were told to learn, and present they gotta work 16 hours to barely hold on. They cannot afford an apartment, credit is unavailable, and promotion paths blocked by older workers," says the political scientist. – And even if a organization specified as the Confederate proclaims unfavourable demands for young people, for example paid studies, it can gain their support if it hits an imagined sense of interest: due to the fact that it, alternatively than real calculation, shapes election decisions.
How does Dr. Onas comment on the division of the voices of young people in the second round, somewhat more favorable to Nawrocki?
– The group, which advocated Trzaskowski, is mostly voting against Nawrock and, in fact, against the Law and Justice, due to the social memory of the party's 8 years and at least limiting abortion rights in Poland," states the political scientist. – In turn, the young people who now support Nawrocki in reality have spoken against the present establishment, precisely due to the strong feeling of failure that I mentioned earlier. But if this establishment was now Nawrock camp, most likely the same young people would vote for Trzaskowski.
PAP/Paweł SupernakRafał Trzaskowski (1 June)
"These elections stay identity"
On the another hand, Dr Paweł Kowalski, a political marketing expert at the University of Łódź, draws attention to the division among young people, resulting from the size of the centres from which they come. The strongest support for Mentzen in this demographic group is, as Dr. Kowalski states, the feature of smaller cities, where young people emphasize the limitations of the function of the state, at least as regards taxes. At the same time, they anticipate to defend the labour marketplace from immigrants.
In large cities Zandberg could match Mentzen, due to the fact that the young electorate there has any another concerns, though besides related to the labour market.
Titus Żmijewski / PAPSławomir Mentzen
– For example, regarding the ongoing phenomenon of the alleged garbage contracts or the introduction of artificial intelligence into companies, which may be affected by labour rights," says Dr. Kowalski. “There is besides a deficiency of prospects for buying your own apartment, or problems with renting.
For a political marketing expert surprise was the attitude of the oldest group of voters (60 plus), which in the second circular divided almost precisely half (50.1% to 49.9%) for Nawrocki, according to Sunday exit poll Ipsos). Dr. Kowalski expected stronger support for the PiS candidate in this group.
– However, summing up, these elections remained identity – says Dr. Kowalski. – Poles did not vote for Nawrocki or Trzaskowski, but for the systems of values behind them. This means either conservative Poland, rooted in tradition and order, or liberal order with its openness or secularity of public life. Individual features of candidates came down with specified ideology and specified an identity vote for the next plan.
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