What happens to the unexpected and what will affect Poland? Is anyone analyzing this?
If individual watched the apocalyptic horror of planet War Z, he most likely missed 1 scene from Israel, in which a key politician/official explained why this country prepared for an epidemiological scenario. Well, there were inactive types of think tanks that analysed various scenarios – even the most improbable and prepared possible options – so nothing Israel should surprise. It's a small more film-making than it is, due to the fact that Hamas' unexpected attacks may have amazed these mythical think tank and quite a few experts, and possibly Israel has late overslept, due to the fact that I remember a good more than a decade ago during the next intifada (Palestinian uprising) I heard a comment from serious Israeli politicians who said that we had to prepare for the problem and riots over a period of 4-6 years, which would then gradually cease (and indeed happened). Shocking was this horizon of predictions – something was planned for many years before considering different scenarios and impact on people's lives, something that does not happen in us, due to the fact that the horizon of reasoning is the next election (in Poland in 3 months). Therefore, it may be worth to think more and below a example of 5 events/trends that can change the planet and have a strong impact on Poland and the economy. Of course, I hope there's any mythical government think tank that already has a script for countermeasures...
Electricity and electrical cars – a strong hit in Polish industry.
Technological changes are inevitable. Regardless of comments on battery problems, more energy consumption in winter, problems with access to uncommon earth elements... electrical cars are the future. The full of Europe will shift to a zero-emission drive, and this will most likely happen sooner than the date 2035 shown. The change in European production is already visible today, and in a minute all the “old cars” factories will vanish – namely diesel engines, then petrol engines, then most of the old models, at the end of the full chain of service stations and petrol stations. The automotive manufacture in Poland – and this is over PLN 200 billion a year and the full trend is increasing – will shortly halt and it is not known if it will be able to capture fresh models and a fresh full automated way of production. The theoretically possible problem and the evasive technological train is seen in any government initiatives – previously the Electromobility Act and the desire to cover Poland with a network of fresh chargers and then a million fresh electrical cars in 2025. The problem is already, and even the facade of action, unfortunately already cracked at the beginning, due to the fact that there are neither many charging stations nor any Polish cars apart from colorful images.
Artificial intelligence in teaching and working – time to change the model of education.
The fact that AI will change our work is obvious. For those who do not appreciate it, there is no chance to save. The fresh industrial revolution – comparable to the industrial revolution of steam machinery (and then occupation cuts with textile machines in England) will bring a complete re-evaluation of the labour marketplace – this time in the white collar sector. In the next decade, it will be revealed that up to 30-50 % of positions in administration, sales, consulting, controlling, etc. – that is, the alleged office work will be reduced and another jobs will require completely different qualifications. Without dealing with the AI itself and its impact on manufacture (this is where any fresh government council has been created and will surely manage) it is worth reasoning about a thorough prioritization of the education program, and this at all levels. The current model of memory learning and repetition of patterns will become completely useless. I encourage all colleagues in the educational sector to execute a simple test and usage ChatGPT to solve their home tasks and tests for students and students. 80% of the material is processed and 90% of the tasks are solved – which shows that our (whole world) model of education is no longer up to date. alternatively of fighting – you gotta get utilized to and concentrate not like repeating AI actions (we will not win with it), but how to effectively usage it and how to make unique abilities. The first countries will win, the ones that will stay – they will face rising unemployment – in the administrative and "white collars".
Fentanyl (new drugs) on the streets...
Something that is even overlooked and absent from discussion – due to the fact that as in a highly conservative home country, there may be a drug problem. Meanwhile, the tsunami is already on the shore – just look at the US. The problem is simply a immense fresh generation of drugs (just fentanyl – the accomplishment of modern pharmacology, which rapidly descended to the underground) spread across the streets of large (but besides tiny cities). Shocking images from the centres of large cities, where under tents or just in dumpsters you can see people who have turned from a average way of life and utilizing fentanyl or meth they are rolling into successive circles of hell. The U.S. problem is truly gigantic, fentanyl is repeatedly stronger than morphine (even 100 times), rapidly addictive and the control of production by drug gangs, put on the marketplace an uncontrolled, highly harmful drug at a very low price. The scale of addiction (as well as overdose accidents) is very large and increasing even faster, due to the fact that the problem of drugs in the US is not only large cities, but besides a state where coronavirus times favored consumption at home and just like commercial “delivery” it besides developed these drugs – mafia. There is no hope that the wave will halt – in Europe we will besides have fentanyl drugs on all corner of the street, or possibly a drug dealer in schools. Those who think that drugs in Poland are not a problem, and those are the old times of Monaru and poppy fields, have complete flaps in their eyes and do not see that it is simply a developed strategy and average drugs are available in Poland today. The Fentanyl problem will be 1 of the large addictions of the full highly developed planet and something that may even be a stop-over of civilization's development. Meanwhile, again (as with boosters) any reaction will happen erstwhile we have addicts on the streets and a professional trading strategy for all modern drug chemistry to choose from. Time is already in both the maximum education in schools (fentanyl is simply a truly large crap and marijuana at the same time is just a trifle), but besides above all marketplace control and elimination of production. The problem, as always, is anyone always gonna notice...
Ukraine (and possibly Belarus) in the EU? Did anyone make simulations for agriculture and industry?
The images from the war in Ukraine have been common and no 1 is taking up news of subsequent battles in Ukrainian trenches. The war has besides become scarcely "medial", journalists are bored of describing the reflection of respective square kilometres of territory and only thousands of victims on both sides have a somewhat different view of this war. So we halt reasoning about conflict, but... the war will end. The war in Ukraine can end even faster than we think. What's next? It is clear that Ukraine is joining the European marketplace (early or later besides NATO and the EU itself). Does anyone even think and build scripts what it means for Poland? The full deficiency of competitiveness of native agriculture in the average production model (it is worth looking at what was done with wheat, sugar and another products if EU borders are open). Polish agriculture has no chance with Ukrainian competition – it is worth looking at the size of Ukrainian farms, production costs and dirt quality. The problem is already visible throughout Europe, and if Ukraine enters this marketplace – the agricultural disaster is inevitable (but of course we will worry tomorrow). Meanwhile, Poland should already control to niche, ecological products and to a unique economy which cannot be flooded by large-format farms. The problem will be, but it can always be smaller – worth it sooner than later. likewise with industrial production and (potentially) the inclusion of Belarus in the western economical cycle. Industrial production in Belarus (and Ukraine) can again be cheaper and more competitive – the function of Poland as an industrial heart of the EU can be very threatened. Again – mass robotics, transition to a higher level of manufacturing, incentives for investors and a hard fight for markets should be a precedence – but in the form of real alternatively than facade programs and colorful posters.
Crisis 2024 according to Kolmogorov and another major planet problems...
Something that everyone sees under the skin – the planet is no longer the same, and in society there is simply a increasing sense of danger. Whether this is another major economical crisis (here 1 can mention to the works of Kolmogorov, the cyclicalness of the crises and worrying scenarios of 2024 as another – already a gigantic turmoil) or possibly the unpredictableness of leaders (a very advanced probability of Trump's return as president of the United States) or possibly average wars which have spread since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, now to another wave of conflicts in the mediate East involving an expanding number of states to an alarming Asian threat – Taiwan's independency or the usual unpredictable actions of North Korea. The established order of things begins to disintegrate like damaged parts of a decaying watch and subsequent conflicts (and scenarios) can bring appropriate variant hazards. Again, do we have a strategy and a plan? Apart from buying weapons on debt and directing a sense of danger to society, it is most likely worth having a fewer points ready for any eventuality – calling safety Councils after the fact, in a modern planet that changes so rapidly – it is most likely pointless.
I encourage you to think of another scenarios of "the unimaginable" and our leaders to emergence above the momentary political struggles and look more at global threats. It's always better to have a plan than to improvise...
