Yesterday the Ukrainians were expected to start a counter-offensive e in Kherson. The media reports further Ukrainian successes on the Ingulec River line and on the approach of Ukrainian leaders under Kherson. How much fact is there? Let's see.
Ukrainian attack
Yesterday Natalia Humenuk, spokeswoman of the confederate command of the ZSU (Army Forces of Ukraine), reported that the Ukrainian troops began an attack on respective sections of the Kherson Front. Shortly thereafter, this information was confirmed by the president's chief law firm, Andrij Jermak. In a akin speech besides said Alexi Arestowicz, who reported that in any episodes of Ukraine the Ukrainians managed to break Russian defensive lines.
In addition to specified communications about the situation under Cherson, we know little. The information war continues, led by both Russians and Ukrainians.
However, both Russian and Ukrainian sources agree that the Ukrainians attacked yesterday on 5 episodes of the front of Cherson: under Posad-Pokrowske, Blahodatne, Snihurivka, Andrivka and Highpila (see map below). However, it is not known precisely what the consequence of Ukrainian attacks was. Ukrainians have long maintained "information embargo" erstwhile it comes to the news about the clash at Cherson – it is no different this time too.
However, comparing a fewer Ukrainian communications with information from Russian channels, it is very likely that the Ukrainians were successful on the Ingulec River line, specifically around Andriwa (point 4 on the map). Russian sources confirm that, under the force of the opponent, the Russians had to retreat from the village of Suchy Staw. It besides appears that insignificant successes were achieved by Ukrainians in the area of Posad-Pokrowske (point 1 on the map) and advanced Pilina (point 5 on the map).
The situation on the Kherson Front, the Ingulec River was marked bluely with green arrows in the direction of the Ukrainians' attack: Posad-Pakrowske (point 1), Blahomatne (2), Snihurivka (3), Andriwka (4) and Highpila (5), source: miliatarylandBig counteroffensive?
In my opinion, Ukrainian attacks do not mean that the Ukrainian counteroffensive on Kherson, announced for months, has begun. For respective months now, I have pointed out in my reports that there are no indications that the Ukrainians have adequate forces in this direction to push the Russians out of Kherson. Despite the "silence in the ether" which the Ukrainian side retains specified a large concentration of equipment and people would not pass unnoticed – despite all the Russian dilemmas it is worth remembering that, for example, erstwhile Ukrainian lines along the Bachmut-Lisiciansk road (June), Russian sources noticed Ukrainian concentration under Bachmut and correctly recognized it as prepared for counteroffensive.
The successes that Ukrainians had yesterday are local successes that do not change the strategical situation under Cherson.
However, I do not regulation out that the Ukrainian attacks at Cherson were part of a "larger plan" and aimed at checking the state in which Russian logistics is presently located at the Khersonhead.
Last week the Ukrainians – thanks to the HIMARS – damaged the bridge on the dam in Nowa Kachowka, excluding it from use. This is the 3rd and last bridge on Dnieper, which served the Russians to supply their forces by Dniepr (2 bridges in Kherson have been badly damaged before). Now the Russian forces at the Kherson bay are only supplied with temporary crossings through Dniepr – barges and ferries.
Russian logistics will find the further improvement of the situation in the Kherson direction. Ukrainians do not have adequate strength to recapture Chersonia – especially erstwhile the Russians brought crucial meals to the another side of Dnieper a fewer weeks ago (in anticipation of Ukrainian counteroffensive).
If Ukrainians are to win under Cherson, it is only by paralyzing Russian logistics (destroying crossings to Dnieper) and causing panic in the ranks of Russian troops. presently no of these conditions have been met.
The crossings to the Dnieper are damaged adequate that they are not suitable for usage – however, the barges and ferries seem to be adequate for the Russians to meet, at least, any of their needs at the Kherson bay (see how long this will last).
You don't see panic in the Russian ranks either. Despite the simultaneous attacks carried out by Ukrainians on respective episodes of the Kherson Front, The Russians resist, and in any places, they claim, they effort to contract.
Now what?
In my opinion, further fighting on the Kherson steppes can be expected in the following days. Ukrainians will surely besides intensify their attacks on Russian facilities – they have been beating again on bridges in Kherson and Nowa Kachówka since yesterday, as well as attacking the railway line connecting fresh Kachowka with Donbas and Crimea and Russian supply depots on the another bank of Dniepr.
However, I do not believe that the current battles under Cherson constitute the announced large Ukrainian offensive on Kherson.
However, I am not amazed at the Ukrainians that they are so “hot” about the Kherson offensive. Kiev needs success – even if only media. Reports of successes under Cherson increase morale at home and abroad – which is very important, especially now that winter is going on, energy costs are expanding and there are voices in the West about the request to deal with Moscow.
In my opinion, the current situation in Khersonchev will proceed until next year. We have a situation here. On the 1 hand, Ukrainians have asked very large launches of Russian logistics, but inactive do not have adequate forces to capture Kherson himself. On the another hand, the Russians have besides much logistical problems and besides small force to full safe the Kherson's foothold.
