The first period of the authoritative presidential run is coming to an end. We decided to look into the activity of individual candidates and see which of them is the biggest winner and who definitely has no reason to be satisfied.
Rafał Trzaskowski turns right
Prof. Rafał Chwedoruk assessed in an interview with Wprost.pl that in the first phase of the campaign, Rafał Trzaskowski surely has the most reason to be satisfied. – Although government policy may not be conducive to gaining support, the candidate KO has stabilised his hegemony in fresh weeks," said the expert.
In the first period of the run he drew attention Rafal Trzaskowski's turn towards the center and bow to those voters who are definitely not on their way with the left. Hence, words about the fact that "in accordance with the law in force in Poland we have 2 sexes" or the thought of introducing restrictions in the provision of 800 plus for Ukrainians. This second postulate proved to have been hit, as it follows from SW investigation poll for Wprost, the proposal supports as many as 82.1 percent of respondents. Only 7.8% are against it and all tenth of it has no opinion on it.
The Citizen Coalition candidate besides changed his way of speaking. 5 years ago Rafał Trzaskowski stressed the request to strengthen relations with the European Union. Now – although, of course, KO policy continues to emphasize the importance of alliances and the strong position of Poland in Europe – powerfully emphasises the request to put Poland in its own position. “Poland” is becoming increasingly popular in the speeches of the president of Warsaw.
Trzaskowski met Zenk. ♪ On the right side ♪
Quite unexpectedly, the most emotions in the first period of Rafał Trzaskowski's run aroused his Meeting Zenk Martyniuk. The disco-polo star has so far been alternatively associated with TVP Jack Kurski, who has made the leader of the Akcent group his trademark. An innocent conversation would seem to have grown to the rank of national affairs, which politicians from left to right commented on.
This phrase by Rafał Trzaskowski should not be surprising. The reality is that KO politicians have no chance of winning unless they convince average voters. Prof. Rafał Chwedoruk, a political scientist from the University of Warsaw, emphasized in his interview with Wprost.pl that the bow of Rafał Trzaskowski towards voters with more conservative views was “alternative strategy”. – If he wants to win the election, then there is simply no another way, he must be close to the center, close to the average views of the society. Although in fresh years we have seen a liberal-left turn in Poland, the right-wing views are inactive strong – he explained.
By the way, it is worth noting that KO candidate fits his rhetoric into the world's trend, which after Donald Trump's triumph in the U.S. only intensified. Prof. Rafał Chwedoruk noted that "in the issue of migration, political winds in Europe are now blowing in a completely different direction from those of Angela Merkel." "In the case of Ukrainian visitors, fear or unrest does not concern only right-wing voters. These issues are highly crucial for young people and here KO and Rafał Trzaskowski have a large electorate – he explained.
When asked whether besides strong a "right return" could have the other effect and discourage any left-wing voters to the president of Warsaw, the political scientist stated that "these people are not only in the minority, but above all in the second circular they will have no choice, due to the fact that if the candidate's rival is Karol Nawrocki, his views are even more radical."
Sławomir Mentzen “third force” in Poland?
The first period of campaigning for successful surely could passSławomir Mentzen. The Confederate politician, whose programme can be described as “Poland First” (referring to Trump’s “American first”) powerfully strengthened in 3rd position. In many studies his advantage over the 4th at Simon Holovnia bet is almost twice.
The message of the Confederate policy, which emphasizes that “it wants a safe Poland, low taxes, a strong army and tight borders”, goes primarily to young voters. Z a survey conducted by SW investigation for Wprost It appears that It is supported by 25.8% of voters from the age group up to the age of 24 and 21.1% of voters aged 25-34..
As it turns out, Sławomir Mentzen's position did not endanger to announce the election by Grzegorz Braun. erstwhile the Euro MP declared that he was going to run for president, the left side of the political scene collected popcorn to follow the series entitled "Confederal Breakdown".
Those who predicted the fast fall of the party, which was to spread interior conflicts, may feel disappointed, due to the fact that for the minute it is hard to look for any signs of even a small shortness of breath. On the contrary – The vast majority of the polls indicate that the Confederation is presently the 3rd political force in the country.
Consistent as Mentzen
– Sławomir Mentzen has consistently implemented his plan. He can definitely put the start of the run on a successful one. The Confederate candidate can not only number on the support of his party, but besides expand the voter base at the expense of Karol Nawrocki, here are possible flows. The question of how good the poll results will translate into real support, due to the fact that the Confederation has frequently been underestimated in the past," said Dr. Wprost.pl. Olgiard Annusewicz, a political scientist from the University of Warsaw.
Prof. Rafał Chwedoruk added that on the consequence of Sławomir Mentzena may weigh further weeksWhen Grzegorz Braun and Krzysztof Stanowski seriously enter the competition and effort to take distant any support from him.
Falstart of Karol Nawrocki
A small little satisfied with the beginning of his run may be Karol Nawrocki. The candidate supported by the PiS is very active from the very beginning. Almost all day he meets with voters, and even erstwhile he went on a short leave of absence, he declared that “does it for PolandIt’s okay. ”
Bye. it is hard to look for any program requests or solutions proposed by the head of IPN. The views of the head of IPN on many issues besides stay secret. Although Karol Nawrocki talks a lot about worldview issues and changes “polsity” through all cases, it is not truly known what he thinks about economical or strategical issues from the point of view of the state. The reaction of the head of IPN has passed into history, who when asked how he felt about the charges for Marcin Romanowski and his escape to Hungary, he replied with a stoic calmness that he was “not considering anything”, which caused a wave of ridicule.
Much more often, a candidate supported by the PiS appears in the media in the context of scandals. A immense storm was caused by reports of “Gazeta Wyborcza” about possible irregularities in renting an apartment erstwhile he was the head of the Gdańsk museum.
The words of the head of the IPN besides reached outside the borders of Poland. Supported by the Law and Justice, the candidate stated on the air by Polsat News that "he does not see a place for Ukraine in the European Union or in NATO, until the resolution of crucial matters for Poles of civilisation" (he meant the exhumation of victims of Volyn – ed.).
This is simply a position not only incompatible with the line of the current government, but besides with president Andrzej Duda or the vast majority of PiS politicians. The words were echoed by Volodymyr Zelenski..
Nawrocki uses the Church in a campaign?
Another scandal Charles Nawrocki caused after met with fans on Jasna Góra. erstwhile an 11-year-old boy asked the head of the IPN if he would win the election, “he would not let leftist ideology into schools”, fans began chanting the slogan “once with a sickle, erstwhile with a hammer, red rumble”. Comments about implicating the Church in electoral combat and utilizing religion for its own political purposes.
Karol Nawrocki He was besides on the front pages of newspapers after Fr Jan Józwiak publically encouraged the head of the IPN to "measure the right or left consecutive prof. Antoni Dudek". Reason? Historian publically criticized Karol Nawrocki repeatedly, informing among others that "He is an highly dangerous and ruthless personIt’s okay. ”
Duda will not support Nawrocki
The punch for Karol Nawrocki is surely No authoritative support from Andrzej Duda. As established by ‘Rzeczpospolita’, The president does not intend to engage in any way in the IPN chief's campaign. The candidacy itself was to be coldly accepted at the Presidential Palace. 1 associate of the head of state pointed out to Charles Nawrock that "it is incorrect during public appearances and makes a number of mistakes, which makes it hard to believe in his victory."
– Karol Nawrocki's aim is to gain support in the PiS electorate. This has not worked out rather so far, as reports may propose involvement in the election run of Jarosław Kaczyński. Without building a good base among the voters of Law and Justice, Karol Nawrock will be hard to decision on to the next stage, that is, to grow the number of voters," commented Dr. Olgierd Annusewicz.
The hoarding home wants to be a “balance guard”
It is besides hard to talk about run successes in the case of Szymon Holownia. The first 1 definitely didn't shine. The head of Poland 2050 clearly loses support to the 3rd at Sławomir Mentzen's stake.
The Marshal of the Sejm argues that “people are the most important” and that is the main message of his campaign. He wants to show that he is not a politician separated from the world, but a individual who is close to problems affecting Poles specified as increases in prices or difficulties in buying an apartment. Szymon Hołownia points to the message that "Poland needs a balance guard, a fresh quality".
– In the case of Simon Holownia, this run is not dynamic yet.There's not much going on. I am not saying that the talker of the Sejm does not lead it, but the effects of its activity are not visible – said Dr hab. Olgiard Annusewicz.
However, it is worth noting that Simon Holovnia has a alternatively hard task in the campaign. He cannot criticize the government which forms his organization besides strongly, due to the fact that he can not only test a coalition agreement, but besides lose credibility in the eyes of voters.
Stanowski picks up the votes from Nawrock?
The first period of the run besides brought rather unexpected returns of the action. He joined the race for the Presidential Palace Krzysztof Stanowski. Many supporters of the head of Channel Zero announced that “it is simply a gamechanger and a black horse who will turn the table and change the face of Polish politics.”
You gotta admit, Krzysztof Stanowski started hard. He made a message that was warmly received even by those who are not curious in politics on a regular basis. A day later, he collected signatures on Warsaw’s “Patelni”, attracting crowds of volunteers.
In the following days, however, the run slowed down somewhat. Krzysztof Stanowski declared that he was “not fit for president, but wants to show the phase of Polish policy”. At the moment, it is hard not to defy the impression that he wants to show first of all how to do a show around his own individual and attract as large an audience as possible to Channel Zero. Support for him oscillates in the vast majority of polls around 2-3 percent In the opinion study24 commissioned by Radio ZET is somewhat higher and is 4 percent
Dr. Olgierd Annusewicz pointed out that Krzysztof Stanowski has a large possible to attract people who are not curious in politics all day. “It is hard to measure his chances of gaining support at the expense of Sławomir Mentzen or Karol Nawrocki. Though he's presently polling 3-4 percent It is not excluded that it will make any confusion – the expert said.
Politologist explained that "when Paweł Kukiz competed 10 years ago, he convinced himself first of all the voters of Bronisław Komorowski, who in the second circular of the PO candidate did not vote". – The Head of the Zero Channel can take part of the vote to Karol Nawrock and this will besides translate into the results of the second round. The supporters of Krzysztof Stanowski are alleged non-ideological voters who are attracted by the fame and eccentricity of the head of Channel Zero. Their behaviour in the 2nd circular is unpredictable," he said.
Biejat and Zandberg, or brotherly fight on the Left
Internal divisions powerfully affected the candidates of the Left. The voices of left-wing voters are fought by Magdalena Biejat and Adrian Zandbergwho were members of 1 group until recently. Politicians have an highly hard task ahead of them – they must not only break through with their demands outside the left-wing bubble, but besides beyond the message addressed to little conservative voters, that "the vote for a policy another than Rafał Trzaskowski is favouring Karol Nawrock".
For these 2 politicians The fight is about “to be or not to be” the Left. Adrian Zandberg drives around Poland with the slogan that “he is simply a candidate of millions, not billionaires”, and he besides spares no hints at the government ministers of Donald Tusk, from whom he tries to distance clearly.
Magdalena Biejat He's definitely little confrontational. The Left candidate's run is conducted in specified a way as to convince as many voters as possible who are somewhat disappointed by the governments of the “Koalition” on October 15, but besides far from the PiS or Confederation.
– Looking at the results of the polls, Adrian Zandberg presently has immense problems. A fewer months ago, he was 1 of the leaders of the Left, had a lot to say, and now his support is oscillating around 1-2 percent She besides loses to Magdalena Biejat, which may hurt due to the fact that until late they were both in 1 party," commented Dr. hab. Olgiard Annusewicz
Election 2025. What do the polls say?
If we consider the polls that emerged during the first authoritative period of the presidential campaign, the situation seems to be stabilised. Rafał Trzaskowski has a considerable advantage over rivals in all studies.
W United Surveys survey for WP of 28 January, his support 37.8% Whereas the vote for Karol Nawrocki declared 25 %. polled. In the opinion24 poll of 27 January the difference between the 2 main candidates is above 13 percent
According to studies, a second circular of voting would be essential to decide the vote at the moment. Rafał Trzaskowski would besides win in the vast majority. Only the OGB poll predicted that Karol Nawrocki would win with the consequence 50.6 percent. the voices. In this poll, candidate KO has support at the level 49.4 percent. and it is worth adding that the statistical mistake in this kind of investigation is 2-3 percent. W SW investigation poll for Wprost the difference between candidates is 32.9 percent. au 17 percent. The head of the IPN is heavy on the heels of Sławomir Mentzen, who scored 13 percent Voices.
According to the "Politics" survey, in the opinion of respondents on key issues specified as security, Rafał Trzaskowski is much better prepared than Karol Nawrocki. "Distant competition in 14 segments, giving way to a candidate supported by the Law and Justice Office in only two".
In 3rd place – almost all studies – Sławomir Mentzen ranks ahead of Simon Holovnia. The support for the remaining candidates is at specified a level that they seem to have no chance of being president.
Read also:
Is this the end of Holown? "Today everyone consumes themselves quickly. Only Tusk and Kaczyński do not”Read also:
"Parliamentary Indiscretions": Nawrocki Staff hired experts. They're watching Trzaskovsky.
