The Trzaskowski poll leader, gains Mentzen. W PO ready for Plan B?

Sławomir Mentzen increasing in polls and becoming a major challenge for present Karol Nawrocki. Candidate Confederations in 2 studies he overtook the policy supported by the Law and Justice. If this trend is confirmed, the most crucial election staffs will gotta modify their strategies for this campaign.

Two months before the run election, Rafał Trzaskowski There's a comparative calm. As politicians say Citizens' Platform, watching the situation and the rivalry between Nawrock and Mentzen. They have this comfort that they are looking at opponents from the position of leader, due to the fact that no of the polls presume that Trzaskowski would miss the second round. For a long time, it seemed that the president of Warsaw would face Nawrock in it, but for present no 1 knows it 100 percent.

From our discussions with politicians of the Civic Platform, it is clear that for KO the more likely script is the entry of Karol Nawrocki into the second round. And it's the PiS candidate that's paying more attention. However, if in subsequent studies the polls confirm that the support of both rivals is coming, in PO they say directly: it will be a problem of Nawrocki's staff, not Trzaskowski's..

– We're looking at it from respective sides. First of all, we are doing our occupation and Rafał is at the centre of our attention. Secondly, we inactive believe that in the second circular he will face Karol Nawrocki. Only in 3rd place do we put Mentzen in the second round, but in this case we would be ready – 1 of the crucial PO politicians tells us.

– Of course in the staff works on all possible script – adds another interviewer associated with Trzaskowski.

Another politician is playing run arithmetic. In his opinion, both candidates – Nawrocki and Mentzen – simply "exchange" with the same support at this stage. In another words, the same electorate erstwhile convinces that it votes for Nawrocki and another time for Mentzen. – If together they do not exceed 45 percent of the support, then Trzaskowski is not threatened. But Rafal must be vigilant – he calculates our source.

When you look at the polls, it seems that only 3 candidates number in this race. The point is, all name on this list is of large importance and is closely monitored by the staff. Even if there's a presence Mark Jakubiak, who is simply a critic of Trzaskowski, so the staff of the president of Warsaw already knows that in the second circular there is no hope for – tiny but crucial – electorate of Jakubiak.

Therefore, in KO they look shyly at actions Magdalena Biejat and Simona Holowna. Both of them have not had a spectacular run so far, as can be seen in the support posts. The Marshal of the Sejm only now decided that it was time to velocity up, but the problem was whether he could mobilise and rebuild his electorate adequate to be a serious force in these elections. Biejat is in an even worse position, and the combined support of both does not always mean even 10%.

– Let me put it this way: I keep my fingers crossed for them to have the best consequence – 1 experienced KO politician smiles, who knows perfectly well that the fight for the presidency is 2 separate stages. In the first candidate he fights for the best result, and in the second he hopes for the votes of those who have already fallen out of the race, and the "gifted" votes of support can give a win. The condition is one: the base from which you can draw must be large.

The “base” from which you can draw must besides be taken care of. So there are no frontal attacks on the Confederacy by both the PO and the Law and Justice. The 2 largest staffs know very well that before the second circular it will be essential to bow towards the Confederate voters to win their votes. Of course, as long as Mentzen is yet in 3rd place.

He's got a goal line. We don't underestimate it.. On the another hand, whether it is as large as it is seen in smaller towns, it will be revealed – 1 of the politicians of PO tells us. – Yes, due to the fact that you can see in smaller towns that there is an interest in Mentzen. We just don't know how much it'll translate at the urns. Let us remember that there is always little vote for the Confederate at the urns,” adds our interlocutor.

This is 1 of the most crucial arguments that is repeated in talks with KO politicians. They believe that the electorate of the Confederate is little disciplined and is more willing to declare that he will go to elections than he actually votes. In PiS it is the other – the electorate associated with the Kaczyński organization yet mobilizes and votes for the PiS candidate. so – as we can hear – they inactive place more emphasis on Nawrocki in the second circular in KO today.

At the same time, they do not underestimate Mentzen and the "Plan B" is being prepared, but only as an emergency exit.

– It would be a different opponent, so You will gotta play on completely different emotions, another values – says the PO politician, who participated in respective campaigns. – Today, however, there is no fear that anything will change. For now, we are preparing for Nawrocki, we are working, we are not changing the expression of this work, but we are preparing a possible script for Mentzen's second place. - We hear you.

KO politicians admit that with the PiS they can play a run game, and in the case of Mentzen you will gotta bet on another elements. – With PiS we play a different note: you ruled badly, you cheated, you were dangerous. Mentzen and I won't do it. Here we will request a fight for emotion – our interviewer convinces.

Two months before the election, however, these are "political fiction" scenarios. The first baseman who has worked on the Vistula in 20 years is the 1 in which candidates PiS and PO compete in the second round. If Mentzen had managed to break this pattern, he would have entered the past of Polish politics.

However, before fighting Trzaskowski in the second round, he would have had to compete with Nawrocki more fiercely. – As further studies will confirm, where the PiS candidate will be behind the Confederate candidate, this policy of not touching each other, applied by both gentlemen, may change at any point. And we will look at it – they declare in KO.

Luke Spitter