Tokyo and Seoul: Balance between Beijing and Washington

polon.pl 1 year ago

The material was created in cooperation with POLON.pl and Podcast Travel without Passport.

Mateusz Grzeszczuk, Journey Without Passport: I thought Japan and South Korea were the iron allies of the USA?

Damian Wnukowski, PISM: alternatively they are, the alliance bonds have been going on since the 1950s. They are 1 of the oldest allies in the USA and the strongest in the Asia-Pacific region. These relations have developed rather intensively in fresh years, as was illustrated by the Camp David Summit last year, where common cooperation was strengthened. This does not mean that Japan and South Korea are not developing or stabilising relationships with another major players, including China.

A fresh free trade agreement has emerged. What was the impulse that led to the leaders meeting?

At the end of May, a tripartite summit of the heads of government of South Korea, Japan and China was held. From the Chinese side came the head of the Li Qiang government, from Japan Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, from South Korea (host of the meeting) president Yoon Suk-yeol. Sometimes it is pointed out that Xi Jinping did not attend the meeting, which may be a political signal.

It was the ninth tripartite meeting, they have been organized with breaks since 2008. Chinese prime ministers usually attended the erstwhile summits. The last gathering was organized in Seoul and aimed at stabilising relations and maintaining channels of communication between countries whose relations stay rather complex and multi-threaded. This alliance between Japan and South Korea and the US plays an crucial role.

Of course, economical issues are 1 of the most crucial elements of these tripartite relations. China is the largest trading partner of both states and both Tokyo and Seoul do not care about strong economical friction with Beijing. The Chinese marketplace and the engagement of companies in the global supply chain is very strong, so economical issues were present at the meeting.

One of the effects of the summit was the announcement of speeding up the negotiations for a tripartite trade agreement between Japan, South Korea and China to facilitate economical contacts and get commercial benefits for all stakeholders.

It is worth noting that all countries are already part of the larger economical structure, the largest free trade area in the world, the Comprehensive Regional economical Partnership (RCEP). They are created by a full of 15 countries, and the Japanese, Chinese and South Korean economies are already someway embedded in this strategy of supply chains in the Asia-Pacific region. The RCEP is rather a shallow agreement, focusing mainly on tariff reductions, tariffs and any non-tariff barriers.

In this tripartite agreement (if any) more emphasis would be placed on method or regulatory matters, making the work of these 3 countries even easier.

What do Japan and South Korea gotta offer China that Beijing would like to revive free trade?

All 3 countries are large economies, powerfully interconnected. China can offer a immense marketplace for all kinds of products – Tokyo and Seoul are already heavy embedded in the production network, whether in the electronic or automotive sphere. It is hard to find an area where these countries would not be connected.

However, China besides offers a very well-developed industrial complex, a cluster complex that has a proven group of suppliers, which facilitates the operation of many nipponese and South Korean corporations, besides reducing their costs. It besides affects production efficiency and competitiveness in global markets.

Japan and South Korea can offer China various technologies. There is, however, a problem due to the fact that these relations between Seoul and Tokyo and Washington, which are increasingly competing with China in many areas (including technology, which seems to be crucial for American-Chinese relations in the long term), are being pushed by the US to limit this cooperation.

A good example was the informal urge of Japan to halt exports to China of many types of chip-making machines, which is simply a “new oil” of the economy – all electronic devices are based on this technology. Japan, therefore, as 1 of the leading chip device suppliers, introduced a transportation licence to China.

It is clear that in the field of technology Beijing would like to get products and know-how from Japan and South Korea. However, this cooperation is already limited, and there will be problems in this area precisely due to US policy, including in the coming years.

As far as I know, China was resisting Seoul's request to set a gathering date for safety issues. Quoting any commentators, the summit was expected to be a kind of decoy that Beijing was expected to wedge between Tokyo and Seoul and Washington.

That's what it looks like. In the changing global environment and in the Asia-Pacific region, China is experiencing an increasingly tighter belt around them, which stems from US policy. Washington creates a network of agreements, partnerships and alliances not only bilateral (with Japan, South Korea, the Philippines or Thailand), but besides creates a wider scope of activities where the US is not the main component of cooperation. He urges the region to cooperate. The threat seen by any countries, due to China's increasingly assertive policy (whether in the Taiwan Strait or in the South China Sea), is conducive to closer ties.

In addition to the example of Camp David last year between the US, Japan and South Korea, there was besides a summit in Washington DC between the US, Japan and the Philippines. This was to show another component in the creation of a network of partnerships. Similarly, AUKUS, or the agreement of the United States, large Britain and Australia, is to form this element.

China, seeing this effort to build a network of partnerships by the US, is trying to exploit its capabilities (mainly economical ones) to drive a wedge between the United States and their allies, showing what they may lose in closer cooperation with America (supply chains, production networks).

From China's perspective, the last summit could service this very intent – to draw Tokyo and Seoul distant from Washington. It is likely that no clear phrase will be made by these 2 countries, as they are aware of the threat and challenges posed by China through their actions and contacts with North Korea. Pyongyang is becoming more and more dangerous to his neighbors. In addition, long-term interests of Japan and Korea are closer to the US. On the another hand, it is not expected that both countries will antagonise and argue China explicitly, precisely through economical ties.

We are observing any safety balance between the United States and reasonably strong commercial interests, binding both countries to China.

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