In a fresh study, CBOS is led by Rafał Trzaskowski, a candidate of the Civic Coalition, with a score of 32.7 percent. He is the 1 who enjoys the top support of voters at this phase of the campaign. The second place is Karol Nawrocki, supported by the Law and Justice – it was pointed out by 27.5% of respondents.
CBOS showed election forecast before 1st circular of elections
The 3rd place came to Sławomir Mentzen of the Confederation, who can number on 13.7 percent of the vote. another candidates have importantly lower ratings: Szymon Hołownia (Poland 2050) gained 6.2 percent, Adrian Zandberg (Party Together) – 5.7 percent, and Magdalena Biejat (New Left) – 4.9 percent.
Grzegorz Braun has a 4.4 percent score. More than 1% of the support was received by Joanna Senyszyn (1.6%) and Marek Jakubiak (1.5%). The another candidates did not cross that threshold.
According to CBOS, "the electoral forecast presented was prepared on the basis of 2 independent studies conducted by CBOS in the first half of May 2025".
"The full size of the example was 2081 respondents, which allows to get a advanced level of precision of estimates.Unlike conventional polls presenting only declarations of respondents, this forecast besides takes into account the anticipated choices of people who declared to participate in the upcoming presidential election, but refused to indicate the preferred candidate or had not yet taken the final election decision," explained the government workshop in the published paper.
As added, this group includes 261 respondents, a crucial percent of all respondents to the vote.
Importantly, the projected voter turnout is 66.9 percent. And the election tour is on Sunday – May 18.
