The United States has stopped arms supplies for the Ukrainian army. In the East, the key to maintaining the effectiveness of rocket anti-aircraft defence to Patriot systems will not be found. Russians are already taking advantage of the situation – on the night of 3 by 4 July they attacked Ukrainian cities utilizing over 500 drones and rockets. But paradoxically, they can besides endure from the American embargo. Why did the Donald Trump administration decide to take specified extremist action? What are the consequences?
In addition to the PAC-3 intercepting missiles launched by Patriot US launchers, they stopped sending Ukraine ammunition to HIMARS and M270 MLRS systems, including highly precise GMLRS missiles. The list of proprietary weapons types included 155-millimeter artillery missiles, portable Stinger air defence kits, AIM-7 Sparrow air-to-air missiles and Hellfire missiles. The ban besides includes AIM-9M Sidewinder missiles, which in the first configuration are utilized by Ukrainian F-16, and in the modified version service as OPL ammunition.
What does Kiev say?
As the Americans explain, halting supplies for Kiev aims to defend dramatically shrinking stocks. "This decision was taken after a review of military support and assistance to another countries," explained deputy press secretary Anna Kelly. "First we gotta take care of the needs of the United States," emphasised Matthew Whitaker, a permanent U.S. typical to NATO. The deputy head of the Pentagon Elbridge Colby, who approved the suspension of aid, admitted that the review of ammunition supplies provoked concerns from administration officials. According to Colby, the full number of artillery, anti-aircraft missiles and precision ammunition continues to decline and may shortly prove insufficient in the face of the challenges facing the United States. This is primarily about China, but besides about the hazard of resuming armed action in the mediate East.
There is no clarity as to how long the Americans have halted deliveries – any Trump administration officials propose that the embargo is to be in force for respective months until the stock is replenished. What does Kiev say? The Ministry of abroad Affairs there warned that “any hold or hesitation in supporting defence capacity Ukraine will only encourage Russia to proceed war and panic alternatively of seeking peace." In the backstage, there are intensive talks with Americans, of which small is known so far. It is known, however, that Moscow was pleased to receive information about the cut-off of supplies. "The little weapons it will scope Ukraine, the closer to the end of the peculiar military operation," commented Kremlin spokesperson Dmitri Pieskov. This is, of course, a hypocritical argument, due to the fact that Russia has no peaceful intentions, and it intends only to usage the weakening of Ukraine to strike more painfully and force the Kievs to end the war on their own highly unfavourable terms to the Ukrainians. The decision of the Americans will surely affect Ukrainian civilians the most painfully, due to the fact that – with the leaky OPL umbrella falling – it will be easier to hit them.
A convenient excuse
And this is the aspect that causes the most controversy. The United States is accused that "show Ukraine", especially civilians. They want to or don't want to go to Russia. The fact is that the decision to suspend the aid was made at a time erstwhile the Russians launch evidence numbers of drones and rockets and erstwhile the Russian army is pushing in the north in the Sum region and is constantly trying to push at Donbas. In both fresh cases, they endure terrible losses, but at the same time absorb and consume limited Ukrainian resources. From this perspective, the decision to halt aid appears like a knife to the back.
On the another hand, we must not forget that the full-scale war in Ukraine has already lasted 3 and a half years. During this time, Washington donated equipment and ammunition worth tens of billions of dollars to Kiev., while supplying Israel in his war against Hamas, Hezbollah, and lately Iran. At these burdens, the U.S. got active in Hits on Huti in Yemen. And the supplies aren't rubber. According to the manufacture portal War Zone: "Protectively ignoring stock requirements, very limited production capacity, which is hard to increase quickly, and the unique nature of many components of advanced weapons mean that it will take time to complete American ammunition depots." Worse still, there is no plan B, due to the fact that older systems, held in deep reserve so far, have already been passed on.
The solution is to grow the production base, what the Americans do, but... Firstly, this is not happening fast enough, secondly, there is inactive a question of political will to proceed helping Ukraine. Most importantly, the current president of the United States is simply a skeptic here. In fact, it is hard to defy the impression that, nevertheless true, American wrestling problems are a convenient pretext for Trump. “I will not, due to the fact that I do not”, he says, hoping that the hard situation will force the Ukrainians to make peace at all costs. And as we know, the 47th president of the United States wants to have a peaceful “deal”, the costs incurred by others are irrelevant.
♪ Up against the wall ♪
However, Ukrainians have so far shown large determination – is it adequate to face another challenge? The Russians will prosecute a script in which the Ukrainian OPL will no longer be able to destruct most drones and missiles. However, at any point it will simply fire, revealing Ukraine's “soft underbelly”: cities, but besides strategically crucial facilities, related to sustaining war effort, including its own production facilities. It's the first hazard associated with the deficiency of American weapons. The second is due to the deficiency of precise artillery-missile ammunition. The GMLRS let Ukraine to execute quick, precise strokes at a distance of 70 km. Ukrainians usage HIMARS and M270 MLRS launchers to surgically destruct air defence stations, artillery, concentration sites, bridges or command nodes. This importantly complicates the current operation of the Russian army, which will become more effective without specified “takers”.
But it is worth noting that the American embargo will besides affect the Russians, though different than Dmitri Pieskov meant. Ukrainians must now attack with even greater strength the places where Russian means of aerial assault are being produced – in order to destruct at least part of the upcoming effects of weakening their own anti-aircraft defense. It is besides very likely that in consequence to severe Russian blows, they will origin attacks in Russia; they besides have rockets and drones, it is so not possible to exclude further typical diversion operations.
They don't necessarily give up...
