- Both in the Onetu electoral forecast and in the latest polls, support for the PiS candidate is decreasing, while the number of people willing to vote for Sławomir Mentzen from the Confederate increases
- — Looking at the increase in support for Mentzen, the PiS pays for quite a few things here. Mainly for the deficiency of settlements in the organization after losing elections and for the separation between the interests of voters and the views of its own leadership in politics towards Ukraine, says Onet Prof. Chwedoruk
- He stresses that the PO candidate Rafał Trzaskowski should do everything to face Nawrocki in the second round. “He is simply a dream opponent for Trzaskowski,” says a political scientist
Dres and the Polish case — this is the subject of the late dealt with PiS candidate Karol Nawrocki, for the unspeakable callable citizen candidate. He commended the U.S. Secretary of defence for jogging in cotton sweatpants — not thermal clothing, due to the fact that it “represents itself”. "This is simply a way for all of us to make Poland talk with its voice" — this is simply a quote from the PiS candidate. His support in the polls melts, which shows among others the latest electoral forecast for Onetu.
“Nawrocki constructs a communicative that he is ‘his own man’, which, however, is hard to foretell success,” says Prof. UW Rafał Chwedoruk, a political scientist.
“Since the launch of Magdalena Ogórek in the presidential election as a candidate for the SLD, Nawrocki’s exhibition is possibly the biggest secret of Polish politics,” says the expert. — In a strategical dimension, it is hard to explain why a serious, large party, specified as PiS, having experience in winning, has set up a individual with specified a controversial résumé and low recognition,” says prof. Chwedoruk.
“No 1 in the Law and Justice will die for Nawrocki”
In the “dressing” issue, the expert points out that in making specified a statement, the PiS candidate reveals that “there is nothing to lose”. “After the last election, the Law and Justice came into a multi-level crisis, which besides covered the issue of the right-wing Confederacy. The longer the confusion and reconstruction of the organization after the losing elections took place there, the easier it was for the Confederates to appear in counties where the organization of Jarosław Kaczyński was strong. And voters, faced with the problems of the Law and Justices, received an offer from young Confederate politicians, says prof. Chwedoruk.
— Therefore, in the current presidential run The PiS was looking for individual who, in the context of the 2nd round, would be acceptable to specified voters. possibly so. This Nawrocki candidate's tracksuit is simply a search for a specific, aesthetic plane, showing voters 20 and 30 years old who are close to the Confederacy that Nawrocki is “his man” “the expert explains.
Adam Warżawa / PAPKarol Nawrocki
— That it may be “from them”, or from the Law and Justice, but it is not so different from us. possibly that's why, in order to strengthen specified a message, Nawrocki puts it from the beginning on a kind of "the aesthetics of everyday life". Nawrocki's staff could not hope that the morning jogging of their candidate in cotton tracksuit would shake a large-town mediate class electorate, says prof. Chwedoruk.
— However, all these efforts of Nawrocki and his staff will not change the fact that he is not the 1 the PiS activists will want to die for, especially with problems specified as melting financial resources due to the failure of their party,” the political scientist emphasizes.
And Mantzen is growing... "If it regularly exceeds 17%, alarm bells will ringing in the PiS"
Both in the election forecast prepared for Onetu and in the fresh polls, Confederate candidate Sławomir Mentzen noted increasing support. The forecast accounts for 13.7 percent, which means that the support it can anticipate is almost twice as advanced as that which the Confederation achieved during the 2023 parliamentary elections. It should besides be noted that it is inactive in the growth trend. In the poll Opinion24 for RMF FM on Mentzen wants to vote 16.8 percent of respondents.
“This can already be seen as a standard wave of support for the Confederate candidate, but the degree of this support is crucial,” says prof. Chwedoruk. “So far there have been fluctuations between 5 and 15 percent, but exceeding these 15 percent would have been an alarm bell for PiS. Looking at the increase in support for Mentzen, the PiS pays for quite a few things here.. In particular, for the deficiency of settlements in the organization after the losing elections and for the separation between the interests of voters and the views of his own leadership in politics towards Ukraine, states a political scientist.
Tomasz Waszczuk / PAPSławomir Mentzen during a gathering with voters in Lidzbark Warmiński
“We have besides the issue of migration and the fact that Ukraine does not want to give way to Poland on the issue of historical policy, putting statues of Shuchewycz and others. The problems besides concern economical competition. All of this gives emergence to powerful public concerns, and the Law and Justice Department has pursued policies that take them into account in a tiny way. The Confederacy, on the another hand, was different in its message, on which Mentzen scored points, he points out.
— There are inactive natural concerns about this in young people entering the labour market, before those coming from Ukraine take distant their work. Plus the general fear of implicating Poland in the war. All this works for Mentzen,” explains Prof. UW Chwedoruk. “And what was crucial so far was neither the Polish authorities nor the Law and Justice Department's final and unequivocal dementation of the concept of the Polish Army's engagement in the war in Ukraine,” the expert emphasizes.
"Trzaskowski must do everything he can to have his rival Nawrocki in the second round. He is for the PO candidate the dream opponent”
When assessing fresh support studies, prof. Chwedoruk emphasizes that in order for Rafał Trzaskowski to have a chance to win in the second round, he must guarantee that his rival remains, as the polls indicate, Karol Nawrocki. “ In the face of any another candidate, Trzaskovsky’s advantage would not be that big,” he says.
— If Mentzen entered the second round, the PO candidate would gotta profile the full campaign, intensify the negative campaign, which is not good for the 1 who goes for the victory. And Trzaskovsky's staff would gotta do anything to avoid turning elections into a plebiscite on political elites, as the Confederate plays, as the political scientist convinces. “In addition, Mentzen’s possible entry into the 2nd circular would have an impact on the result of the upcoming parliamentary elections, triggering the domino effect. akin to what we observed in 2015, the expert points out.
— Therefore, all day of Nawrocki's participation in the run for the PO candidate is at the weight of gold, due to the fact that with it he can win and avoid revolution on the Polish political scene, says Prof. Chwedoruk.
Titus Żmijewski / PAPRafał Trzaskowski
Can Trzaskowski be certain of his victory? “On the another hand, he may feel more assured that present Poland is completely different from erstwhile Andrzej Duda defeated Bronisław Komorowski, the aspirations of many social groups have changed. It is besides evident that the PiS simply has less voters. Demography works here, including the depopulation effect of regions in which Kaczyński organization had advanced support. The strength of Trzaskowski is besides that the negative stereotypes concerning PiS are inactive strong. And PiS setting up Nawrocki wanted to play its interior organization game, indicating a candidate who had no prospects of making changes in the management of the PiS. Only the immense disadvantage here is that specified a candidate — being in the PiS as a abroad body — has no chance of mobilising many voters or organization pits. The effects of this, rather poor, are seen in fresh surveys,” concludes prof. Chwedoruk.
