A proven ally? engagement of Denmark in assistance to Ukraine

Since the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, Denmark has allocated EUR 8.5 billion to military aid to Kiev and EUR 854 million to support civilian needs. According to the Kilonian Institute of planet Economy data, this sum, together with the measures to be distributed by 2028, ranks the country in sixth place in terms of aid value (for the United States, Germany, large Britain, Canada and Japan) and second (for Estonia) in relation to GDP (2.34%). The scale of Denmark's support is all the more crucial as its GDP puts it in 16th place in Europe and 34th in the world.

An example of an innovative approach to military support is the alleged Danish military aid model for financing arms production in Ukraine, followed by Sweden, Lithuania and the European Union. The consequence of the Copenhagen procedure is manifested in a comprehensive commitment to the implementation of projects to rebuild the Mikołaj region, and especially its capital. The launch of the Danish military support model and the strong participation in the reconstruction of Nicholasov are treated by Copenhagen as an investment in its own safety – by weakening Russia and thus countering its attempts to grow its influence in the Baltic Sea region.

‘Help without scruples’

The Danish support of Ukraine fits into Copenhagen's consistent attitude towards Moscow's aggressive actions following the annexation of Crimea. In 2015, Danish soldiers joined Canadian (UNIFIER) and British (Orbital) training missions in Ukraine, and in January 2022, during a visit to the alleged demarcation line in Donbasa, the Danish abroad Minister announced the transfer of EUR 22 million of financial assistance in consequence to the concentration of Russian troops on the border with Ukraine. A period later, Chief of the Defence Ministry Morten Bødskov stated that "Denmark has no scruples to supply military aid to Ukraine". After the invasion of Copenhagen began, she decided to send 2,700 anti-tank weapons and 300 Stinger missiles there. According to the Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen This was the first case in the modern past of Denmark to hand over military equipment fighting side of the conflict. In the spring of 2022, Copenhagen donated to Kiev coastal rocket batteries equipped with Harpoon antiship missiles to play a key function in defending Ukrainian Black Sea coasts, including Odessa, and to let for the reflection of the Snake Island.

In cooperation with Germany, Denmark supplied over 100 Leopard 1A5 tanks, and together with the Netherlands committed to acquisition and transport 14 leopards 2A4 and 15 T-72. In August 2024, besides with the Netherlands, she transferred the first F-16 fighters to Kiev, and in February of the same year, from its own resources – 19 French cannonhaubic CAESAR, which de facto resulted in the disposing of all self-propelled artillery systems by the Danish armed forces (see table). The military support provided by the Ukrainian country in 2023 (around EUR 1.7 billion) was equivalent to more than 1 4th of the then yearly military budget of the Danish State (about EUR 6.3 billion)^[1].

In addition, Denmark was the first non-G7 country to sign a safety cooperation agreement with Ukraine (a akin agreement was concluded by 28 countries). Copenhagen is active in the work of 7 of the 9 coalitions within the Contact Group on Defence of Ukraine (the alleged Ramstein Group) and leads 1 of them – to coordinate the support of Ukrainian air forces. Over 100 Danish instructors since 2022 have participated in training Ukrainian soldiers in the British Interflex operation (especially aircraft, artillery, bombardment and tank crews). Moreover, the Danish Prime Minister, who visited Ukraine six times since the start of the war, as the first European politician, announced that the citizens of her country could join Ukrainian armed forces without any legal obstacles to combating the aggressor.

Support beyond divisions

The decisive action of the Danish government allows for a social and political consensus on the request to support Kiev. Russian aggression is seen as a threat not only to the global legal order but besides straight to the interests of the Kingdom of Denmark^[2]. Copenhagen recognises that supporting the fighting Ukraine is the best safety policy, as it weakens Russia and stops its efforts to rebuild its own sphere of influence, especially in the Baltic Sea region. Denmark fears that after the end of the war Russia will search to rebuild its military possible and take armed action against the states located within this water.

This conviction resulted in a majority of political groups entering into a multi-party defence agreement in April 2024, which in the same year allowed to scope a level of 2% of GDP of defence expenditure (as previously planned only in 2030) and to declare in February 2025 that they would increase to 3.2% in the following 2 years. This increase in defence spending besides stemmed from the force of Donald Trump – first as a presidential candidate and then as the president of the United States – to increase them by European states and from American claims against Greenland, an autonomous subsidiary of Denmark.

The sources of the attitude of Danish society and politicians towards Ukraine and the Russian invasion are seen in the powerfully rooted in Denmark's abroad and safety policy by the imperative of global activism that developed after the Cold War. Copenhagen has powerfully supported the east enlargement of NATO and the EU (in peculiar the aspirations of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia) and, as a tiny state, global law-based governance. As a consequence of geopolitical changes, Denmark ceased to see itself as a front state and until 2022 it felt that it was not threatened by direct armed aggression. Hence the Danish readiness to engage outside the country militarily and to participate in various types of “coalitions of the willing”.

Chart. Support for the Danish people to assist Ukraine

Source: Eurobarometer.

Danish military aid model: successes...

The exhausting stocks of own military equipment and the limited production possible of the European arms manufacture forced the Danish authorities to search creative solutions to support Ukraine's war effort. In June 2024, Kiev and Copenhagen signed an agreement to finance the production of 18 wheeled cannonhoubic self-propelled 2S22 Bohdan. This was the first pilot agreement to impose a refund by the NATO state of Kiev's procurement of Ukrainian defence industry^[3]. In a comparatively short period, the haubice was delivered to the front, which decided to proceed cooperation and grow production with partners. Thanks to the external financing mechanics used, Bohdan's cannon-haubic production capacity would increase from respective to 20 copies a period in 2025.

The proposed cooperation model proved to be a success besides due to the fact that it importantly reduced the cost of producing weapons compared to its acquisition in Europe (the value of 1 Bohdan cannonhaubic is about $2.5 million, and the comparable French equivalent of CAESAR is $4.2 million). Thanks to the location of parts of production in Ukraine, it has besides become possible to deliver spare parts more quickly, and thus – more efficient service of weapon systems, extending their usefulness. In September 2024, representatives of the departments of strategical sectors of the economy of Ukraine and the Ministry of Defence of Denmark signed an agreement to extend cooperation to include another weapons and military equipment: long-range drones, anti-tank systems and anti-shipping rocket systems. Sweden and Iceland have besides joined the initiative.

A witness to the success of the Danish programme for the financing of the production of cannonohabic Bohdan became an investment by the EU in the Ukrainian manufacture of further measures: EUR 390 million in September (part of which was intended to finance the production of another batch of cannonohabic) and then in May this year EUR 830 million obtained from interest on frozen Russian assets under the ERA (Extraordinary gross Acceleration) initiative. Denmark was the operator liable for execution of orders in cooperation with Kiev. The funds are to be utilized primarily for the production of drones and ammunition.

According to statements by president Volodymyr Zelenski thanks to the “Danish model” Ukraine managed to increase production to more than 40% of the supply of all military weapons and equipment utilized on the front (at the start of the war it was little than 10%)^[4]. According to then Minister of strategical manufacture Herman Smetanin, home arms production increased in 2024 3 times compared to the erstwhile year (from $3 to 9 billion), and the defence manufacture gained the possible to deliver orders worth $20 billion, with the possible of reaching $35 billion in 2025^[5]. In Ukraine there are more than 800 arms companies active in the initiative and employing about 300,000 workers, which corresponds to almost half the staff of the full European defence industry^[6].

...and restrictions

Obstacle to the full usage of the arms manufacture Ukraine is unwilling of partners to straight fund it, but for their own businesses. Berlin prefers to make joint German-Ukrainian companies, resulting in the construction of ammunition factories in Ukraine and tank production and repair facilities and artillery and anti-air defence systems^[7]. A akin model is besides preferred by France^[8]. For this reason, although the interest in the ‘Danish model’ is declared by many entities, the sum of abroad orders in Ukrainian arms companies remains small. According to the Kilonian Institute of planet Economy, from the beginning of the war to December 2024, they reached a level of EUR 1 billion, which, given the full value of military equipment orders for Ukraine last year by its allies (approximately EUR 54 billion), accounts for only 2% of all abroad arms purchases for its army.^[9].

In order to increase investment in the Ukrainian industry, the Danish announced in October 2024 the creation of the Defence manufacture Hub, which aims to advance the cooperation of their companies with Ukrainian partners and the joint implementation of military contracts. An additional incentive is to be provided by a programme launched in March this year providing guarantees of 1 billion Danish kronor (more than EUR 130 million) for Danish companies that decide to invest in the Ukrainian defence industry. Under this initiative, the Danish Export and Investment Fund (EIFO) offers cover of up to 70% of capital expenditure for up to 7 years.

Reconstruction — ‘Copenhagen’ on the Black Sea

Although military support represents around 80% of the Danish financial and material assistance provided to Ukraine, Copenhagen besides allocates funds to civilian purposes. Since 2022, she has already donated EUR 867 million for them, and the flagship task in this area is to support the reconstruction of Nicholasov. The choice of this city was decided by president Zelenski's direct appeal, which coincided with the attack of the Russian rocket on the building of the local regional administration, resulting in 37 deaths.^[10]. Prime Minister Frederiksen announced an aid strategy for the city in April 2022 during a visit to Ukraine, in the same period work on its concept began the Danish-Ukrainian working group and in June 2022 it was published. A memorandum on the partnership between Denmark and Nicholasov was subsequently signed in March 2023 and a Steering Committee was established, composed of the applicable ministries and institutions of Denmark and Ukraine and representatives of local authorities. In October 2023 the Embassy of the Kingdom of Denmark opened its office in Mikołajów.

In applicable terms, in the first months after the effective defence of Nicholasov against Russian troops, the Danish aid focused almost exclusively on ad hoc repairs of the water and energy network. The aim was to halt the exodus of the inhabitants of the city, primarily young people (by the end of 2022 more than 220,000 people, almost half of the pre-war population, left it), due to hard surviving conditions.

By November 2022, due to Chersonia's ongoing occupation, from where he ran to the Nicholas water supply powered from Dniepr, the city was completely deprived of access to drinking water. The situation worsened the deliberate demolition by Russian troops of this infrastructure, and then dams in fresh Kachowce. This forced the city authorities to usage polluted seawater, leading to critical harm to the water supply network and the request to replace about 1,200 km of urban pipelines. With the support of Denmark and another partners, water treatment facilities have been delivered, and since January 2025 work has been underway on the construction of a fresh 67-kilometre water supply from fresh Odessa to Nicholasov. As part of this investment (approx. EUR 132 million) Denmark undertook to replace about 45 km of the most damaged parts of the urban water supply network and its complete reconstruction in 1 of the most populated and industrialized areas of the city. The task is to be completed at the end of 2025.

Another problem is the electricity deficit due to harm to the CHP plant and the power grid. Denmark declared to co-finance a fresh wind power plant, 1 of the largest planned reconstruction projects in Ukraine (estimated cost is around €400 million)^[11]. The investment is to be put into service by the end of 2026. Parallel to this work, the Danish commissioned the Kiev School of Economics to prepare a study on the scale of harm based on satellite images and drones. The paper published in December 2022 estimated the losses caused by the war to be EUR 852 million.^[12]. This data was utilized for the improvement by Danish and Italian plan offices of the Mikołajów recovery strategy (ordered by the Danish Ministry of abroad Affairs) and its assumptions were taken into account in the authoritative Mikołajów's recovery and improvement plan 2024–2027^[13]. This year, conceptual work began on the implementation of 2 projects included in it: the construction of an industrial park and the revitalization and reconstruction of shipbuilding facilities.

According to the Danish Ministry of abroad Affairs, about EUR 190 million (as of 25 February) was allocated to aid to Mikołajów Copenhagen, which is, according to the assumptions of the Danish Fund for Ukraine launched in March 2023, 60% of all funds allocated to its reconstruction. Denmark besides seeks to encourage private actors to participate in the reconstruction of both the city and the remainder of the country. This nonsubjective is to be served by a peculiar instrument for Ukraine launched in March 2023, which offers loans and debt guarantees up to 1 billion Danish krona (more than EUR 130 million). The facility allows for the financing and provision of guarantees up to 100% of the acquisition costs of goods from Danish exports by Ukrainian entrepreneurs and grants to public institutions up to 40% of the acquisition costs of goods for critical infrastructure projects. EIFO besides offers loans and guarantees to Danish companies operating in Ukraine and creating fresh jobs there.

In view of the cases of deliberate fire on investment sites, data on the location and scale of abroad reconstruction projects financed shall not be made public. The decision was taken after the Russian rocket attack in August 2023 for the facilities of the Nikolay agroholding Nibulon, 1 of the largest companies in Ukraine, whose reconstruction was funded under the EIFO. The Danish authorities are presently reporting on more than 20 projects completed so far in Mikołajów, which are the next phase in the implementation of the concept of city improvement to encourage settlements. In this context, in addition to projects to make manufacture and make fresh jobs, attention is paid to investments of a social nature, specified as the reconstruction of educational institutions, including the historical Arkas Secondary School.

As Alexander Sienkevych stressed, the concept of co-operation with the Danes assumes the urban imagination of Mikołajów according to the example of Copenhagen^[14]What has its applicable and measurable implications. They do not hide that their participation in reconstruction is linked to their prospects with the expected economical benefits resulting from the deepening of shipbuilding cooperation between Denmark and Ukraine after the end of the war. Both investments in the refurbishment of the water supply network in the alleged ship district, where there are many shipbuilding companies and 1 of the most modern ports in the country "Olwia" and plans to rebuild professional personnel through the reconstruction of the National University of Shipbuilding.^[15]. Their approach reflects the agreement between the 2 States of the Memorandum of knowing on long-term cooperation and reconstruction of Ukraine concluded in April 2024, in which an crucial part was devoted to joint projects for the improvement of shipbuilding^[16].

Danish primate

Compared to another Western countries providing aid Ukraine Danish support is much smaller than that shown by more wealthy partners (such as the USA, Britain or Germany) and is not decisive for strengthening Ukraine's war effort. At the same time, they feature a consistent and comprehensive approach that makes Denmark stand out among the Kiev supporting states. This is demonstrated by the launch of the alleged Danish military aid model and the participation of Copenhagen in the reconstruction of Mikołajów. Thanks to this, her commitment is visible and appreciated by Ukrainian decision-makers and society (70% of respondents replied that she has a affirmative attitude towards Denmark)^[17].

The Danish attitude is portrayed by president Zelenski as a function model. Appreciating this help, he wrote on X that if all Ukrainian allies were as determined as Copenhagen, they would have been able to halt the Russian invader long ago.^[18].

Table. Military equipment transferred to Ukraine by Denmark

Source: OSH weapons transportation monitor, osw.waw.pl.