The latest public opinion poll, conducted by IBRiS for Onetu, brings serious shuffling on the Polish political scene. Although the Civic Coalition is somewhat ahead of the Law and Justice, the biggest surprise is the leap in support of the Confederacy.
Sławomir Mentzen's organization grows up to be a possible quarterback for the future arrangement of forces in the Sejm. In specified a scenario, the function of the future president – whether Rafał Trzaskowski or Karol Nawrocki – can importantly weaken.
KO and PiS go head-to-head, but the 3rd power is the Confederate
According to a survey conducted on 26-27 May 2025 on a typical example of 1070 adult Poles, the Civic Coalition is presently in favour of 33.4 percent. This is an increase of 1.6 percent points compared to the mid-May survey. Law and Justice achieved a score of 32.2 percent, gaining 1 percent point.
A real surprise, however, is the consequence of the Confederation – 17.1%. This is by 5.9 percent points more than 2 weeks earlier. He is definitely ahead of the another groups and gaining the position of possible tongue in importance in the future Sejm.
Weak 3rd Road, Left on the border
The 3rd Road, or coalition of Poland 2050 and PSL, may not exceed the electoral threshold for the coalition committee, which is 8 percent. Currently, only 6% of respondents support it – 2 percent points little than before. Even weaker quotations are left – with a consequence of 5 percent it balances at the border of entry to the Sejm as a party. This is simply a drop of 2.5 percent points.
The full organization received only 2.5 percent (-1.1%), and another groups gathered 0.9 percent of the votes. 2.7 percent of respondents inactive do not know who they will vote for.
Sejm simulation: without the Confederacy there is no majority
Onet Data's analysis team, based on the above data, prepared a simulation of the timetable of seats in the Sejm. It assumes that the 3rd Road would run as a party, not a coalition committee.
The results are as follows:
PiS: 188 mandates
KO: 170 mandates
Confederation: 86 mandates
Third Road: 10 mandates
Left: 6 mandates
This means that the current ruling coalition – KO, 3rd Road and Left – could number for a full of 186 seats, i.e. by 45 little than essential for a unchangeable majority (231 Members). Donald Tusk's government would be in serious trouble.
New governments only involving the Confederation
In the current arrangement, no group could self-create a government. The only real anticipation would be an alliance with the Confederacy. The Confederacy Alliance of the Law and Justice would give 274 tickets, and the KO – 256.
This means that Sławomir Mentzen's organization would become the main quarterback of the future ruling coalition – without it, no agreement would have a chance of parliamentary stability.
The president without strength? Veto in question
This situation may seriously restrict the President's future powers. If, for example, Rafał Trzaskowski or Karol Nawrocki were victorious in the 2027 election, their right to veto the laws may be illusory.
Rejection of the presidential veto requires a qualified majority of 3/5 votes (276 MPs with full presence). In the simulated Sejm, the alliance of PiS and Confederacy would 274 mandates, then. They'd only miss 2 votes.To push any bill against the President's opposition.
An alternate KO–Confederation–Third Road–Lew coalition would collect 272 mandates – besides somewhat below the threshold. The future president can so find himself in a situation where his influence on government is severely limited.
