The polls do not give Ziobra a chance to enter the Sejm independently. Source: YouTubeThe increasing tension between Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and Minister of Justice and lawyer General Zbigniew Ziobra has spawned speculation about the possible breakdown of the coalition. The problem of the cold relations between Poland and the European Commission, caused by the reforms of the judiciary by Ziobra, may be impossible to solve in the current agreement. Is the alliance in danger of falling apart? Is the Prime Minister's position at risk? possibly Ziobrze is about a better organization inside the United Right before the election?
Since the push from the United Right of the Jarosław Gowin Agreement, after his opposition to the plans to organize the alleged 2020 envelope election, it has been speculated in the media that possibly another partner, whom the Law and Justice will want to get free of, will be Solidarna Polska Zbigniew Ziobry. These were not entirely unfounded conjectures. Ziobro tried to take over the PiS at the hands of Jarosław Kaczyński. The erstwhile Prime Minister is not in the habit of forgetting a knife stuck in the back. For this act of betrayal, Ziobro was thrown out along with respective comrades from the organization and waiting for the more successful winds he established on the margin of the right side of the political scene his own group.
Ziobro, along with his supporters, had a better streak erstwhile in 2014, together with the organization of the Jarosław Gowin Agreement, erstwhile Minister of Justice and leader of the alleged right wing of the PO, and PiS-em concluded an agreement on the joint clash of 3 groups from the list of the last in the following elections. This brought considerable benefits to both leaders, as their parties themselves had besides small support to enter the Sejm. The Law and Justice didn't gotta fight competition on the right side of the spectrum, so he could build both campaigns in 2015 on criticism of the PO-PSL governments.
The cooperation of the 3 parties following the winning elections was arranged rather smoothly to announce the results of the subsequent 2019 parliamentary elections. It turned out that there were adequate Members of Ziobra and Gowin from the common list that each of them could theoretically collect the majority of the Law and Justice in the event of a breach of the agreement. From that point on, Gowin began to sit closer to the centre than PiS, while Ziobro settled between PiS and the Confederate. The main challenge for Kaczyński became to regain control of his own coalition.
The pretext for the proceeding with Jarosław Gowin's environment proved to be his opposition to organising without legal basis the 2020 presidential election in correspondence form. In the following months, with the aid of Adam Bielan, the majority of Gowin MPs were "made" to control to the Law and Justice Party. Gowin himself with a fistful of loyalists was pushed out of the coalition and replaced with Paul Kukiz's men. The breakdown of the centre coalition strengthened Kaczyński's power in the United Right. However, the problem of Solidarne Poland remains.
The Zbigniew Ziobry organization proved to be a tougher nut to crack. This environment has based its political message on being more right-wing than PiS. This is an aversion to the EU, an utmost distrust of Germany, opposition to the extinction of coal mines, support for draconian changes to the legal code, and fight against left-wing public perception. These attitudes gained the Ziobrze sympathy of many right-wing media, including “Redia Maryja”, as well as more hard-headed members of the Law and Justice Service.
Oil is added to the fire by the issue of individual resentment between Ziobra and Prime Minister Morawiecki. Both gentlemen are suspected of wanting to take over the political legacy of Kaczyński in the event of his retirement. From the appearance of Morawiecki as a associate of the PiS and Prime Minister enjoying authoritative trust and support of Kaczyński should not fear Ziobra, but it is different. Many people in the Law and Justice itself see the Prime Minister as a abroad body, a technocrat banker who advised Tusk before reaching the United Right. His opponents are besides supporters of erstwhile Prime Minister Beata Szydło, who are most likely in a tactical alliance with Solidarna Polska. A major field of competition between the Prime Minister and the Minister is besides the positions in the Treasury companies.
The last fewer days have made the dispute worse. The hold by Ms Anna Siarkowska, together with the opposition to the gathering in the Sejm committee on the draft amendment of the Constitution, in order to let Russian property to be confiscated in Poland and to exclude military spending from the debt limit, was a amazing escalation from Solidarne Poland. This may be due to the increasing tendency of the PiS part (leaded by the Prime Minister) to retreat from the parts forced by Ziobra of judicial reforms to unlock funds from the National Recovery Plan. To the people of Ziobry, this is unacceptable due to the fact that they were the authors of it, and in addition, they effort to gain for themselves a part of the hard electorate of PiS supporting a sharp course in the dispute with Brussels.
Sabotage of Siarkowska and accusations made by Euro MP Patrick Kojek at Morawiecki about manipulating Kaczyński on EU issues have not remained unanswered by PiS. Due to the absence of respective of his MPs, the Ziobry Act on notariat did not pass in the Sejm. erstwhile asked about this in an interview with RMF FM Ziobro, he considered this situation to be a coincidence. This may indicate that he is not ready for a confrontation yet.
According to the polls, Poland remains without a chance to enter the Sejm independently, while a possible coalition with the Confederation is improbable and could affect alienation of any supporters of both formations. Ziobro seems to be aware of these weaknesses. possibly his strategy for the coming year is to persist in the coalition with the Law and Justice, to win good places on the common lists and to usage his group's decisive right-wing rhetoric to build adequate designation among the right-wing voters to repeat the success of 2019 and to become again an irreparable Kaczyński coalition. Taking this way involves the hazard of losing with PiS or breaking up the faction as a consequence of the arrangement of parts of its members with Kaczyński. This option can nevertheless be the best solution for Ziebra.
Oskar KMAK
