The Slovaks will elect a fresh president of the country next Saturday (06.04.2024). To the second circular of elections went erstwhile diplomatic chief Ivan Korčok, an independent candidate supported by Liberal parties, and Peter Pellegrini, talker of Parliament and erstwhile Prime Minister of the Social Democratic Hlas Party. In the last pre-election polls you can see a very interesting, leveled duel with a delicate indication on Pellegrini (51-53% to 49-47%), who is simply a political educator and current coalition of populist Prime Minister Robert Fica, a veteran of Slovak politics on authoritarian urges and pro-Kremlowian sympathies. That is why the real stake of the Saturday presidential election is the future of Slovak democracy and abroad policy after Fica may have reached for almost full power in the country. With the amazingly good consequence of Korčok in the first round, the race for the presidential seat will stay open until the end.
Slovak presidents do not want to search re-election
In June 2023, president Zuzana Čaputová announced that she would not search re-election, which, given her advanced public confidence, accepted with large surprise both in the country and in the West. By translating his decision, Čaputová indicated on individual and household considerations, especially the difficulty in dealing with the dense burden of office of the head of state and continuous personnel attacks, among others from the head of the then opposition Robert Facy, who He called Čaputova, among others, “American agent”. Meanwhile, like last time, summarized Financial Times, Čaputová has been seen in fresh years as a refuge for liberal-democratic politics in Central Europe. any They saw In her possible candidate for NATO chief. It is interesting that only Ivan Gašparovič (2004-2014) applied for re-election from the current Slovak presidents, the another predecessors of Čaputova besides voluntarily finished office after the first term.
Surprisingly good consequence of Korčok in the first round
On 23 March, the first circular of elections was held, in which the first 2 seats took place:
- Ivan Korčok (42.52%) – erstwhile head of Slovak diplomacy (2020-2022) in the centre-right governments of Matović and Heger, who competes as an independent candidate supported by centre-liberal environments (Progressive Slovakia, Christian-Democratic Movement, Freedom and Solidarity). Korčok is simply a professional diplomat who was the Ambassador of Slovakia to the USA, Germany and the European Union. Openly advocates a pro-Atlantic course in Slovakia's abroad policy and maintaining assistance for the fighting Ukraine.
- Peter Pellegrini (37.03%) – current president of the National Council and leader of the co-ordinating Hlas party, who was Prime Minister for 2 years (2018-2020) at the end of erstwhile SMER governments. He is simply a political educator and close ally of Robert Facy. In abroad policy, he actively supports his skeptical course towards the West, advocating the request to prosecute a “peaceful” solution to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Therefore, Pellegrini tries to present as a presidential candidate in the campaign, who will work harmoniously with the Ficy government and will not affect Slovakia in “the conflict of powers”.
Among the remaining candidates fighting for the presidency in the first circular is worth mentioning: Štefan Harabina (11.74%), erstwhile president of the ultimate Court with pro-Kremlovian sympathies, Krisztiána Forró (2.91%) from the Hungarian number organization “Hungarian Soyusz”, Igora Matovicia (2.18%), erstwhile Prime Minister of Conservative “Slovakia” and Mr Jána Kubiša (2.04%),Former head of the MFA starting as an independent candidate.
Korčok's very good consequence in the first circular – both the percent consequence and the first place – is rather a surprise. Most pollers forecast Pellegrini's modest triumph (mostly 37% to 36%). Apart from the specified underestimate of Korčok, it seems that the highest attendance in 25 years has besides played an crucial role, driven by an always deeper polarisation of the society, a negative run led by the government camp for Pellegrini and against Korčok, and crucial concerns for the future of Slovak democracy under Prime Minister Fica and possibly president Pellegrini. The amazing consequence of Korčok cause panic in a government camp, which even more focused on polarization around the war in Ukraine. On the 1 hand Pellegrini is presented as a candidate for moderation, political stableness and “a area that will not drag Slovakia into any conflict of powers”. On the another hand, Korčok is called the “marion of the West” which will carry out “the interests of the Washington and Brussels elites” alternatively than “ordinary Slovaks”. Prime Minister Fico Run At the same time to absurd manipulation techniques, suggesting, among another things, the link between Korčok's diplomatic mission as Slovakia's vice-ambassador to NATO between 1999 and 2001 (when Slovakia was not even in NATO yet) and his alleged support for war activities, including NATO's intervention in Yugoslavia.
In addition, after announcing the results of the first round, the fight for the support of the remaining candidates began immediately. In a natural way, pro-Russian supporters of Štefan Harabin, who, contrary to the statements of his chief of staff, are the most avaricious part, are the supporters of the pro-Russian Štefan Harabin, who yet support Pellegrini. not formulated no recommendation, claiming that “his voters know what to do”. In the second circular of elections, it may besides be crucial to support the Hungarian minority, who in the first circular mostly supported its cultural candidate Krisztián Forró. Despite Korčok's efforts, the Hungarian Alliance leader rapidly announced his support for Pellegrini. erstwhile Head of the Slovak Diplomacy of Kubiš refused To take sides.
Fico for the 3rd time
The main character of Slovak politics for little than 2 decades is Robert Fico, the founder of at least officially the Social Democratic SMER organization (p. Direction), which has become increasingly identified with the government over the next years. corruption, populism, links to A Criminal World, Nationalist-authoritarian the kind of power and favour Kremlin interests in abroad policy.
Therefore, they cannot be surprised. comparison Ficy to Vladimir Mečiara, authoritarian Slovak Prime Minister from 1990-98, whose governments delayed the integration of the country with western structures by respective years (Slovakia joined NATO only 5 years after the remaining Visegrad Group countries). Fico has already been in charge of the Slovak government 3 times, i.e. in 2006-2010, 2012-2018 and again since autumn 2023. Interestingly, he himself took part in the 2014 presidential election, which he yet lost in the second circular to Liberal entrepreneur Andrej Kiska.
In 2018, it seemed that the end of the political career of SMER leader was doomed. Fico had to abruptly step aside from the position of Prime Minister under the force of social protests which broke out after the assassination of investigative writer Ján Kuciak and his fiancée Martina Kušnírova. Kuciak described suspicious interests of businessmen associated with the ruling organization of SMER and the Mária Troškova unions, assistant prime minister Fico, with the Italian mafia. The successor of Fico in the Prime Minister's seat was Peter Pellegrini, then Deputy Prime Minister for Investment and Information Technology. Despite the change of the SMER Prime Minister, he was no longer able to rise himself after those events and lost his power to the four-party, centre-right coalition (OŞaNO-Sme rodina-Za ľudí-Sloboda a Solidarita) led by Prime Minister Igor Matović.
After the failure of power in 2020, Pellegrini uncommon from SMER and announced the creation of its own organization – Hlas, officially besides on the social democratic profile, in fact conservative, especially on social issues. At the same time, SMER led by Fico He's back. to its proven political instrumentarium, i.e. negative camping, mobilising anti-system electorate and inciting social divisions. For example, during the pandemic period, social opposition to SMER was a convenient subject Covid exacerbations, and after Russia's aggression against Ukraine, Fico began building political capital on opposition to transportation Helping KievWhat the centre-right government of Eduardo Heger became powerfully active in. After 3 years of chaotic and unstable central-right rule, ending with an early election, after power in the fall of 2023 he reached Fico again, recreating de facto his erstwhile coalition with Hlas Pellegrini and the ultranationalist Slovak National organization (SNS).
Rapid dismantling of state institutions
Immediately after returning to power, Fico began dismantling and neutralizing the uncomfortable political institutions of the state for his camp. In February government majority adopted a package of laws which importantly reduced penalties for many corruption and taxation offences and shortened their limitation period. In March, the Office of the peculiar Prosecutor's Office, an elite investigative unit operating since 2004 and supervising the proceedings in the most serious criminal matters was liquidated. The leading investigators of the National Criminal Agency of Slovakia (NAKA) were besides dismissed. These fast changes, weakening the independency of the judicial institutions, were opposed by the Slovaks themselves, who crowded protest against the anti-democratic actions of the Fica government and EU institutions which They're afraid the state of the regulation of law in Slovakia and warning against the risks associated with the correct spending of EU funds.
In addition, the government coalition is in the process of making changes that allow her to change the management of state tv RTVS, accused by Fica of attacking the government and promoting lies about his policies. Opposition parties and NGOs inform that the RTVS (which, as indicates The Reuters Institute for the survey of Journalism study, is trusted by more than half of Slovaks) will be converted into a tool of a government propaganda with a fresh name STaR (Slovenská televízia a rozhlas). Hazardous They besides feel the leading private media, which Prime Minister Fico threatens to remove the concession, calling it “enemy to the government” and “unwelcome” in his law firm. For example, the most popular tv Markiza has already limited air time devoted to political themes in consequence to Prime Minister's threats.
The noticeable change, for the time being primarily narrative, has besides taken place in Slovak abroad policy. Following the beginning of the declared commitment to Ukraine by the centre-right governments of Matović and Heger, Ficy's squad advocates “a key abroad policy” of Slovakia, Accusing for contrasting neighboring Ukraine to stay under “total influence and control of the US”. They besides echoed declarations Ficy, primarily for interior use, to halt military support for the east neighbour and reports about the gathering of the Slovak Diplomatic Head Juraj Blanár with his Russian counterpart Lavrow on the occasion of the March Diplomatic Forum in Antalya. In fact, the Fica government maintains a pragmatic course towards Ukraine so far, without blocking – unlike neighbouring Hungary – EU aid to Kiev and declaring support for the European aspirations of Ukrainians during bilateral meetings. However, 1 should be aware of the hazard that Fica's course towards Ukraine may be tightened up (e.g. in Hungarian terms) in the event of a deterioration in Bratislava's relation with Brussels over the regulation of law.
The presidency does not matter
The constitutional position of the president of Slovakia is weaker than its Polish counterpart, but it is not simply a ceremonial function. The head of state has instruments to – at least – hold the entry into force of legislative solutions with which he disagrees: the alleged weak veto (to reject which the qualified majority in the National Council is not needed) and the right to mention the bill to the Constitutional Court in Košice, which may suspend its validity for the time of the examination of compliance with the Constitution. It's just these powers. used the current president Zuzana Čaputová with respect to these laws softening the provisions of the Criminal Code.
From the point of view of the current government camp, the President's crucial power is besides the right of grace by which Pellegrini could supply impunity to many colleagues in the government coalition, against whom criminal proceedings are inactive under way. It is worth noting that during the last 3 years of the centre-right rule, more than 40 people associated with Fica's erstwhile cabinet were convicted of corruption and abuse of power.
Although, according to the constitution, abroad policy is conducted by the government, the head of state inactive remains the highest typical of the country on the global stage, which can importantly influence the improvement of a affirmative image of Slovakia in the eyes of abroad partners, a good example of which is the nearing end of the presidency of Čaputova. It is besides crucial that relations are built at the level of Heads of State or in multilateral presidential formats.
Therefore, this Saturday the Slovaks will in fact be faced with the question whether they want to entrust Fica with even more power with all of these consequences, or whether they like to hold the anticipation of curbing violent, frequently anti-state changes in law and nuanceing the image of the global Slovakia, which is increasingly seen as a country moving distant from the West through prokremlian rhetoric. In the event of Pellegrini's victory, only the Constitutional Court would stay the last centre of power not subordinate to Ficy. At least for any time, as the judges of the institution are besides appointed by the president for a 12-year word of office from among the candidates submitted by the National Council, at that point controlled by the SMER-Hlas-SNS coalition.
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