Around the world, 9 countries have atomic weapons and almost all of them continued intensive modernisation programmes in 2024, improving it and adding newer versions. This is 1 of the key findings of this year's study by the Stockholm global Institute for Peace investigation (SIPRI), an yearly assessment of the state of arms, disarmament and global security.
In the mid-1980s, the number of atomic warheads, bombs and missiles worldwide was about 64,000. presently this figure is estimated to be 12 241, but this trend seems to be reversed. “The most disturbing thing we see in atomic arsenals present is that long-term simplification in atomic warheads seems to be coming to an end,” says DW manager SIPRI Dan Smith.
No more atomic disarmament.
Since the collapse of the russian Union in 1991 and the end of the Cold War, more decommissioned atomic warheads have been dismantled than fresh ones have been deployed.
Although the modernisation and modernisation of atomic possible by atomic weapons states is common practice, SIPRI believes this process intensified at the end of the last word of US president Barack Obama, along with more investment in fresh generations of missiles and aircraft carriers. "The safety horizon around the planet had already been darkening a fewer years earlier, and nuclear-weapon states had begun to introduce processes of what we would call an intense process of modernization, but truly fast changes," said Smith.
According to SIPRI researchers, from estimated 12,241 atomic warheads worldwide, around 9614 were in military retention in January this year: placed on rocket missiles either in bases with operational forces or in a central warehouse that could possibly be deployed.
It is estimated that 3912 of these warheads were deployed in rocket missiles and aircraft, of which about 2100 were kept high-precision on ballistic missiles. Almost all of them belonged to Russia or the United States, but China may besides hold any warheads on missiles.
Among countries armed with atomic weapons – the United States, Russia, large Britain, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea and Israel – Russia and the US have 90% of all atomic weapons. SIPRI analysts are now informing that more and more countries are considering developing or having specified weapons and national debates on atomic position and strategy have been revived.
This includes fresh arrangements for sharing atomic arsenals: Russia claims that it has deployed atomic weapons to Belarus, while respective European NATO associate States have signaled their willingness to adopt American atomic weapons.
Security at risk
In 2007, Russian president Vladimir Putin gave a speech at the Munich safety Conference, in which he opposed the US-dominated planet order, NATO's expansion to the east and disarmament.
But just 2 years later, in 2009, Obama announced in Prague the goal of full atomic disarmament. "The existence of thousands of atomic weapons is the most dangerous legacy of the Cold War," he said. He added that the United States will "take concrete steps towards a planet without atomic weapons" and negociate a fresh strategical Weapons simplification Agreement (New START) with Russia. This treaty was signed and entered into force in 2011.
However, following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 the administration Bidena published a review of the atomic situation of 2022 in which the modernisation of the American atomic arsenal was considered the highest priority. In February 2023, Russian president Vladimir Putin signed a bill to hold Russia's participation in the fresh START Treaty. “The wave of uncertainty has grown slow since 2007-2008, through 2014 until the climax in February 2022,” says Dan Smith. "It was at that time that many average citizens found the situation worse, although this has been maintained for over a decade.
Arsenals are upgraded
It is crucial that global atomic arsenals are enlarged and upgraded. SIPRI estimates that China presently has at least 600 atomic warheads, and their atomic arsenal grows faster than in any another country.
According to SIPRI, India besides somewhat expanded its atomic arsenal in 2024, while Pakistan continued to make fresh transfer and accumulation systems for fissile materials – a key atomic component.
Israel, which launched attacks on Iran's atomic facilities on 13 June, killing military leaders and atomic scientists, is in the process of upgrading its own atomic arsenal, as well as upgrading the reactor to produce plutonium in the Negev Desert, according to a SIPRI report.
The function of Artificial Intelligence
In the introduction to the SIPRI Yearbook 2025, Dan Smith warns against the possible of a fresh atomic arms race that carries with it "a much greater hazard and uncertainty" than in the Cold War era – mainly due to the improvement of artificial intelligence and fresh technologies in the field of cybernetic capabilities and space resources. – The upcoming atomic arms race will be about the same amount of artificial intelligence, cyberspace and space as missiles in bunkers or submarines or bombs in aircraft. It will cover both software and hardware," says the SIPRI chief. This complicates control and monitoring of atomic weapons and supplies.
For a long time there have been discussions about artificial intelligence regarding what is commonly called "killers' robots" and the usage of automated and semi-automatic drones, but not so much with respect to atomic weapons. Artificial intelligence allows for an highly fast processing of large amounts of information, which should theoretically aid decision-makers to respond faster. However, if something goes incorrect in software or strategy entirely dependent on large language models of artificial intelligence, a insignificant method failure could possibly lead to atomic attack.
“There must be a red line with which all political and military leaders will most likely agree that the decision to launch a atomic rocket cannot be taken by artificial intelligence,” said Smith, pointing out, for example, the russian Lieutenant Colonel Stanisław Petrov.
Who's going to be Petrov?
In 1983, Petrov served at the russian command center of the early atomic informing strategy erstwhile the strategy reported the launch of an intercontinental ballistic rocket from the US and followed by 4 more.
Fortunately, Petrov felt that there was a computer mistake and alternatively of giving information to the command, he waited. It was a decision that most likely prevented a retaliatory atomic strike and, in the worst case, a full-scale atomic war. – I say the most crucial question is: who in the planet of artificial intelligence will become Lieutenant Colonel Petrov? says Dan Smith.
