Good morning,
I invitation you to a subjective review of the Russian press that I hope will aid you..
COMERSANT
1. Disaster in the gas market.
Gas prices have fallen by 66% since the beginning of the year, June word contracts on the Dutch TTF have fallen by 10.23% on 25 May, to €24.94 per 1 MWh, or around USD 280 per 1000 m3.
Gas prices in Europe will proceed to fall . The combination of favorable factors – advanced stocks, unchangeable LNG flow, low consumption and heat weather – continues to consequence in lower prices. In Europe, marketplace experts already this summertime are beginning to anticipate negative gas prices due to overcapacity in the market. Russia's budget was planned for a much higher gas price, resulting in a US$3-4 billion failure in 2023 only from export work revenue, let alone the MET tax.
Stable advanced LNG supplies to the continent, heat weather and advanced PMG stocks proceed to influence price depression. According to AGSI+, average European stocks are presently 66.5% and are likely to be filled in 90% by the end of August.
Bloomberg , besides states that in the summertime the European marketplace may be overburdened. And if weak request is not equal to rising surplus supply, in any cases natural gas prices may fall short below zero. This script is certain for the UK, which was already in this situation in 2006, writes the agency. In this case, the sellers actually pay to collect the gas due to the fact that it is more profitable than its storage. specified situations arise periodically on the European electricity market.
According to the European Commission's forecasts, the request for gas in the EU over the next 12 months may fall more than the volumes of pipeline gas and LNG that countries anticipate to buy from Russia this year, which will aid to reduce inflationary force on the block, writes Reuters, citing the letter of European Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson. According to her estimates, energy savings policy should reduce gas consumption on the continent by 60 billion cubic metres in 2023. From August 2022 to March 2023, request for gas in EU countries decreased by 18%.
The Russian government hoped for importantly higher prices in EU countries in 2023: The Ministry of Economy has planned prices for $700 per 1000 m3 .
2. Russia's planet champion in planning.
This time, the government approved the concept of technological improvement of the Russian Federation until 2030 – the paper sets out guidelines for state policy on the way to "technological integrity", innovative economical growth and import substitution.
The government is to earmark support measures for precedence technologies and products - the budget size and private financing of the concept mechanisms is estimated at 3 trillion rubles . The work covers 3 areas: reducing the gap between discipline and production as part of major innovation projects involving the state, involving business in innovation through financial incentives and deregulation, and implementing "megaprojects" for the production of high-tech products with state support not only for final production but besides for the technological cycle. Within a month, the Ministry of Economy and the Ministry of Education and discipline will present a plan to implement the strategy. (Remember the top money is made... )
A paper drawn up by the first Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov (the top pest and full dyledant) with the participation of business, the technological community, expert business and taking into account strategical government sessions to establish work priorities, taking into account sanctions. "In connection with sanctions, the existing model of reproduction of technological innovations, consisting in the import of machinery and technology, is no longer up to date. In fact, for the first time in 25 years, since 2000, we have an independent technological policy entity," said Andrei Belousov. .
In practice, this should lead to the creation of its own lines of technological development, an increase in business innovation and the emergence of home high-tech goods and services. ( Andrei is specified a hotel kid about his career could compose a book,)
The concept aims to accomplish "technological integrity" and includes 3 extended objectives: by 2030, to guarantee state control over the reproduction of precedence technologies, innovative economical growth and sustainable improvement of production systems.
Ten megaprojects have already been approved. They are associated with the location of the manufacture of medicines, medical devices, equipment, device tools, electronic and radioelectronic products, ships and ship equipment, as well as the improvement of unmanned aircraft systems. The full investment is expected to exceed 100 billion rubles. In the close future, the list can be expanded to include platforms for industrial poultry farming as well as construction and road complexes.
3.Putin proposed the creation of an Eurasian rating agency
Russian president Vladimir Putin proposed the creation of an Eurasian rating agency. In his opinion, this should constitute an ‘adequate’ assessment of the increasing economical activity in EurAsEC.
It would be useful to set up an Eurasian credit rating agency to guarantee that adequate assessment tools are available for increasing economical activity in EurAsEC. But here, of course, we request a principled approach, strict criteria and the ability to comply with these criteria," Putin said at the gathering of the ultimate Eurasian economical Council.
4.
On May 26, Russian president Vladimir Putin at a gathering with Delovaya Rossiya proposed to announce a five-year creative enterprise in the country.
I propose to discuss another initiative today, announcing the 5th anniversary of creative entrepreneurship in Russia," he said.
The head of state stressed that this five-year period should be filled with concrete, substantive work, not just authoritative or quasi-official proto-collar events.
Putin so proposed to improve the business and investment climate, increase the efficiency and modernisation of economical sectors, staff training and vocational education, fresh formats of public-private partnership and another issues.
The president added that he was waiting for meaningful proposals on this issue from Delowaj Rossij, the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (RSPP), the Opory of Rossia and another business associations.
During the same meeting, the Russian leader pointed out that most home businessmen had acted to show that their interests were related to the Russian Federation. He besides noted that Russian business actively develops niches after many abroad brands left the country.
Earlier, on 16 March the president of the Russian Federation in his speech at the legislature of RSPP proposed the establishment of a prize for the most liable national companies. He pointed out that the State intends to "in all way possible" support liable business, as well as those who are willing to fight for their business and the good of their teams.
5. The Central Bank assessed the scale of the withdrawal of abroad companies and its consequences for rubla(Amba Fatima motto mia)
During the year, non-residents conducted 200 sales transactions of Russian companies, including 5 out of over US$2 billion in total. Their decision to sale increases the debt of buyers, increases the hazard of banks and besides puts force on the abroad exchange market, says the Central Bank.
Foreign investors made about 200 sales of their Russian assets, reported the Bank of Russia in the review.
The Central Bank does not want to disclose the volume of specified sales, but indicated that 20%, or 40 transactions, active the exit of non-residents from large assets, each estimated at over 100 million dollars. Additionally, since October 2022 the regulator said there were 5 transactions worth a full of US$2 billion
After the start of the Russian military operation in Ukraine and Western sanctions, most abroad companies announced their intention to limit their operations in Russia, sale assets or halt investing. In response, the authorities introduced difficulties and a peculiar procedure to registry specified transactions for non-residents: They can only take place with the approval of a peculiar specialised subcommittee at the government. In August, president Vladimir Putin signed a decree prohibiting the conclusion of exit agreements from the financial and fuel and energy sectors without peculiar decree from the President. In addition, transactions above $1 billion are presently prohibited, in the currency of unfriendly countries.
According to Bloomberg's calculations, in 2022 abroad companies that left Russia sold assets worth US$20 billion and AK&M estimated the volume of specified sales at US$16.31 billion in 2022. The value of sales for this year is unknown.
As noted in the review, Russian consumers have been affected by the withdrawal from the home marketplace of large abroad companies from the catering sector, as well as the retail trade in clothing, furniture and household items. "This in turn had a negative impact on the commercial real property market", the Central Bank points out.
In general, the Central Bank considers that transactions in the sale of Russian assets by non-residents have an increased risk: Firstly, the change of ownership in any cases leads to a ‘total restructuring of the business model of the company being acquired’.
We are talking about situations where companies request to change their cooperation chains if they were previously based on interaction with counterparties from unfriendly countries and dependent on abroad supply.
The sale of assets by foreigners increases the debt of the enterprise sector.
Many of these transactions are financed by bank loans to buyers "All of this can lead to additional risks to banks. These threats can accumulate and then manifest in a stronger way," says the review. However, the Central Bank did not disclose the size of the loans granted by the Russian banks to finance the acquisition of abroad investors' assets.
According to the Bank of Russia, the debt of Russian non-financial companies is 45 trillion rubles on 1 April. for bank loans in rubles and $119.4 billion for currency loans, another 9.4 trillion rubles. cleared from issued bonds. The debt of this group of customers to non-residents at the beginning of the year was 13.7 trillion rubles.
"In particular, in the first 4th of 2023 the backlog of loans to freight and construction companies began to grow," the review says. The regulator besides points out that 1 in 5 loans to large companies, which had been restructured after the start of the crisis last year, was restructured by banks again.
Settlements with non-residents put force on the abroad exchange marketplace .
As noted in the review, payments to sellers are made in unfriendly currencies of countries, under fresh conditions of sanctions this could consequence in "a liquidity disaster in the currency market". So far this origin has not been crucial, but this year its impact may increase – warns the regulator.
"In fact, we are dealing with a marketplace that has become scarcely liquid – tiny transactions can importantly change course," Matovnikov noted at the conference on 25 May. According to the estimates of the main analyst of Sbierbank, at the beginning of this year the volume of highly liquid abroad exchange assets in the banking sector was $52.5 billion, 19.3% more than before the crisis. The national [currency] marketplace has actually become radically small" – he described the problem. In specified a situation, even the "poor $1.5 billion" that was needed to settle with Shell, "the company was forced to buy half the free yuan in adequate amounts in dollars and euro,
If this combination has made you sweet, you can buy coffee to the author publications.
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