- – The Russian threat should not be underestimated, but the engagement of Russian forces in the war in Ukraine is critically complicated Moscow is capable of real force projection in another directions – says Colonel Maciej Korowaj
- According to the analyst, Gen. Komornicki considered the “arm in the rear” Russian conscripts. “In this case, we are talking about basic service soldiers with different degrees of training and association in terms of operational capabilities,” added Colonel Korowaj
- However, the analyst notes that the Russians have taken certain actions that may be worrying the Baltics. For this is the way to treat the reconstruction of Leningrad Military territory and Moscow Military District
- More specified comments can be found on the Onetu homepage
“Russians build a powerful army in the back. If peace is not achieved and the NATO break-up persists, Russia will attack the Baltic countries“ – those are the words of General Leon Komornicki, erstwhile Deputy Chief of General Staff of the Polish Army. It was quoted on Thursday by the editorial board PoliticoThe general, referring to the anticipation of attacking the Baltics, besides said: “This may happen at the end of this year or at the beginning of next year. The invasion is part of their plan."
– In my opinion, sir General replicates Russian communicative of panic of NATO and Europe. Of course, the Russian threat should not be underestimated, nevertheless Russia's engagement in the war in Ukraine is critically complicated Moscow anticipation of real force projection on another directionsh – begins Colonel Maciej Korowaj, an analyst of Russian military.
"Gen. Komornicki confuses soldiers"
Onetu's talker does not hide his skepticism against the opinion given in Politico.
– It is crucial to realise 1 fact: 90 percent of Russian land forces are now active in a "special war operation", as they call actions in Ukraine," says Colonel Korowaj. – These soldiers participate in them after signing a contract with the Ministry of Defence for at least a year for a very large amount of money. This PLN 10,000 per period for a Russian private, fighting in Ukraine, in terms of gold is simply a lot, even for our conditions, and especially a lot in Russia. Especially since contract soldiers are recruited from poorer areas. They usually come from the alleged depth.
Colonel Korowaj says that there are about 700,000 alleged contractsmen (there are besides the forces of Rosgwardia or another structures of the Ministry of the Interior – besides active in Ukraine: usually in securing the "back zone").
– But 1 thing to remember: these “contractors” rotate. 1 part fights, the another part rests, says Onet an analyst. – I Of course, we inactive have a periodic service of about 300,000 people.. That's 2 drafts: spring and winter.
From the Colonel's words. Korowaja shows that Gen. Komornicka of these conscripts considered the "arm in the rear".
– Gen. Komornicki confuses contract soldiers with conscripts said the analyst. - These. 300,000 people for a Russian hit possible against the Natovian forces active in defending the Baltic countries is simply a lot. But in this case, we are talking about basic service soldiers of varying degrees of training. and associations as regards the ability to conduct operations.
“First we would gotta end or “freeze” the war in Ukraine”
Colonel Korowaj considers that General Komornicki's predictions of an attack on the Baltic countries may prove to be actual if the Russian Federation's armed forces were first exempted from conducting a "special war operation". Then, possibly, units withdrawn from Ukraine, re-commissioned, supplemented by temporary service soldiers, would pose a serious military threat to the Baltic States.
– But this is simply a reasonably long process, due to the fact that first we would gotta end or “freeze” the war in Ukraine. And in specified a way that the Ukrainians would not, or could not, reflect the occupied areas," said Colonel Korowaj (because specified a willingness to reflect would proceed to bind Russian forces in these territories). "At the same time, I avoid the problems of providing adequate weapons for Russian forces to attack NATO troops. Then The attack that General Komornicki was talking about is theoretically possible, but a number of very circumstantial and critical conditions must be met..
Finally, the analyst notes that The Russians have taken action to meet these conditions. For this is the way to treat the reconstruction of Leningrad Military territory and Moscow Military District (both existed until 2010, they were late re-selected from the West Military District).
As Colonel Korowaj says, both structures are now in formation, for example fresh railway brigades are being created for them. However, which means that there will be no decision to attack NATO during specified modernisation. And the operation of the fresh structures, after they were rebuilt, the Russians would first gotta test – for example in the large “Zapad” maneuvers (in Russian, “West”) conducted jointly with the Belarusians. The “Zapad-2025” maneuvers are planned for mid-September.
