Putin has Trump in his hand. The president of the United States has been so played that he practically meets all Moscow's demands. During the Alaska Summit this Friday Vladimir Putin will be able to announce triumph over Ukraine.
It is actual that Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenski is to be invited to the summit. However, it is already known that it will only be an extra. He'll get nothing more than crumbs on territorial division.
Of course, the main nonsubjective of the negotiations will be to end the bloodshed. However, the price for Ukrainians is high. Putin wants to join Russia not only annexed in 2014. Crimea, but besides the territories of east and confederate Ukraine occupied since 2022 and areas not yet purchased in Lugansk and Donetsk circuits. Furthermore, the Russian president demands that Ukraine resign from NATO membership.
On the another hand, the question arises what Putin offers Ukraine in addition to the ceasefire. The discussion concerns only the withdrawal from individual areas in the north-east of the country, specifically from parts of the Kharkiv and Summarist circuits, which is expected to be an alleged "gestion of goodwill".
However, it is only limited areas with individual villages. By comparison, the Russians occupy about 120 1000 sq mi — 1 5th of Ukraine — and would return only a fewer twelve kilometres.
It's understandable that Zelenski does not agree to specified an agreement negotiated above his head. It is supported by European allies. In a joint statement, Germany, France, Italy, Poland, the United Kingdom, Finland and the European Commission request that the Russians retreat the soldiers first before a discussion on the peace solution begins.
However, the influence of European allies, who are partially divided and, as is presently the case, are constantly forming fresh alliances, is comparatively small. Ukraine is primarily assisted by arms supply and intelligence from the United States. If they halt coming, Kiev will be in trouble.
The Kremlin wants more
If Trump and Putin make an agreement, Ukraine will stay nothing but to step down. This would be a ceasefire, but it would not mean the end of the war.
The American think tank Institute for War Studies warns that giving Russia territories that are not yet occupied would give it a strategical advantage. Ukraine, as well as many European countries are afraid that After respite, Putin may break the ceasefire and, through the concessions obtained, more effectively enter the conquest of subsequent territories.
Diego Herrera Carcedo/Anadol via Getty Images / Contributor / Getty ImagesUkrainian soldier on the front (picture)
According to many experts, Russia's goal is to reconstruct the erstwhile power of the russian Union. Ukrainian abroad Minister Andrij Sybiha warns against “presents” for the aggressor. "Every concession will lead to further aggression," said Sybiha.
As shortly as Putin can officially recognise Ukraine's territories as Russian, he will most likely rapidly find an excuse for a fresh "special military operation". 1 of them is apparent —demand reparations for demolition in the supposedly ‘his’ fresh territory.
World Bank estimates the cost of reconstruction destroyed by the war of Ukraine at over half a trillion dollars. (about PLN 1 trillion, counting at the current exchange rate). If Putin takes over any of the devastated regions, he can claim money to rebuild them. It's just a smoke screen, of course. Since neither Ukraine nor another countries will want to pay, Putin may effort to justify the usage of force.
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