Given the current rate of reinforcement, according to the German safety circles, Russia will constitute a "serious military threat" to NATO by conventional weapons by 2028. Until then, the Kremlin will do everything in its power to take control of the Ukrainian Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporosian and Khersonese circuits which were annexed in violation of global law by 2026.
Russia is already arming itself over the needs of its troops in Ukraine. “ all month, the Russian army has more tanks, more ammunition, more missiles, and more drones. Production grows, stocks in warehouses also," said Major General Christian Freuding, head of the Ukrainian Situation Centre at the Ministry of Defence. He stressed that there was no certainty that Russia was actually planning an attack. “But Moscow clearly creates conditions,” Freuding said.
A immense threat to Europe
Security circles claim that the Kremlin mostly compensates for its individual and material losses in Ukraine and is able to accumulate reserves in any areas. According to these sources, Russia presently produces about 3,000 bombs per month, weighing up to 3 tons depending on the model, as well as thousands of precision UMPB D gliders with a large scope of about 100 km.
Russian companies and volunteers produce 1.5 million drones per year, which are controlled from the position of the first individual utilizing the camera. In addition, at least six 1000 long-range drones are produced in Russia each year, Shahid. Many components for these unmanned aircraft come from China.
European intelligence services study that the Russian army is growing. According to them, Moscow recruits about 30,000 soldiers per period with advanced financial incentives. Last year Putin ordered the army to increase to 1.5 million active members of the service. However, all day hundreds of Russian soldiers are killed or injured on the Ukrainian front.
The Russian army besides receives support from abroad fighters. About 12,000 North Korean soldiers have already been deployed. By comparison, the German army has 180 1000 active soldiers, Polish 205 1000 according to the Ministry of Defence.
Marie Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, president of the safety and Defence Committee in the European Parliament, classifies Kremlin's reinforcements as a "great threat" to Europe. “ Russia has an awesome number of soldiers and a wide scope of powerful equipment,” said a politician in a conversation with Welt am Sonntag. However, as she noted, the war in Ukraine besides revealed Russia's weaknesses, "especially in terms of logistics, outdated equipment and a crucial deficiency of morale of soldiers".
KAY NIETFELD / PAPpresident of the Committee on safety and Defence in the European Parliament Marie Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, Berlin, 24 February 2022.
“This makes Russia highly dangerous”
Military analyst Nico Lange warns against simply looking at the number of soldiers or tanks erstwhile assessing the possible for threat. “ Russia has the will to usage violent military force and accept advanced casualties. This makes Russia highly dangerous, says Lange, a elder worker of the Munich safety Conference.
Russia is already conducting a hybrid war against Germany and the West, for example through sabotage and cyber attacks. Lange believes that another Russian attack in Europe is realistic.
“ He says.
Christian-Democratic Union expert on defence Roderich Kiesewetter sees Russia's hybrid attacks in Europe as a "preliminary war stage". The Kremlin is preparing the battlefield. This besides includes spy activities. Kiesewetter believes that the attack on a NATO associate is likely to happen in “one to 3 years”As in the alleged Narva scenario. The 3rd largest city of Estonia, Narwa, lies on the border with Russia and is considered a possible target.
Crazy production rate
Russia besides has an advantage over Western states as regards the acquisition of artillery missiles. While Ukrainian rocket shortages were catastrophic in erstwhile phases of this war, Russia produces up to 3.6 million missiles a year According to the German government experts estimates. For comparison, the United States plans to increase the monthly production of 155-mm artillery missiles to 1.2 million per year.
The Russian Army has so far been able to compensate for four-digit tank losses on the Ukrainian front, but is mainly based on old supplies. The reserves of combat vehicles and combat infantry cars are to be adequate for at least another year of war of current intensity. As far as fighters are concerned, yearly production is limited and is simply a two-digit number of aircraft.
The long-range weapons possible is greater. Russia produces respective 100 maneuvering and ballistic missiles a year. Iran and North Korea besides supply ballistic missiles to Moscow. They are utilized in wave attacks in the war against Ukraine.
The Kremlin, on the another hand, faces considerable problems in the area of microprocessors and laboratory equipment. The narrow throats besides stem from Western sanctions that restrict access to crucial components. Although Russia is trying to fill these gaps with spare parts from China and another countries, these products are frequently of inferior quality. This slows not only industrial production but besides technological improvement in the country.
Vladimir Aleksandrov/Anadol Agency via Getty Images / PAPTank from russian times, Kursk, Russia, 9 September 2024.
“Putin virtually felt the taste of blood”
According to Maj-Gen Freuding NATO is already able to counter the Russian attack. — However, it is much more crucial to make strength within an alliance that is needed for credible deterrence and thus prevention of war," he states.
For Strack-Zimmermann, this deterrence depends on the endurance of Ukraine. “Putin virtually smelled blood,” said the defence expert. An extension of military aid to the country under attack is necessary.
“ She said.
CDU politician Kiesewetter believes that Germany has an work to invest more in its own security, with an increase in the capacity of the armed forces to start at 3% of GDP. Military analyst Lange summarizes the problems of the Bundeswehr as follows: “We do not have our own ground-based distance weapons beyond the scope of rocket artillery, we are not good adequate in electronic warfare, the size and cost-effectiveness of our air defenses are not adequate, and we inactive deficiency drones.”
This is besides due to bad planning in Germany. peculiar funds were mainly invested in old arms projects "which will not contribute to operational readiness from now to 2029".
