On Sunday, June 1, Poles and Poles will elect a fresh president. The polls indicate that the scales of triumph will tip to 9:00 p.m., so until the hr erstwhile the polling stations close and silence ceases to apply.
President Trzaskowski or president Nawrocki? Electoral turnout will decide
However, it is very possible that whoever won the presidential election – Karol Nawrocki or Rafał Trzaskowski – will not know until Monday. The exit poll on specified a balanced race is not accurate adequate to give the final answer.
So who will replace Andrzej Duda at the Presidential Palace? “The decisive component will be election turnout,” says Anna Trząsalska, an expert in social investigation from the Opina24 studio, who hosted in the short and on the Temat.
Let us remind that in the first circular of the presidential election held on 18 May, attendance was 67.31%. This is simply a evidence level in Polish past after 1989. However, as Trzesalska explains, specified attendance, if repeated in the second round, favours a circumstantial candidate.
At what turnout will Nawrocki win and at which turnout Trzaskowski?
The turnout of 67.31 percent is of course the average for the full Poland. The lowest voter turnout was noted in Opole. Expert from Opinia 24 states that it is impossible to foretell with absolute certainty how attendance will affect the result of the election, but on the basis of the erstwhile correctness any thesis can be made.
– The higher attendance, the better for Rafał Trzaskowski, due to the fact that in the second circular he has more possible among those who have not voted so far. So the more we increase attendance compared to attendance from the first round, the better the chance that the election will win Rafał Trzaskowski – explains the expert.
As a level of attendance, which would be very conducive to Trzaskowski, it indicates 74% or more, so much as during the 2023 parliamentary elections. “These are estimates,” says Anna Trzesalska. The expert adds that it is besides crucial which groups of voters will vote in crowds.
In turn, if attendance in the second circular stops at the level of attendance from the first circular (67.31%) or will be smaller, Karol Nawrocki will most likely decision into the Presidential Palace. “When we reduce attendance more towards this first round, Karol Nawrocki has a better chance,” emphasizes the investigator from the Studio of Opinion24.