The slide, which is little than 100 kilometres long, is 1 of the most delicate NATO sites in Europe. In the event of possible Russian aggression, its business could effectively cut off the Baltic countries – Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia – from the remainder of the alliance.
"From Russia's perspective, a land connection with Kaliningrad would be a strategical profit," he notes.
These concerns are shared by René Obermann, erstwhile president of Deutsche Telekom and presently associate of the Airbus Supervisory Board. In an interview with the journal, he warns: "It does not seem logical to wait for Europe to be full capable of deterrence."
According to him, the current ambiguity of the United States may be “encouraged” for the Kremlin to act, including the “attachment of a militaryly crucial exclave of Kaliningrad by the alleged Slag Pass”.
A rerun of history? “Fall 2025” maneuvers rise concerns
Experts see dangerous similarities to the situation before the invasion of Ukraine. In 2021, Russia conducted extended military exercises at the border with Ukraine, which proved prelude to a full-scale attack in February 2022. Today, past can happen again.
Sabine Adler, an expert on Russia, warns: "There is simply a real hazard of war," she warns in the words quoted by "Handelsblatt". In her opinion, the threat could materialize in the fall of 2025.
The reason is planned for September for the “Zapad” maneuvers to take place, among others, in Belarus, close the Suwałki Pass. It was from the territory of Belarus in 2022 that any Russian troops hit Kiev, utilizing a favourable geographical location.
Lithuania protected by the Bundeswehr
The slide and safety of the Baltic countries is NATO's precedence today. As the ‘Handelsblatt’ recalls, 1 of the key elements of this strategy is the Bundeswehr brigade stationed in Lithuania. Its presence is part of the constant deterrence and building of the region's defence resistance.
The survey of the discipline and Politics Foundation (SWP), as quoted by the journal, shows that "the effective protection of Lithuania has a affirmative impact on the threat situation of the another 2 Baltic States, the robustness of the Suwalski Corridor and, in general, the east Baltic Sea region and the north-east flank of NATO".
Mines back to the front?
The increasing hazard of conflict causes Poland and the Baltic countries to consider withdrawing from the alleged Ottawa Convention, prohibiting the usage of anti-personnel mines. Their re-use would aid hinder possible aggression by Russia and Belarus.
The mines can play a key function in slowing down a possible land attack by a slide or from the direction of Kaliningrad. Although this subject is controversial internationally, the governments of the countries of the region argue that, in view of the real threat to national security, the existing commitments should be reviewed.
Russia is already investigating NATO's resilience
Russia's not waiting. There have been incidents of GPS interference in the Baltic Sea region for months, affecting both civilian aviation and shipping. This is part of the alleged hybrid action to destabilise the region and test the readiness of NATO states.
In December 2023, Norwegian and Finnish media reported intense GPS interference in the area of northern Finland and Norway. According to Bloomberg's report, “distortions had a origin in Russian installations in the Murmanian Oblast” (Bloomberg, 14.12.2023). In a akin way Moscow can besides operate in the Suwałki gulf area.
Trying to destabilize by "protection of minorities"?
"Handelsblatt" besides warns against another possible script that Moscow can usage as an excuse for aggression – the alleged protection of Russian-speaking citizens in the Baltic States. This kind of rhetoric was already utilized by the Kremlin, including in justifying the invasion of Ukraine in 2014 (Krim) and in 2022.
About 320 000 and 470 000 Russian-speaking people live in Estonia and Latvia respectively. any of them have citizenship Russian or the position of ‘non-citizens’. In the expert opinion, Moscow can usage this fact to make a "casus belli", a pretext for military intervention.
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Andrzej Duda in Lithuania. "Suwałski Pass is peculiarly threatened"
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Russian troops are getting closer to NATO borders. Moscow wants to control the slide?
