Press Review No 140

Netanyahu disbands the war cabinet and threatens to invade northern Lebanon

There have been crucial political changes in Israel. First, on 9 June, Benny Ganc (one of the opposition politicians) left the war cabinet, which was formed respective days after the October Hamas attack on Israel. Ganc stated that his decision was a form of protest against the policies of Prime Minister Netanjah, who, in his opinion, acted to prolong the war with Hamas and hinder negotiations on the return of hostages to Israel. Along with Gance, the war cabinet besides left Gadi Eisenkot (party mate Ganca, and at the same time – like Ganc – erstwhile IDF chief of staff).

Ultra-right coalitions of the Prime Minister (Ben Gvir and Smotricz), tried to exploit the situation and demanded entry into the war cabinet in place of Ganca and Eisenkota. Netanyahu not only refused them, but besides disbanded the war room.

From now on, the war in Gaza will be decided by Netanyahu himself. At the same time – sources close to the Prime Minister – say that in emergency situations, ad hoc, he will consult with his closest colleagues. The opposition is outraged and accuses the Prime Minister of attempting to monopolize power to sabotage the trial in which he is accused of corruption.

The opposition is right. Shortly after the Hamas attack on Israel, Netanjahu had terrible ratings. The polls showed that if there was an early election, his Likud would lose the election in a terrible way. Moreover, at 1 point in March 2024, over 40% of respondents declared their willingness to vote for Benny Ganc's opposition party. Since then, Likudu and Prime Minister Netanjahu have been slow improving (although current polls inactive point to opposition victory). Netanjahu surely hopes that he will yet win in the Gaza Strip, and then his polls will improve even more.

Thinking Netanyahu, however, is simply a wishful thinking. The military situation in Gaza is very severe and the final triumph is inactive far away. In addition, Israel's border with Lebanon besides “stands in flames” and Hezbollah presents unprecedented combat capabilities, among others, effectively attacking the Iron Dome. As a result, the IDF began to seriously consider plans to enter Lebanon and carry out a limited military operation against Hezbollah.

Recent statements by the IDF and Prime Minister Netanyahu themselves propose that operations in confederate Lebanon could take place in July/August. The American press says the hazard of invasion is very high, and Israeli plans have triggered an alarm in Washington. The White home is against the operation and doubts its success. Americans effort to mediate between Tel Aviv and Beirut, but Prime Minister Netanyahu not only remains relentless, but besides openly criticizes the Biden administration, which he accused of blocking arms supplies to Israel this week. The Americans anticipate to be able to deescalate the situation on the Israeli-Lebanese border, but, in my opinion, Prime Minister Netanyahu will persist in his plans for invasion (although the success of this operation seems highly questionable, and at best the IDF will repeat the 2006 stalemate).

https://www.aljazeera.com/program/newsfeed/2024/6/17/israels-netanyahu-dissolves-war-cabinet-2?