Poles hide PLN 1.38 trillion. Economists in Shock: This trend overturns forecasts!

Unexpected financial phenomenon surprises the Polish economy in 2025. Although banks systematically reduce the interest rate on investments, Poles accumulate evidence amounts of money in their accounts, while stores evidence a drastic slowdown in sales. This phenomenon, which turns the fundamental principles of economics upside down and amazes even the most experienced analysts of the National Bank of Poland. Why, despite rising wages and falling savings profits, Poles like to keep money in banks alternatively of spending it?

Recent NBP data revealed that the bank accounts of Poles are already in over PLN 1.38 trillion – the sum exceeding the full yearly state budget. This is not only a evidence of all time, but besides a signal of a profound change in consumer and financial behaviour of society. Are we witnessing the birth of a new, unpredictable era in the Polish economy?

Billions in Accounts: Financial Mathematics of the Paradox

The numbers are ruthless and fascinating. In just 12 months, from March 2024 to March 2025, Poles increased their deposits by PLN 124.47 billion. It's an increase by more than 10 percent a year, a pace that makes financial analysts stunned. In March 2025 alone, households had PLN 1,355.43 billion in bank accounts. This means that the average Polish household has more money than always in history, building giant financial pillows.

Even more surprising, at the same time household debt increasing at a slippery pace Only 2.8 percent a year. This signal that Poles learned to live without excessive loans and loans, which is simply a diametric change compared to erstwhile years. Non-financial companies besides exercise caution, their debt only increased by 3 percent. It seems that there is simply a trend across the country of collecting cash alternatively of investing or making commitments.

Stores Shine Hollows, Despite increasing Pensions. Why?

The paradox deepens erstwhile we look at consumption data. Despite evidence savings and increasing real wages (more than 4 percent per year)Poles are buying little and less. Retail sales drastically slowed down, falling from 7.6% to just 4.4% annually. This is simply a drastic slowdown, which concerns both the owners of shops and the full trade industry, which traditionally drove economical growth.

During the period of January-May 2025, sales only increased by 3.5 percent, while the year before that it was 5.5 percent. Poles have more money in accounts, but they spend far less. The expenditure structure is besides changing. Those who choose to store choose circumstantial categories: Sales of furniture, RTV and household appliances increased by almost 19 percent and cars by almost 16 percent. At the same time, sales fell dramatically in the ‘other’ category – by more than 10 percent. This shows that Poles buy what they truly request by giving up impulse purchases. net trade, which is already 8.8 percent of full sales, continues to grow, indicating consumer selectivity and awareness.

Percentage ft Reductions: NBP Fights Savings

The most amazing is the fact that this frenzy of savings continues, even though the Monetary Policy Council (PRP) began a cycle of interest rate cuts in May 2025. The first simplification by half a percent point was expected to theoretically encourage Poles to spend money, making saving little attractive. But the effect was precisely the opposite. The little banks pay for deposits, the more Poles pay for deposits.

In July, the RPP decided to further reduce NBP interest rates by 25 basis points, which further reduces investment profitability. Nevertheless, banks inactive offer attractive interest rate, specified as 5.6 percent in April on the best investments, which for many Poles is adequate reason to rise funds. Banks break in the seams of money, but at the same time face low request for fresh loans, which limits their profits from their credit business. any institutions even introduce additional requirements to reduce the inflow of funds on the best-interested products.

Psychology of Fear: Why do Poles so desperately save?

Economists point to respective key reasons for this extraordinary behaviour of Poles. The first is fresh memory of fresh years full of shocks: COVID-19 pandemic, outbreak of war in Ukraine and galloping inflation. These events taught Poles that 1 must be prepared for the uncertain future. According to a NBP study, households are afraid about future costs of surviving and the inactive unstable geopolitical situation. The war behind the east border makes building a financial safety cushion a precedence number one.

The second reason is inactive high, although falling, interest rates. Despite the reductions, banks inactive offer interest rates that make saving an attractive alternate to spending. The 3rd origin is loans drawn at low rates, which now cost much more. Many Poles gotta put more money aside to pay back, which naturally limits their consumer capacity. It all consists of a image of a society that consciously and deliberately builds financial reserves, putting safety over current consumption.

Economy at the Crossroad: What Next With Polish Consumption?

Growing savings is simply a double-edged sword for the Polish economy. On the 1 hand, they constitute potential backing for future growth. erstwhile Poles yet decide to spend this money, it can drive a spectacular consumer boom. On the another hand, the current simplification in consumption inhibits economical growth. The NBP economists foretell that the dynamics of private consumption in the years 2025-2027 will make at a average level of about 3.2% per year, which is the consequence of Poles' efforts to smooth out consumption over time and build financial reserves.

The key question is: will this trend continue? A associate of the RPP, Przemysław Litwiniuk, provides for further cuts of 1-1.25% by the end of the year, which should theoretically encourage spending. However, for now, the data clearly indicates a preference for financial safety over current consumption. Poles seemingly decided that they would alternatively have money in the bank than spend it on shopping. In a time of geopolitical and economical uncertainty, the collection of savings became for Poles priority number one. Time will tell if this trend will change.