Magda Gałczyńska, Onet: Karol Nawrocki, until late the unknown head of the IPN, as a candidate of the PiS for president, jumped on the podium in an IBRIS trust poll for Onetu. How did this happen?
Prof. Jarosław Flis, sociologist, Jagiellonian University: Nawrocki is no longer a character known only in his niche. Everything in the PiS, all activities revolve around him, the organization of itself little exposes and plays on him. But we'll see how long it lasts. And this support and trust for Nawrocki is not conclusive.
Why? He beat Donald Tusk?
Kaczyński and Morawiecki too. Meanwhile, 1 of the reasons why he was exhibited and accepted by all PiS factions was that he would not take the organization distant from the old leaders. Will there not now appear in their hearts of doubt?
And as far as support is concerned, Nawrocki didn't jump over the level of support for the PiS. The fast accomplishment of the trust of faithful voters, on the another hand, is proof that our parties are increasingly organized. This is simply a bit akin to 2020, erstwhile Rafał Trzaskowski gained much more support than his organization in a very short time. Getting out of the bubble isn't that easy.
PiS invested in Nawrocki. Flis: You can't say it's not working.
Is there any way to read about it? Does Nawrocki have a chance to win, to outrun Trzaskowski?
There's definitely a chance, but there's no certainty. If we look at the last 4 presidential elections, we always had a situation erstwhile there was a clear leader in the polls and the another 1 who was after him. And twice he managed to outrun that leader and win. This is the casus of Andrzej Duda, who defeated Bronisław Komorowski in 2015 and Lech Kaczyński, who won with Donald Tuski in 2005. However, twice the poll leader won this presidential election, although the pursuit was just right: Komorowski in 2010 and Duda in 2020. In both cases, however, it worked that they were government candidates who had clearly more supporters than opponents.
That was the point of the full 2020 Duda campaign. Mateusz Morawiecki became very involved. He drove all over Poland, handed out fire trucks, supported the president with his full life. But in 2023, Morawiecki's government had half as many opponents as supporters. Is his full commitment possible present and would it be beneficial? I have doubts.
Despite this distance from Morawiecki to Nawrocki, which is evident, all rumors about the change of the PiS candidate are greatly exaggerated?
Oh, sure. This is the story that youtubers live most and those media that work according to the principles: “We are making out of the fork and the more hysteria, the better, and next day must be the end of the world.” Not unless something completely unpredictable happens, Nawrocki will stay a candidate for the Law and Justice. They have invested besides much in it and it cannot be said that it has no effect. Like that last assurance poll.
But is the PiS strong adequate to promote Nawrock as he promoted Duda? Money is gone.
In 2015, Duda promoted the Law and Justice – he was the personification of hope to change the organization and its going to the center, softening and rationalization. Can Nawrocks present awaken specified hopes? A completely fresh situation is that so far both changes in power, the 1 in 2007 and the 1 in 2015, were taking place in conditions of unequivocally expanding prosperity. present we have stagnation, which followed a marked decline in the end of the regulation of the Law and Justice.
PAP/BurmaKarol Nawrocki's visit to Zakopane
PiS poll leader. "Some people put the PO on a slippery slope besides easily"
And that brings me to the question about poll, Pollster for “Super Express”Where the PiS could take over with the Confederacy. Plus, PiS returns to the position of leader, ahead of PO. The rulers have a headache?
I'm certain it's a problem for the coalition, a serious warning, but I wouldn't be happy if I were PiS. due to the fact that the poll points to a common government with the Confederacy, which does not should be a natural ally of the Jarosław Kaczyński Party. Plus The Confederacy itself is very upset, there are problems with the exclusion of Grzegorz Braun. possibly it will last how she survived the expulsion of Janusz Korwin-Mikke, or possibly the crisis will deepen. surely the Confederacy is the organization that has had the top hesitation of support in the past fewer years. Moreover, in specified coalition governments, the Law and Justice would no longer have specified freedom as after 2015, erstwhile they ruled in rule alone, due to the fact that the Agreement and Solidarna Polska were pacified with a scare in the form of Kukiza. Then they could push the laws they wanted at night. Now, with the Confederacy, it wouldn't be that easy.
Well, the coalition problem has the PO today.
Oh, she does, and that's why she's down in the polls. I'll be right back to the subject of coalition friction and push, and I'll say 1 thing about this organization poll: I don't see a slope. Our policy is so unchangeable that a fewer percent drop is described as blunt. With specified levelled results, even changing a leader is not unusual. All the opponents would like to see a slippery slope here, but it's just a wave of sea. You can see what the Law and Justice had in the beginnings of their rule. Mijanka in polls is simply a natural thing, coalition and PO are not on wave, but the quotations are rather unchangeable anyway.
What about those coalitions? Another PO headache?
Definitely. THE thing that's most harmful is that they can't get a relation with the coalitions.. So far, they've come up with a simple but dysfunctional arrangement: all the successes go to our leader, Tusk, to make it look like it's his government alone. all success is self-abiding, and the problems should be the coalitions. Only this game is seen by voters and the 3rd Way, and the Left, so they make up their minds that this is not their government. In order to callback their existence, coalition politicians constantly multiply their doubts and reservations about government politics, which all the more affects the voter's view that it is not ours. And there's already the support for the coalition in the polls. Tusk must learn to share his success with the coalitions.
PAP/EP/RONALD WITTEKDonald Tusk in the European Parliament
"Trzaskowski needs an idea, a story. For now, something is breaking up”
Returning to the presidential election, does Trzaskowski present have the same energy he had in 2020? Then, in a short time, he gathered support for 10 million voters. Yeah, he lost, but by a hair. And today?
Currently, the run does not last 4 weeks, only a fewer months has been behind us and the same before us. As a result, something splits. Will that change? Will she have clear ideas? They're missing so far, there's no communicative to carry. Elections are won a small on fear and a small on hope. And this hope must stick to different voters, which is why we request an idea, a communicative that Trzaskowski does not impose at the moment. But, well, it could be with him as it was with Komorowski in 2010. someway he didn't drive the supporters crazy, and the election won. I'm certain the fight will be even.
Will it be, as in Poland, a plebiscite?
Yeah. A plebiscite based on a simple question: do you like this government or the erstwhile one?
"Stanowski as a full-time stand-up would not earn"
Trzaskowski has not 1 due to the fact that all candidates, the fresh rival. Krzysztof Stanowski, writer and owner of the Zero Channel on Youtube, announced that he would run for president of Poland. He announced it in a tape stylized for a message to the nation, where he said he didn't want to be president at all. And he's moving to show the flaws of the another candidates and the scenes of the campaign. Can he mess with that message in this election?
Well, by the way, his alleged message, I gotta say, as a full-time stand-up guy, he wouldn't make any money. A comic start would make sense, but that's the kind of thing you gotta do gracefully. It's like he's missing. However, it will stir a bit in these elections, but there is inactive a full confusion in them. For example, in view of the curiosity of the situation, as many as 3 letters from the last parliamentary election issued 2 candidates.
What do you mean?
PiS officially supports Nawrocki, but among the candidates is Marek Jakubiak, who got into the Sejm from their list. Magdalena Biejat and Adrian Zandberg compete with the Left parliamentarians. Finally, in the Confederate, where the authoritative candidate is Sławomir Mentzen, abruptly Grzegorz Braun announced his start. I wonder if those groups that have only issued 1 candidate, KO and the 3rd Road, will be able to keep their ranks until the end of the campaign. Which is inactive hard for serious and rational treatment of the game.
"The president is not the leader of the nation, but only the handbrake operator. Polish policy in a trap”
Why the game? We're formally choosing the leader of the nation?
Yes, “leader” and “formally”. I'm a small lonely laughing due to the fact that Polish politics are trapped. After all, both major candidates, Trzaskowski and Nawrocki, are not leaders of their political camps, so how can they become “head of state”?
The Polish president does not direct anything, but sits in the passenger seat, with his hand on a handbrake. so parties as their candidates choose the people they now anticipate to win from, but then only that they will know erstwhile to pull for this manual and erstwhile not. It's clear that if we rule, the president doesn't usage the brake, and if they rule, he stops it until it gnashs to make their lives difficult. The function of the head of state brings to this, which is any drama of Polish politics. After all, neither Tusk nor Kaczyński expected engagement and support from president Komorowski or president Duda. Did they substance to them? At most, they hoped that they would not interfere with real decisions.
So what are these choices? We play theatre and choice a puppet?
Not at all! We settle a symbolic fight to fill the handbrake operator. By forcing candidates to pretend to choose the leader of the nation. Seriously – I dream that the election will be won by a candidate who will focus all his strength and capabilities on changing this system. To make this election the last to be specified a twisted game.
