Daria Różańska-Danny: Are we sliding into a black hole?
Andrzej Olechowski: We may not yet slide into a black hole, but the situation is – regardless of the final result of the election – worrying. If you don't mind, let's effort to scale it now.
Let's effort it.
In the first circular of elections 60% of people voted against the government coalition and 70% against the Law and Justice. So a large majority did not want to vote for either the civilian Coalition or the Law and Justice. They most likely didn't find the right political offer.
Enough po-pis duopol?
Yeah, it's quite a few doubles. We besides see this in the world. Something that was the natural foundation of parliamentary democracy, or 2 political parties, is now disappearing. There are wider coalitions everywhere. But without large, unchangeable parties, democracy is weakening, uncertainty and chaos are breaking in.
And the right is getting stronger?
Yes, this is the second reflection – the right-wing sentiment returns. He works for us.
in fact, since SLD's implosion after Leszek Miller premiere. The left didn't rebuild.
The left has small more than 10 percent, and the far right – over 20 percent. Braun overtakes Zandberg.
It's true. My last observation, especially worrying: for the first time since 1968, an openly anti-Semitic politician appeared and won an crucial number of votes.
Even if individual had specified views so far, they were not publically expressed. And Mr Braun has revealed to us an alarmingly large group of citizens ready for anti-Semitic action. If so many right-wing candidates chose Mr. Braun, it was due to the fact that he was openly anti-Semitic.
Brunatny and brutalize Poland?
It's a very disturbing phenomenon. And I think that the full political class should seriously consider this.
Why did the young vote for Mentzen?
And who would they vote for? In all election there is simply a 3rd person, Kukiz, Holovnia, etc.
Antisytemist?
Anti-duopol. "I will not vote for the PO or the PiS", "Neither for Trzaskowski nor for Nawrocki, due to the fact that I have had adequate of them, they led Poland...". "Who will you vote for?" "And I'll choice individual there."
But still, it's shortsighted.
Nobody said the nation was smart. In that mass that voted between the PiS
And the PO, it's only clear that Braun group. Everything else is random company.
Now the game is mostly about Mentzen voters. Is Rafał Trzaskowski
Can you convince them?
The main game is about attendance, but of course about the voters of Mr Mentzen. Among them are the Confederate voters, but besides many who voted due to the fact that they rode a scooter.
Or he's moving off on a scooter.
But I bet you do. Nice, modern, fast talking. "Who else is running?". "And I have no idea, I saw Mentzen online." That's what voters are like. And I assure you, a large group had no thought there were 2 rounds of election. They got a bite today. In discussion
with him Trzaskowski was very good, and about Nawrock Mr. Mentzen says that he is "a pilotless thug". We'll see who they choose.
When we have a turnout of 50%, we can say that voters are well informed.
And how do we turn out at 66.8 percent?
So we have quite a few voters who are driven by emotions and random information.
If you were inactive in the PO, what would you advise Trzaskowski?
I would advise him to show that he truly believes what he says: that the EU is existentially crucial to Poland, that all citizens' rights belong, that hatred is harmful to all society. And so he did.
We saw what happened before the second circular of elections in Romania. A imagination of a country that is not headed by a pro-European president is simply a dream. People got scared.
We saw it in 2023. Then – especially young people – they got scared.
And they knew that if he continued to regulation the Law and Justice, then the grave, we'd be buried in the mud. And they went to a mass vote.
Isn't it that we've all forgotten about how the PiS dismantled the state? Young people who so eagerly vote for the right may not have
That's the idea.
This is where we would gotta go to measure the actions of the Donald Tusk government.
The last poll shows that more than half of Poles do not appreciate the actions of the Civic Coalition. Investigative commissions that are a spectacle, laws that they do not pass.
Well, I'm afraid so.
Is Trzaskowski besides acquainted with Tusk?
This emphasis in the debates that Trzaskowski is Deputy Tusk is addressed to the PiS electorate. due to the fact that he'll love the brush stick if the president says so. On the another hand, he truly hates anyone who is from the PO. If you say he's from the PO, then the PiS supporters automatically vote against.
There is discontent of Poles with these governments. due to the fact that that's not what was promised. The situation in Poland was to change. The shifting of Poland in bad directions has been stopped, but it does not retreat.
Expensive butter, advanced prices of electricity, basic products. People blame the Tusk government.
Prices are rising, but not as fast as the erstwhile power. But KO doesn't account for the PiS,
And it was highly exhibited. I didn't like it from the beginning.
The theatre commissions didn't do anything. We saw the impunity of those who did not trust on them. We have seen how, in the event of problems with the law, the associate is going abroad. So people say, "They can't handle it."
Donald Tusk announced the reconstruction of the government 10 days before the second circular of elections. Is that an act of desperation?
I don't think so. In this election, any people got better.
Who?
The hoard was pouring, Mrs. Biejat was pouring. The PO was disciplined and did not "drive" in coalitions. And they did.
Is this the time to draw consequences?
There are 2 situations. If Trzaskowski wins, the opposition is depressed. And if he loses, what does Tusk do? All the more reason to mobilize the government, introduce iron discipline to regain the ground before parliamentary elections.
How could Mrs. Biejat go to the president and ask for a veto bill that her government approved? If I were a Citizen Coalition Senator, I'd immediately file a motion to dismiss her as Deputy Marshal of the Senate. Tusk will gotta draw the consequences from what didn't go down. The government is undoubtedly besides big.
Tusk declared he wanted to reduce the number of ministers.
Explain to PSL, 3rd Road, that they'll gotta hand over a number of vice ministers.
In general, the suicidal thought was that all coalitionist would have his deputy minister in all department.
These are not a small tense moves of Tusk in the form of Komorowski referendum
2015?
Not at all. Pay attention to the polls, they're talking about a draw right now. Apart from the iron electorates of PiS and Confederacy, there is only 1 another group not available to Trzaskovsky – those supporting Braun.
But there are quite a few people in the another groups who – for another than perfect reasons – can vote for Trzaskowski and now make choices.
Therefore, Trzaskovsky's participation in debates with Nawrock and Mentzen was so important. We saw in them a sincere, sympathetic, comprehensively experienced politician.
How do you justice the full Trzask campaign? It was said unofficially that Tusk was angry and wanted to trade the staff.
Don't ask me, I ran 3 campaigns and I lost them all.
You have experience.
I'm the last man to talk about this. I know Trzaskowski was driving around on any pipers. But I didn't follow it closely. I've only seen him work all day. And at any point, he was working besides hard. This is the cardinal mistake of the staff, which should supply its candidate with an adequate dose of sleep and relaxation. Let's not overdo it, but we request a dream.
How would you like to make an assessment of the Trzask run on a scale of 1 to five?
I'd give him more credit than Nawrock. As far as I'm concerned, both candidates' campaigns seemed to be boring to me. This is most likely the reason why both of them did not gain the support their parties enjoy.
But ultimately, a man out of nowhere, with a questionable past, achieved a consequence on a akin level to an experienced politician.
This is an identity issue. It's best compared to fans or kibboli. "How is it possible that you like this goalkeeper, he's a dz***czar, an alcoholic, he's playing goals like a hound, and you inactive praise him?" "It's all true, but he's ours."
Same with Nawrock. The wife says to her husband, "Kaziu, who are we voting for?"
"Who's there from the PiS?" he asks. He hears, "Nawrocks." "It's for Nawrocki," he replies.
Imagine that Nawrocki becomes president, what would his Poland be like?
For all we know, it's not a Duda. He's a dangerous guy. Given his past: an athlete, but in the field of murder. Clearly he is simply a man for whom strength is important. And the people who know him say he's dangerous.
If Nawrocki becomes president, will we have an early election in the fall?
They are not possible under the Constitution. But if you treat the constitution like the PiS, or like old pants that can be extended to all sides, then early elections can happen. For me, it would be specified a shocking script that I can't truly imagine.
Let us besides presume another – purely hypothetical – scenario: Nawrocki wins, veto most of the laws, does not cooperate with the Tusk government, embarrasses us abroad. How does this affect the 2027 elections?
Good question. The anticipation of own presidential initiatives should be added to this.
And pardon. Apparently, Nawrocki was already tempted to pardon Braun for his support in the second circular of elections.
Returning to the sentiment of 2023, this social reaction should be similar.
But we have an example of the United States. Trump's first word was believed to have been an aberration, and it turns out that the aberration was Biden's term. I cannot justice how strong the impact of what happened in the United States on public opinion in Poland is.
Is Nawrocks over? We saw him break off the CEO's leash.
Mentzen's.
Could be the Law and Justice of the Black One, of which, Ornaments. And average politicians in this organization will be marginalized. But I'm not an expert on what's going on in the PiS.
Nawrocki as president would enter into close cooperation with the Confederacy, and we're about to have Prime Minister Mentzen?
If the top of the PiS were taken by people like Black, it is possible that Mentzen will become Prime Minister.
Nawrocki had already talked about his possible first abroad visit to Washington, D.C., but with his landing in the Vatican. Does that mean that if he became president, we'd only have a good relation with Trump and Orban?
This landing in the Vatican may not be successful: the Augustian and the erstwhile boxer may fail. This possible visit to the States could be a success. But what could be the result?
Either way, the United States will retreat troops from Europe – including Poland.
And the trade with them is small. A visit to Brussels would undoubtedly be full of tension, unkind gestures and on the 1 hand and on the other.
There is simply a war going on abroad, Nawrocki confirmed with Mentzen that he does not want Ukraine to join the EU or NATO. specified a president would be a warrant of safety for Poland?
The PiS considers EU membership to be harmful to Poland. It cannot lead us out of the EU due to the fact that society is now pro-EU. However, the government would have done well if it had introduced any kind of safety to guarantee that Poland's removal from the EU was not a simple matter.
However, the geostrategic situation is changing very much. If the United States is to decision out of Europe, leaving only – most likely anti-air protection – Europe must be and more armed, and more capable of self-defense. If so, then for a man who thinks logically and not ideologically, the sum of European countries is much stronger than any country individually.
Are Poles ready for Liberal-Left President? We haven't had 1 so far.
And Kwasniewski?
In his tenure, abortion law was tightened. He wasn't so liberal-left...
Do you think Trzaskowski is?
Yeah, although he turned right for the campaign.
I think he's wearing a patch. Trzaskowski is in specified an indigenous PO stream, which is simply a liberal-conservative party. And it's approaching the centre right, not the centre left. He has an alliance with the left today, but in itself he is not a left party. Pushing these more left-wing ideas into the PO encounters resistance, about which the left is all the time honking.
But Trzaskowski openly talks about liberalisation of abortion, about women's rights,
about the support of all Poles, he participated in rainbow marches.
These are the projects that belong to the European political consensus today. And they were not introduced by the left, but by the parties of the middle. number rights are a recognised right, not a leftist postulate. Just as abortions until week 12 – this is widely accepted in Europe today. And this cannot be called a left-wing postulate either.
Are the dead gonna fall out of Nawrocki's closet?
When you read that Nawrocki was in the setup, that he was tattooed on both sides, then if all of this is true, then what more do you need?
And as a possible president, he will appoint generals, chiefs of police.
The large mistake of my political environment is not to defend the Republic from predators like Nawrocki.
They are not created, defined, forged in a stone career path. And so 1 can fail, just as long as 1 appoints a very advanced position in which he can harm the Republic. But what I can do is how it's now a year and a half of government, and the civilian Coalition hasn't taken this problem.
We experienced a president who took all step of the party's mind. It couldn't be limited by law due to the fact that he would veto it. But it could have been reduced by procedure.
Are we gonna miss president Duda yet?
In my case, it's not possible.
Nawrocks wouldn't be more harmful than Duda?
They say it will. I think everyone feels it under the skin, but quite a few people vote like a Matrix.
