Eye on Russia: Overview of events – August 2025

Written by Ksawery Stawiński, Adam Jankowski

01.08 – A million Indian highly skilled immigrants

The head of the Ural Chamber of manufacture and Commerce, Andrei Adolfovich Besiedin, announced that the residents of the Sverdowski Oblast would host a million immigrants from India by the end of this year. In the capital city of the circuit – Yekaterinburg – a fresh consulate opens, which will aid visitors from confederate Asia find themselves in confederate Ural. They are to be joined by the people of Sri Lanka and North Korea. The full issue is discussed at a advanced level with diplomats from India.

The reason for this mass exodus is simply a dramatic shortage of labour in the Russian Federation. Many workers went to war, and on the another hand Moscow's drive to autarkia requires strengthening production across the country. A peculiar deficiency is felt by the dense industry, which is celebrated for its Ural area and whose interests are represented by the Ural Chamber of manufacture and Commerce. The Indusians are to be peculiarly skilled in metallurgy and device industry, and for this reason Andrei Adolfowicz is betting on specialists from South Asia.

Yekaterinburg itself is to become a large hub for the transport of goods on the fresh Silk Road – a Chinese business initiative – hence the request to supply the region with workers. The same city is to become a dry port which will besides service Russia's expansion into the Arctic Sea.

Indeed, Russia is struggling with a shortage of hands to work. The low supply of workers results in rising inflation, and civilian industries have a problem with average functioning, due to the fact that the state is premiuming the military industry. The Ministry of Labour of the Russian Federation predicts that by 2030 the country will deficiency 3.1 million workers. Importantly, Andrei Adolfovich's position does not coincide with the current law in Russia, which does not let specified a large number of people to enter the country, but the needs of dense manufacture during the war with Ukraine may prove more crucial than keeping the current regulations alive.

11.08 – Bomb in the package

According to the interior safety Agency, “the territory Court in Piotrków Trybunalski [an indictment was filed against Ukrainian citizen Kristina S., who was accused of committing a crime of complicity in bringing the direct danger of explosives explosions.”

The female created a suicide bomb, which she sent in a package utilizing 1 of the courier companies. The transportation warehouse staff spotted a suspicious package and notified the applicable services. The General Prosecutor's Office stated that: "In the event of an explosion, the shipment could have caused crucial harm to critical infrastructure, penetrating delicate fuel tanks, building ceilings or strong steel structures". However, the mark of the attack has not been given.

The female did not act alone – another Ukrainian citizen and 2 Russians were involved. So far, the Polish institutions have not provided information that could indicate that the full action was organized in the Kremlin. However, it should be noted that there is simply a strong likelihood that specified a script is real, as this fits into Moscow's modus operandi operations in Europe. If the Ukrainian female is convicted of attempted sabotage, she will be facing up to 8 years imprisonment. The investigation of 3 another shareholders is ongoing, of which 2 were arrested temporarily for a period of 3 months.

13.08 – Belarusian saboteur

Unfortunately, this was not the only sabotage operation in the country in the last month. According to the ABW, her officers “retained Vitalija S. The man is suspected of acting for abroad intelligence against the Republic of Poland by planning diversion activities and acts of sabotage in the territory of Lublin Voivodeship".

This time, the diversion was oriented to get the information essential to set fire to the retention facility – he took pictures of it, which he then gave to representatives of a abroad interview (maybe the effect of the diversion would be an action akin to the 1 which resulted in the loud burning of the mall in Marywilska in Warsaw).

Belorussian confessed to the charges he had made. A precautionary measurement was applied to him – detention for a period of 3 months. Here, as in the case of Ukraine, he is besides facing up to 8 years in prison. In the case of Vitalij, although his actions for enemy intelligence services are mentioned, the word “Russia” (or “Belarus”) does not fall either. All you gotta do is guess the identity of the payer. However, the modus operandi again directs our attention to the East.

14.08 – mediocre grain harvest reveals the fragility of the economy and the hazard to the Kremlin's influence

This year's crop in Russia, the weakest in many years, goes beyond average weather problems and reveals deeper weaknesses in the war-based economy. For the past decade, the agricultural sector has been a origin of monetary influence for the Kremlin and a abroad policy tool for export of cereals and fertilizers, mostly immune to sanctions, has enabled Russia to keep trade relations with the markets in Africa and the mediate East.

Even in russian times, the country faced shortages and the import of cereals was part of the Western pressure. Only after the dissolution of the Union, as a consequence of reforms and inflows of investment, Russia became 1 of the largest wheat exporters in the planet and a crucial supplier of fertilizers.

In 2025, this communicative was shaken. Droughts in the Rostov region and another weather anomalies have led to drastic crop declines in any areas reaching 60%. Although Stavropol and respective another circuits recorded better results due to favorable rainfall, they failed to full offset losses.

July export data are alarming wheat sales have fallen to unseen levels since 2008, only 2–2.6 million tonnes. In order to stimulate trade, the authorities reduced the export taxation to zero, hoping that the national harvest would be around 135 million tonnes, which would keep exports at 45 million tonnes. Climate problems, however, are only part of the full situation.

Sanctions have reduced access to modern technologies and credit, and expanding production costs undermine the competitiveness of Russian grain. As a result, the story of the unwavering power of agricultural exports begins to crumble. For the Kremlin, it is not only a hazard of failure of economical influence but besides a weakening of the instrument of force on markets dependent on Russian grain.

The authorities are reacting on an ad hoc basis by freeing off export taxes, transferring the burden of production to regions with better climate conditions and announcing financial support to farmers. However, these are short-term measures. Long-term investment in the modernisation of agribusiness, diversification of crops and adaptation to climate change will request to be increased, which is increasingly determined by the success or failure of the harvest.

The crop of 2025 shows that opposition of the Russian agricultural sector to sanctions does not mean resilience to structural weaknesses and utmost weather conditions. If akin problems recur, Russia's position as a unchangeable cereal supplier and player in the global food marketplace may importantly weaken, which will besides affect its geopolitical influence.

21.08 – Russian rocket attack destroys American mill in Ukraine

On the night of 20 to 21 August 2025, Russia carried out 1 of the largest missile-drone attacks in fresh months, firing more than 500 drones and forty missiles towards the western regions of Ukraine.

The targets included Kiev, Lviv, Zaporozhye and Mukachevo, located just 30 kilometres from the Hungarian border, where the American company Flex Ltd. was operating. producing household appliances. The plant, employing respective 100 employees, was straight hit. At the time of the impact, about 600 people took refuge in safe rooms, but respective of them were injured and six required hospitalization.

Flex stated that the plant had no connection with military production, and the company's precedence remains the safety of people and support for the victims. Ukraine's president Volodymyr Zelenski described the attack as a deliberate hit on an American civilian investment and evidence that Moscow was not curious in deescalation.

Similarly, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce in Kiev condemned the incident, calling on Washington to take a stance on aggression against a commercial enterprise. Local authorities reported that 1 individual was killed in Lviv, at least 3 were injured, and dozens of residential and public buildings suffered serious damage. The attack occurred during increased diplomatic talks a week earlier, meetings between president Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in Alaska and the consultation of Zelenski with European leaders in Washington.

However, Russia continued the escalation simultaneously, sending a signal that possible peace negotiations do not have a precedence for it. The Kremlin declared that a gathering with the Ukrainian leader could only take place after being "adequately prepared at the highest level", and the Russian abroad Minister rejected European proposals for peaceful reflection missions.

28.08 – Ukraine hits Russia's key refineries

Ukraine carried out a series of precise attacks on Russian oil infrastructure in August, which paralyzed about 17% of its home processing capacity, equivalent to about 1.1 million barrels of oil per day. The harm affected 10 plants located in various regions, including refineries in Volgograd, Riazana, Samara and Saratov, as well as the export terminal in Ust-Ługa and sections of the Druzba bus, crucial for the transport of oil to Hungary and Slovakia.

The scale of losses affects not only the opportunities to supply the interior market, but besides the revenues that finance the Russian war apparatus, long-established on fuel exports. The consequences are mainly felt by residents of distant regions, including the Far East, the south of the country and Crimea. There were long queues at the stations, and the sale of A-95 gasoline in many places was limited to institutions and businesses.

Prices in the wholesale marketplace have increased by more than 50 % over the year, which for any fuel categories means evidence levels. Authorities are attempting to respond by introducing in July a ban on the export of petrol and expanding the sale of crude oil by an additional 200,000 barrels per day, moving cargo from a partially paralyzed port in Ust-Ługa to terminals in Noworosysk and Primorsk.

The series of strikes shows that Kiev deliberately chooses targets to weaken Kremlin's economical facilities, triggering a fuel crisis that affects both the regular lives of Russians and the state's ability to make gross from oil exports and petroleum products. In a broader perspective, it is part of a strategy aimed at reducing Moscow's military possible and strengthening Ukraine's position in the conflict and internationally.

29.08 The closure of the Polish Consulate in Królewiec

Ministry of abroad Affairs of Russia issued a message – the Polish Consulate in Królewiec will be closed. The decision was motivated by "unwarranted and hostile actions of the Polish side, expressed by a simplification under the imaginary pretext of Russia's consular presence in Poland". Moscow in this message refers to the decision of the Polish Minister of the Ministry of abroad Affairs, which was taken in May this year. It was then decided to close the Russian consulate in Krakow. It was a consequence to the discovery of a conspiracy of diversions acting on behalf of the Kremlin. The consequence of their sabotage was a loud case of arson of a large buying centre in Marywilska, Warsaw (the case was described in the May issue “Oka”).

Thus, the scope of diplomatic posts of Poland in Russia decreased from 3 – embassies in Moscow, consulates in Irkutsk and Królewiec – to only two. The 4th post – the consulate in Petersburg – was besides closed earlier, in January 2025. The decision was the same as the 1 in Królewiec, Poland closed Russia's facility in Poznań due to the fact that the arsonists working under the orders of Kremlin wanted to burn the mill in Wrocław, and as part of the repression the Russians closed the facility in their old capital. The Russians besides had 4 facilities in Poland — an embassy in the capital and consulates in Kraków, Poznań and Gdańsk. presently they have only two: the office in Warsaw and the consulate in Gdańsk. The Polish Embassy in Moscow assures that it will not leave its Polonia unattended. However, there is no uncertainty that the closure of the facility will be an obstacle for the residents of the exclave.