Marcin Palade presented a forecast for the second circular of presidential elections. Sociologist analyzed how candidates' support from the Sunday vote would be spread. In an interview with Bogdan Rymanowski, he pointed out that the difference between the candidates would be around 250 1000 votes and would be smaller than in the clash between Andrzej Duda and Rafał Trzaskowski in 2020.
In his forecast, the sociologist pointed to the flows of electorates of candidates who dropped out after the first circular of elections. He pointed out that the analysis included voters who would not go to the elections and had participated in them so far.
He besides stressed that the analysis does not include a fresh category of voters. They're the ones who didn't vote in the first round, but they'll vote in the second. In 2020 it was 1.2 million fresh voters.
- I'm sorry. According to the declarations we have from fresh polls, about 65% of voters Sławomir Mentzen considering the vote for Karol Nawrocki, about 15 percent for Rafał Trzaskowski - stressed Marcin Palade, sociologist and author of "Marcin Palade Statistically".
Right-wing voters will guarantee victory?
For voters Grzegorz Braun 65% are Nawrock, Trzaskowski and 0%.
VIDEO: Marcin Palade in "Guest of Events" program
https://ipla.pluscdn.pl/dituel/cp/fq/fqd9jud5fídj1jj1jjjwhx5bxfr3.jpg config.poster
- I'm sorry. If we sum up these 2 electorates from the first round, that's over 21%, then should at least give Karol Nawrock a tie with Rafał Trzaskowski, due to the fact that Nawrocki can anticipate no more than 15 percent from voters Simona Holowna - pointed to Palade. According to his forecasts, three-quarters of the Polish leader's electorate 2050 will be awarded to Trzaskowski.
Second circular of the presidential election. Minimum difference between candidates
For electorates Adrian Zandberg and Magdalena Biejat Palade believes that the Nawrocks will attract no more than 10 percent of the voters of each of them. Trzaskowski would gain 70 percent from the leader Together and 85 percent from Biejat.
On the another hand, 50 percent of the remaining candidates would besides be awarded to Nawrock. In this group 33 percent would go to Trzaskowski.
SEE: "Electoral consequence problem for coalition". erstwhile president has advice for Trzaskowski
Sumari, in the sociologist's forecast Karol Nawrocki holds 9,237 million votes. Rafał Trzaskowski 8.985 million. That's the result. Navrock victoryfrom 50.7% to 49.3%.
Palade emphasizes that this is little than the difference between Andrzej Duda and Rafał Trzaskowski in 2020.
Previous episodes "Guest of Events" program You can see Here..
https://ipla.pluscdn.pl/dituel/cp/fh/fhs6ah1v28pgsqx6wtfvtcztrseosbuy.jpg config.poster 
