Presidential election 2025. Turnout can disappoint
Turnout at 12 p.m. was 20.28 percent, said the State Election Commission at the press conference.
Taking the average out of the final election, usually by 12 o'clock, about 1/3 of voters vote, followed by nearly half in 12-17 hours, and remaining in the evening until closing.
Therefore, on the basis of current PKW data from 12 p.m., we can anticipate a final attendance of around 62%. The consequence above this value will surely be a very affirmative surprise
Turnout in the election. Comparison to erstwhile years
A affirmative signal is surely the increase in attendance compared to last year's local elections and the European Parliament. However, the bar for today's vote is set much higher. The key values of the first circular of the 2020 elections are here. At that time, 24.1% of the eligible people voted by 12. present it is almost 4 percent points less.
As regards comparison to the record-breaking turnout of the parliamentary elections in 2023, the consequence at 12 could besides seem disappointing. By 12 p.m., 22.6 percent of the eligible people had voted. To 21, this value increased to evidence 74.4%. However, specified daytime voting distribution would be a very optimistic scenario.
Presidential election 2025. Mobilisation in the East
The latest PKW data besides shows very large differences in attendance at regional level. The highest attendance by 12 o'clock was recorded in the counties of Małopolska and Podlasie – in the territory of Nowo Sądecki even 28.4%. advanced attendance is besides seen in the centre of the country, especially in the vicinity of Skierniewice and Białobrzeg. – about 24 percent.
Definitely worse in the west. As usual, the worst in this respect is Opolskie voivodships - any municipalities have attendance below 15 percent. mediocre results can besides be seen in Wielkopolska, especially in the area of Leszno. Low attendance is besides in the West Pomeranian province.
Turnout in the election. Towns behind
The large East-West differences are mainly due to large declines in attendance in the western regions, both in relation to the first circular in 2020 and the parliamentary elections in 2023. The largest drop is seen in the Lower Silesian and Lubuskie voivodships – over 5 percent points little than in 2020. It's besides bad for Mazovia.
However, the worst on the map of districts are cities and their agglomerations. In cities specified as Warsaw, Poznań or Wrocław attendance decreased by over 7 percent points compared to 2020. A very large decrease is besides seen in Sopot – minus 8 percent points, or in Opole – minus 9.3 percent points.
This is besides seen in attendance data erstwhile it comes to the division into urban and agrarian municipalities. In the erstwhile elections, villages always strayed from cities erstwhile it came to mobilization. This advantage remains, but present is much less.
Turnout in the election. October in May
It is besides worth remembering about the weather, which may importantly affect the distribution of votes during the day. In many parts of the country, temperatures will not exceed 10 degrees today, and rolling over Poland than will bring intense rainfall. It will rain most present in Wielkopolska, especially around Poznań. Wet will besides be in the south.
Five years ago, the weather was no concern — on June 28, 2020, the majority of the country in the morning was about 20 degrees, in the afternoon heat.
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