"The planet under tension" is an first series of talks created by an apprentice of the Institute of fresh Europe. Its goal is to describe the most crucial challenges of the modern planet – from wars and crises to information safety and geopolitical change. The publications are created on the basis of discussions with people active in global affairs – analysts, diplomats, researchers and practitioners – in order to combine reliability with accessibility.
Society, army, power. Ukraine in the 3rd year of war.
Tension is seen especially in Ukraine – a country that has been operating in the realities of full-scale war for over 3 years. How does this long-term conflict affect society? What happens to morale soldiers? How is trust in the state shaped? Has Volodymyr Zelenski lost his support yet? What's behind the NABU and SAP scandal? And what should be the most crucial advice for the future?
Bartłomiej Wypartowicz answers these questions – an analyst and elder editor of the Defence24 portal, co-author of the book "Between Bug and Truth", devoted to Poland's actions towards Ukraine and Belarus.
Veronica Barankevy: From today's perspective, how do you measure the impact of war on Ukrainian society? Are we inactive talking about a community in a state of mobilisation, or are we increasingly experiencing fatigue and frustration?
Bartłomiej Wypartowicz: Partly, any kind of deviation is beginning to appear. During these first months of full-scale invasion, society was actually united in the fight for its independence, in the fight against the Russian invader – with an enemy hated for years. War fatigue signals are now increasingly emerging. Interestingly, polls very frequently show that the farther you are from the front, the easier you are to endure this war. The largest percent of people who, erstwhile asked “are you able to last the war?” answer yes, lives in the west of Ukraine. The further east – the little this percent is.
So you can see the fatigue, but you can barely be surprised. The state is being destroyed. The cities into which the Russians enter, which are attacked by them, are virtually leveled to the ground. all another individual in Ukraine present has a friend, father, brother – individual who died as a consequence of Russian aggression.
So part of society would like the war to end as shortly as possible. But I fishy that an equally large part – even in the event of a ceasefire – will not want to let the Russians go. That's what I'm afraid of.
VB: You mentioned that the farther west you go, the little tired the war is. What about Ukrainians abroad?
BW: Ukrainians abroad are not tired at all. If we look at how they support defensive action, how they support the fight, it is easy to talk about fighting the invader, sitting in Poland, Germany or the United States. It's just that it's all words.
Such people usually, even in terms of maintaining Ukrainian culture or any social activity here, in Europe, in the West, frequently have nothing to do with it. Of course, there are smaller or larger associations that are active, but alternatively a number of those who are here.
And it's worth remembering that there are all kinds of individuals that give you the chance to show your courage, your heroism, and that you want to fight for Ukraine. For example, there is simply a abroad Legion in Poland. but there's a very low admission rate.
VB: So from your reflection – the Ukrainian diaspora abroad is alternatively emotionally separated today, does it inactive feel a community and a bond resulting from the war?
BW: No, I wouldn't say she's emotionally separated. Emotionally, this commitment is very strong. Very frequently it is the Ukrainians surviving in the West who are the most militant. but that it's emotional attachment, it's a militant attitude – it frequently ends with emotions, alternatively than going into actions.
VB: In the context of fresh protests and the adoption of Act 12414 [editative note – On July 22, 2025, 263 of the ultimate Council of Ukraine elected Law 12414, which subjugated NABU and SAP of the General Prosecutor's Office, taking their independency and causing a wide wave of social protests]– how do you measure the effectiveness of this social mobilization?
BW: First, we request to say a fewer words about the law itself, which limited the possibilities of anti-corruption organizations – among others, NAB and SAB. After all, these institutions were created after 2014, in agreement with the European Union and the United States, precisely to fight corruption and money laundering. This was 1 of the key reforms on the way to possible Ukraine membership of the EU.
Meanwhile, in just 12 hours, a bill was adopted that de facto destroyed what was being built for 10 years. The NAB and SAB were taken distant from real operational possibilities – the anticipation of initiating or conducting investigations could be blocked by the lawyer General, who, nevertheless he looks, is straight related to the authority. This practically deprived these institutions of independency and the ability to see the ruling hands.
The fact that the law was yet amended was due to respective factors. I think that president Zelenski and the organization of the Servant of the Nation simply did not foretell how strong opposition – both social and global – would be. It seems to me that there was an thought to do this quickly, during the war, and to justify the bill by fighting Russian spies – that thanks to it they could be eliminated from public life. Only if the Russian diversions are caught in SBU, no 1 shuts down the full service. The same is actual of another institutions. Therefore, I find it hard to believe that the intentions were only "safe". possibly individual was afraid of something. I don't want to say it with full responsibility, but it's a possibility.
Ultimately, it was thanks to social opposition and protests in many cities that changed. Even at the minute erstwhile president Zelenski had already announced that he would bring forward a bill to reconstruct NAB and SAB their competence, the protests continued. It may have been that Zelenski feared a script specified as another Majdan or the failure of support from the West – due to the fact that the pressures were truly strong, both from the European Union and the global Monetary Fund.
I think that the first rulers wanted to "pull" it quietly – without much publicity, hoping that society would be besides busy with the war to react. But it turned out differently.
VB: Do you think that specified protests can be a model for another countries – for example for the Belarusians or for the Russians? Does the Ukrainian example show that civic force truly works?
BW: That's a very hard question. First of all, due to the fact that Ukraine is simply a democratic state, as if not to look at it. Protests presently taking place in Ukraine, where society is so strong and has a real impact on power, are a completely different case than protests in Russia or Belarus.
I fishy that protests of this scale, if they had taken place in Minsk, would have been pacified in a fewer moments. And no 1 would look at what the global opinion or the European Union says.
Ukraine has clearly set itself the goal – it wants to be part of Western structures. And in a nutshell, this war came to any degree from these aspirations. Meanwhile, Belarus and Russia have no specified aspirations. So if there were akin protests there, in consequence to specified a bill – the authorities would have no reason not to drive them away. And they most likely would.
And society itself is not strong adequate to force any change – due to the fact that that is the system.
VB: After that bill that restored the independency of NABU and SAP, The West and Ukrainian society will treat the case as closed? But will this situation leave a lasting mark?
BW: No, it surely doesn't close the case. Not in the eyes of the West, nor, frankly, in my own. The Ukrainian authorities have lost quite a few trust. due to the fact that how do we know something like this won't happen in the future? And then possibly the power won't bend anymore.
I besides think that Ukrainian society – although already looking so closely at politicians' hands – will now do it even more intensively. It is precisely to guarantee that a akin bill is not passed again at night or in 12 hours, as it is now.
Even more so, any deputies then explained that they did not know what they were voting on. They were to hear that “it’s only a method project”, that “you don’t gotta read”, and that “as you are in favour of Zelenski, you simply vote in favour.” They explained themselves anyway.
In my opinion, if that is the case, it is totally absurd. And if they didn't, and yet they effort to defend themselves, that means they want to escape work for a terrible decision. Not only to its own society, but besides to a full democratic Europe that respects the regulation of law.
VB: After all, even 1 of the deputies – Alexi Honcharenko wrote on his Telegram that the draft Act No. 12414 was published virtually 5 minutes before the Council meeting. He demanded that they give the deputies at least 2 hours to read the document, due to the fact that the comparative table had as many as 45 pages. But no 1 gave that time.
BW: Yes, yes, exactly. It was clear that it was only 1 thing – to vote quickly. However, as shortly as she left the ultimate Council, she was signed very rapidly by president Zelenski, even though protests were already ongoing. Those protests didn't scare him.
And he may not have signed that bill. He had a choice. due to the fact that what situation did we end up in? First, 1 bill was changed to another, then the another to the 3rd – and it took so many changes to keep things the same. That sounds completely illogical.
Figure 1. Chronology of key changes in the position of NABU AND SAP (2015-2025)
Source: Own improvement under Presidential Regulation No 217/2015: https://www.president.gov.ua/documents/2172015-18864, the ultimate Council of Ukraine: https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/main
VB: In 1 of your own articles on Defence24 portal You wrote that this might be Volodymyr Zelenski's most serious crisis. From today's perspective, how do you measure the level of public assurance in him? And can his image as a leader in the fight against corruption inactive be saved?
BW: This is simply a hard question, especially erstwhile it comes to this image of a “corruptor”. It happens very frequently that politicians – not only in Ukraine, but besides in Russia or Belarus – come to power with this slogan. That was the case with Alexander Lukashenko. But just due to the fact that individual starts with that image doesn't mean they can't lose it.
In my opinion, Zelenski has already lost quite a few this image. Especially since he spoke straight in the election campaign: if you have any suspicions about me or my people – call NABU or SAP. And then he tried to take distant independency and the ability to conduct investigations independently – without political interference. Question is, what made him do it?
That's the point. It's hard to tell what the real reason was. possibly even the Ukrainians themselves do not know.
And as far as social trust is concerned, the polls show that it is systematically falling. The Kiev Institute of Sociology shows this very clearly. Support for Zelenski temporarily increased as he was attacked by Donald Trump – then the Ukrainians wanted to show that he was their president and that they were supporting him. But then the situation calmed down and the downward trend returned.
Nevertheless, Zelenski is inactive at the forefront of social trust rankings – only that it is no longer 90% as it utilized to be, but alternatively 50% of the area.
Interestingly, he is followed by the military: Valeria Załużny, the current ambassador to the UK, and Kyrylo Budanow, head of military intelligence. And if there is always solstice or fresh elections, it is rather possible that the military will play key roles in the state.
Figure 2. Level of assurance in the president of Ukraine
Source: Київський міжнародний інститут (KIIS), офіційний сайт: https://kiis.com.ua/?lang=ukr&cat=reports&id=1537&page=1 (accessed: 30.07.2025).
Figure 3. Level of trust in Zelenski, Deserved and Budanov (June 2025)
Source: Own improvement based on study data Барометр громадських, червень 2025, SOCIS / Янус.
VB: You gave me another question. In the military context, there is increasingly talk of morale falling among soldiers. What do you think is the main reason for this phenomenon?
BW: It is hard to have advanced morale erstwhile you service on the front for 2 years, hoping you will yet be relaxed and demobilized – and 2 days before the deadline, the President, along with the ultimate Council, adopts a bill that suspends the anticipation of leaving the front line. A law is introduced whereby only the President, by a peculiar decree, may grant approval to resign from service. For many soldiers it was a shock and a large disappointment. Many of them simply hoped to return home. They were physically and mentally exhausted.
There is besides a problem of mobilization – and demographics. Ukraine has an expanding problem with the number of people to serve, especially in infantry. We hear about situations in which experienced drone operators, who would be more useful in their activities with BSP, are directed to infantry – due to the fact that there are no people.
It's a large problem for the commanders too. due to the fact that if soldiers are poorly trained, frequently aged, sometimes with alcohol problems – it is hard to talk about effective combat. But there are inactive shortages of ammunition and equipment. It is, partially complemented by the alleged Czech initiative, but the future is inactive uncertain.
Especially since the president of the United States is again Donald Trump. And soldiers at the front truly can't be certain that the promised aid will come. After all, even part of the support granted for Biden was later suspended or redirected. If there is no clear message from Washington: "We are with you, we support you, you can number on us" – this uncertainty will increasingly undermine morale.
And finally, the last element. If you are a soldier who is risking his life, fighting for Ukraine's independence, its way to the European Union and NATO – and abruptly you see that your power signs a bill that can undermine this course, it is hard not to feel frustration. It hits morale very directly.
VB: How did the war affect the Ukrainian political elite? Have you noticed any generational change or fresh environments that are starting to have a real impact on public affairs? Like NGOs or local leaders?
BW: Surely, after the outbreak of the full-scale war, the importance of the Azov Movement grew very strongly. And everything points to the fact that if elections were to take place today, according to available polls and analyses, the Azowski Movement would have a real chance to join the ultimate Council. It can be said that Andrij Biłecki, the leader of this environment, gained a lot in any circles. It is an environment that gained in the war politically – but besides paid a immense price. It lost people, lost blood – for example during Mariupola's defence, where the Azov Regiment was in an highly hard situation. Most soldiers were then taken into Russian captivity.
As far as social organisations are concerned, there have indeed been many fresh initiatives, NGOs, expert groups in Ukraine. There are plenty today. Only the question of how they have a real impact – not only on Ukraine's interior life, but besides on global policy.
I frequently see representatives of these organisations at conferences, especially abroad ones, trying to scope Western decision-makers, presenting projects, talking about the situation in the country. But unfortunately, it's not always with a broad echo. So, yeah, there's more of these entities, but do they have more force to beat? hard to say.
Figure 4. Andrij Biłecki – key facts and achievements of the commander of the 3rd Army Corps
Source: authoritative website of the 3rd Independent Assault Brigade
VB: And yet – if you were to give 1 advice or a warning: what is most crucial for Ukraine today, not only to survive, but to leave this war stronger? What would that be?
BW: Don't argue with your neighbors. due to the fact that it truly depends on the neighbors. If you have a country next to you that is your ally and your partner – effort to live in peace with it, not in conflict. The arguments don't lead anywhere. And consent can not only aid the present, but besides build lasting relationships for the future – and be the foundation of reconstruction after the war.
In the next conversation in the series “World under tension” we will talk to Dr. Dariusz Materniak about the function of the National defender and the transformation of the Azov Regiment. We'll see how Ukraine builds a fresh hybrid defence model.
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