A fewer weeks ago in the UK, the media bomb became the opinion of opposition leader of the Labour Party, Keira Starmer, that in 2030, which is only 7 years from now, per capita income in Poland will be higher than in the UK.
Such a forecast is shocking adequate for him to say: “I cannot accept it. Deal with the fact that Poland will shortly be richer than Britain."
The people of large Britain have become accustomed to the fact that Poland has always been a mediocre country for centuries, compared to the United Kingdom. Hence, such, in addition to being rather distant, must seem shocking to them.
It is, of course, about the level of national income calculated by purchasing power parity (PPP), which is, however, a good standard of surviving in a given country. It was calculated on the basis of a comparison of the prices of the established basket of goods and services in the countries concerned.
From what did Mr. Starmer draw specified forecasts? For them to be fulfilled, it is adequate that for the next 8 years, by 2030, the economy of both countries, i.e. Poland and large Britain, will make at the same rate as for the last 8 years.
Let's look at the numbers. In 2013, according to planet Bank data, Poland's national income was $25,490 per person. At that time in Britain it was $43,192.
In 2021, these numbers were 34,916, and 44,993 respectively.
It follows that during this time the income per individual in Poland increased by as much as $9.426, while in Britain only by 1801. Thus, in this eight-year comparative period, the income in Poland increased by as much as 37 percent, erstwhile in the UK only by 4.2 percent.
Using a simple extrapolation, if this rate of growth were preserved, in 2030 we will have 47,835, and 46,883 for Britain, which is almost a 1000 dollars less.
Thus, the claim that Poland can, as early as 2030, surpass Britain at purchasing power level per individual is highly justified.
But not only the UK can relate to a similar, optimistic script for Poland.
The calculations that I carried out utilizing the same method, which Starmer gave me, indicate that Poland can besides outrun Spain, Italy and even France in 2030.
The GDP per individual in 2030 for these countries, calculated, assuming that their growth rate, over the next 8 years, would be the same as in the erstwhile long period, is 40 642 for Spain, 43 648 for Italy, and 47 288.
We see that Poland, with the projected indicator 47,835, will outpace all these countries.
In commenting on this race that is already underway, it can be said that erstwhile we go ahead of these 4 large countries, we will get closer to the main goal of our large tried friend and ally, or Germany. Here, assuming the continuation of the trend over the last 8 years, we will not be ahead of the Germans yet, but they will feel our breath on their necks. As before, the estimation shows that Germany can scope GDP (PPP) in 2030 at 56,637.
Treatments, for this kind of promotion of Poland in the ranking of income per capita, seem to be the main goal for the boss of the current ruling party. I callback Jarosław Kaczyński's speeches at the 2019 electoral conventions. To find out about the stated goals and the program of his party, I watched respective specified speeches. The main warp of all of them and the basis of the action programme were the procedures for equalising the income of Polish residents in relations with another EU countries. I had the impression that another goals, in relation to this main one, were far little important, as if sidelined.
It can be said that his organization has already noted any successes in this grandfather. According to the 2016 data, i.e. already in the first year of the regulation of the Law and Justice, Poland overtook Greece's income, which joined the EU 24 years earlier than us. In turn, in 2020 Poland overtook Portugal, a country that has 19 years longer traineeships in the EU than in Poland.
So there is progress, and if in the future we could distance not even all 4 large countries, namely Spain, Italy, France and the United Kingdom, but only 2 of them, then Poles would be very pleased.
One might say that the estimated estimates relate to purchasing power parity, and this is not yet full of reflection of real income, due to the fact that the Pole, while abroad, will get nothing for parity, due to the fact that there is no specified currency.
The actual equalisation of income will happen erstwhile the Pole earns as much as the British or the Spanish, but in euro or dollars. The road may be longer, but it does not mean that there is not much advancement in this respect either.
Let's just take the last year. The rate of the euro against the euro is presently PLN 4.59 per euro (21.04.2023). precisely a year ago, that course was 4.63. It can be considered that during this year the value of the euro, expressed in PLN, was constant.
However, delight note that for this year, inflation in the euro area amounted to 6.9 percent, while inflation in Poland amounted to 16.1 percent. So if the exchange rate remained constant, that means that the value of the euro, only during this year, rose by 10 percent.
Let us present this in relation to the average remuneration in the enterprise sector. In March 2022 this remuneration amounted to PLN 6,665.6 in Poland, i.e., according to the exchange rate at the time, amounted to EUR 1,440, while in March of this year this wage amounted to PLN 7,508, i.e. already EUR 1636. This means that the average wage expressed in euro has increased by as much as 13.6 percent, only in the last year.
In March, the German Statisisches Bundesamt reported a change in pay in Germany for the last year. There was a decrease in wages of 3.7 percent. besides in the long term, the changes are negative, and the real wage value in 2022 inactive did not scope the wage level in 2016, and was 1 percent lower than it was. This is the real origin of fresh large strikes throughout Germany.
Meanwhile, in Poland the real wage in 2022 was 19.2% higher than in 2016. We are so catching up with richer EU countries not only in the size of national income, but besides in real wages and in the value of gold. And let's keep it that way.
Stanisław Lewicki
