The last presidential election was held in the summertime of 2020. 20.6 million voters went to the polls, or over 68 percent. We only broke this evidence in the 2023 parliamentary elections (achieving awesome 74.38 percent).
What did the polls show in 2020?
At the time, we had a akin match. Rafał Trzaskowski stood on 1 side, on the other, the candidate of the PiS camp, elected personally by Jarosław Kaczyński. For Andrzej Duda it was already the second fight for the second round, in the first fight with Bronisław Komorowski he was successful.
But before the start with Rafał Trzaskowski, the polls were not on his side. Yes, they showed an highly balanced skirmish, with a clear indication of Trzaskowski. Not from the beginning.
Before the first circular of CBOS importantly underestimated the support of Rafał Trzaskowski. According to the government center's forecast, Andrzej Duda was to receive 45 percent of the vote. He got 43.5 percent. Rafał Trzaskowski, on the another hand, could number about 20 percent according to the polls, but he got over 30 percent.
The polls before the 2nd circular indicated that Rafał Trzaskowski had the advantage. Small, minimal. CBOS then claimed (a fewer days before the election) that the candidate KO could number on 44,6 percent of the support, his appointed by PiS rival was to have 44,4 percent.
According to an IBRIS poll 2 days before the election, the president of Warsaw was to win 47.4% of the vote in the second round. His competitor wanted to vote 45.7%. Over 1 and a half points of difference in favour of Trzaskowski.
Various forecasts showed that Trzaskowski had an 80 percent chance of winning.
How was it?
The election ended with the triumph of President-in-Office Andrzej Duda, who was elected for his second term, receiving 51.03 percent of the votes in the second round.
What did the pollers say at the time? Well, they explained that all measurement has a mistake. The results were different from the polls, but not much. They added that polls did not include foreign, but that the number of Poles voting in embassies and consulates was increasing.
However, it cannot be denied that polls and forecasts proved to be mostly wrong. possibly they were disturbed by a advanced turnout that made it hard to foretell the outcome. The point is that then not only voters "decided" go to the polls, but besides people making decisions under the influence of impulse, in the last almost moment.
How's it gonna be this year?
Still hard to tell. The situation before the 2nd circular looks akin to the 1 from 5 years ago. The polls do not show a strong favourite, 1 can only get the impression that Rafał Trzaskowski leads them slightly.
An interesting communicative related to these elections is quoted by OKO.press and TOK FM. In 3 years after the election, they commissioned Ipsos to ask Poles who they voted for in 2020. 47 percent of respondents stated that they voted for Rafał Trzaskowski, 40 percent admitted to voting for Andrzej Duda. 10% said they did not vote, 3% did not remember who they deleted.
A large group of Poles either lied or were ashamed of their choice. So it is not excluded that many people and present do not tell the fact to pollsters.
