For the first time since planet War II, the number of deaths accumulated over 12 months in France has exceeded the number of births. Between June 2024 and May 2025, about 651,000 deaths were reported against 650 000 births, giving a negative natural balance of about 1,000 people — a historical demographic return.
This situation was predicted by the INSEE Institute for about 2035, but occurred almost 10 years earlier, indicating an acceleration of population decline. The reason is mainly a drastic simplification in births (a drop of about 20% compared to 2010) in combination with an ageing society, where life expectancy remains high. The fertility rate has fallen to about 1.6 children per female — the lowest level in over a century, and it does not let for a simple replacement of generations.
The slowdown in birth rates has serious social consequences: the simplification in the number of students in schools, the closure of educational establishments, the decrease in overall work activity and, as a result, the fall in social contributions, which poses a serious threat to the conventional pension strategy based on repartition. French society is entering the phase of accelerated ageing, with less young people who can sustain the economy.
In view of this situation, the French government late held a gathering at the Elysée Palace with the president and ministers to discuss possible actions, but no concrete decisions have yet been given. In the short term, possible solutions include increased immigration and automation, while stimulating fertility remains a complex policy challenge, which may include, for example, expanding financial support for families or improving access to housing.
Source: lesalonbeige.fr
