Landscape after KPO

Several days after the outbreak of the “KPO” we have a full image of how Poles justice what happened. A definite number believes in the communicative of the rulings, supports the usage of funds from the KPO and is willing to decision their sympathy towards Donald Tusk's cabinet.

Marcin Palade

Do you think the government's actions in the alleged KPO affair are sufficient? – asked Poles Onet. Only 17 percent, not 38 percent, answered this, it is hard to say 21 percent. In turn, “Rzeczpospolita” asked: How do you measure the way the government utilized funds from KPO to date? Positively indicated 16 percent of respondents, negative – 37 percent, had no opinion – 14 percent. And 1 more question: Did the controversy about the payment of funds from the KPO to representatives of the hotel-gastronomic manufacture (HoReCa) affect your perception of the government? “I justice better,” said 8%, “I justice worse,” said 39 percent of respondents, “without influence” – 30 percent.

Several days after the outbreak of the “KPO” we have a full image of how Poles justice what happened. A definite number believes in the communicative of the rulings, supports the usage of funds from the KPO and is willing to decision their sympathy towards Donald Tusk's cabinet. Looking at the data, it is evident that the affirmative attitude towards the centre-left squad is almost 3 times little than supporting parties giving the ruling majority after 2023.

Another proof that the most ardent supporters of the government are mostly 'Strong Together' fanatics, parked mainly in the Civic Coalition, but besides the Left. A large percent of supporters, whether PSL or PL2050, in the KPO case is in neutral camp. I mean – he knows, at this stage, that their political facilities, especially in the case of PL2050, were in trouble. But he's not precisely ready to die for his representatives. He's getting away. He's on hold.

Shortly after the outbreak of the “KPO scandal”, there were voices that it would be the nail to the ruling coffin. That this will velocity up the coalition's timetable and bring us closer to the script of the early parliamentary elections. possibly early spring next year. They are optimists – mainly from the political and media circles of the largest opposition party, or PiS. But they could usage a bucket of cold water after the presidential election. Why?

Incoherent programme

The answer seems simple. It is actual that the coalition is incoherent programically – this has been the case from the very beginning. It is actual that she has mediocre staff resources – she has not worked for 8 years to be in opposition to the Law and Justice, so that in individual substance it is better to prepare for power. But it must be remembered that in addition to the hard anti-PiS electorate, which will always proceed at the Civic Coalition, there is simply a large group of little extremist voters, though not necessarily having love for the right. She is not 1 of those who, under the influence of 1 or the other, will change political sympathy. And it is she who remains "softly" at the ruling centreleft. No enthusiasm, or, in fact, more and more clenched teeth. In search of something new. But there's no fresh one.

Those who were on the 3rd Road and rejected Tusk's crew rather rapidly after 2023 are already aboard the Confederacy. The Law and Justice will not scope for them – without the slightest chance. All the more reason for the “Corona” Braun's besides extremist for them. And the offer of what is ends there. They have nowhere to go. Hence the difference we see. A survey about KPO – very bad for Tusk and his back. And then we compare it with organization measurements and it's so bad for the center.

To weaken the rulers

What, then, would gotta change so that the rulers would weaken even more, internally quarreled ones would jump even more to their throats? What, at least a small bit, would the current opposition benefit? There are respective factors. Not all can materialize here and now. I don't think I'd look at the chance for the centre-right in what's happening on the global stage. If this does not affect us more shortly – in terms of the consequences of what in Ukraine, in material terms and safety – then the governing posts will not fall besides much. Problems with the budget? possibly more. But if there were any cuts, more noticeable, it most likely wasn't until 2026. Now, in order to save the skin, the rulers will owe us even more.

So it is only at the turn of the year, or possibly early in spring, that we can have the accumulation of the aftermath of the end of the war in Ukraine, including the variant of the collapse of the front and the transition to the offensive by Russia, along with the control of subsequent lands by the Kremlin. The passing of tens by Poland, if not hundreds of thousands of soldiers from the front – with frequently disturbed wartime mentalities. A possible next wave of migration from Ukraine – those much poorer than those already are and drive luxury cars on our streets and occupy buying malls.

This is all due to budgetary problems, specified as the wave of refugees mentioned above. Here, unlike 2022 or 2023, Poles will not decision so willingly with help, relieving the state. Ukraine and Ukrainians, both those ruling in Kiev and many of those who are in Poland, have done much to make many Poles radically change the perception of the neighbour from the south-eastern between.

To this we add the migration pact that entered into force from 1 July 2026. With engineers we'll get from the Union—counted in hundreds of thousands. Collect these 2 elements: from Ukraine – soldiers and civilians from the east, plus migrants from the west. This is simply a origin that can break down the ruling coalition. due to the fact that she, as all kid in kindergarten knows, is not uniform in almost all case. With the mentioned, very real storm – dealing with the Left, for example, with PSL would be a fresh miracle over Vistula. And that's not gonna happen.

Another field of confrontation is debt increases, spending cuts. How would a common position be developed by the Left and – wanting to be considered pro-entrepreneur – PL2050? You can't, can you? Hence – who knows – whether on a wave of increasing discontent and threats of decay of the strategy formed after 2023, there will be no deep reconstruction, that is, blasting Donald Tusk from the saddle. Brussels, to save its assets, will dedicate its current Prime Minister. Merz won't lift a finger in his shoe, Von der Leyen won't answer her phone. due to the fact that Brussels is terrified of the 2015 replay. Now taking the controls over the right side in Warsaw would be even more painful for the Union. That's why she'll want to buy herself time, hoping that a large lift and Prime Minister Sikorski can change something for the probrexel arrangement for the better.

Will it? Not likely. The game is to make certain that as fewer as possible of those in the mediate pass from centre to centre right. The game is about keeping many of them a fresh initiative in politics. We had many: Palikot, Petru, Holovnia. Those who have always been behind this, with the base in Kiev, will effort to play again. due to the fact that they have to. Otherwise, the middle, even if the arrangement had someway reached 2027, will not go to vote. And then we'll have a solid majority for groups to the right of the center. And what gives the centre the top fear in the surviving area – the constitutional majority.

KPO, where we started, contributed to Donald Tusk and his cabinet being the fastest-exploited crew after 1990. Only 1 3rd of us justice the Prime Minister and the government well. More than half is clearly on “no”. And this is only August – 3 months before half a term. But since we're talking about KPO, it's worth looking at the problem in the long term. Without looking at the immediate benefits here and now. The program itself is mostly a loan. Communityised – that is, its burden is spread across all EU countries. The Law and Justice Department, agreeing to this, de facto supported the further centralization and weakening of the sovereignty of the states – in what we are most curious in – Poland.

These loans for yachts, clubs for "singers" and another freaks – all this will come to us, Poles, to pay by 2058. There is only hope that by then the EU, in its current euro-circular shape, will fall apart. What if they don't? So think about what happens erstwhile we get paid back in 10 years, and we don't have the means? The wealthiest in the EU, Germany? They will repeat the variant with Greece, which indebted – including power in German banks – and as a bankrupt, she was offered a proposal by these Germans that the debt could be replaced by Greeks, giving Germans the island. We have two. Will it be a consequence of the problems with the KPO that the Polish part of the island of Uznam and the full Wolin is depleted? I'm asking with half a joke, but it's half serious.