Recent polls point to an advantageRafał Trzaskowski, candidate for the civilian Coalition, aboveKarol Nawrocki, representing the PiS. According to a survey conducted by the centreOpinion24In the first circular Trzaskowski would get35.3% of the votes, while Nawrocki –22.1%. In the second round, the advantage of Trzaskowski would be even clearer, reaching52.4% versus 35.2%for Nawrocki.
These trends are confirmed by the survey United Surveys for Virtual Poland of late January 2025. It shows that in the second circular Trzaskowski could number on 49.6% of supportwhile Nawrocks on 39.9%. Results propose that PiS faces a real hazard of losing the presidencywhich may translate into a crucial part of the electorate.
What if Nawrocki loses? Prof. Bugaj warns
Prof. Richard Bugaj, economist and erstwhile associate of the PiS Programme Board, in conversation with ‘Fact’ presented pessimistic scenario for the Jarosław Kaczyński organization in the event of a failure in the upcoming elections. In his opinion Failure in the presidential election, coupled with a decline in support in the polls, could lead to disintegration of the party.
"If they lose the presidential election and start falling in polls, it would be the end," says prof. Bugaj
The economist besides points out Importance of organization finances. Possible failure subsidies Could weaken the PiS' ability to run an effective run and keep organization structures.
"In the absence of a subsidy, PiS sympathizers will not be so eager to fund the organization account," the economist emphasizes in an interview with the Fact.
Possible post-election scenarios: what's next with PiS?
In case of a failure in the PiS presidential election may face the request to redefine its strategy and structure. Prof. Bugaj suggests that internal voltages can lead to a breakdown in the batch.
"They can eat and sprinkle if they lose the election," says prof. Bugaj in a conversation with the Facts.
However, even if Trzaskovsky's victory, no fast and extremist change in national policy is expected. The current political situation in Poland is complex adequate that a possible change in the position of president can only initiate the process of gradual change. It can besides lead to escalation of social tensions.
"However, I have no uncertainty that if Trzaskowski wins the election, there will be a sharp dispute in Poland," explains prof. Bugaj, whose words the Fact will mention to. "I fear that he may spill out on the streets and then there will be far-reaching negative consequences for Poland. We are in a situation of large uncertainty, as it was, of course, maintaining proportions, in 90.” – adds.
Election 2025: key minute for Polish policy
The presidential election in 2025 could be a turning point for Law and Justice. A possible failure may not only weaken the political position of the partybut besides lead to internal tensions and the request to reorganise.
In turn the triumph of Rafał Trzaskowski may open a fresh chapter in Polish policy, although its effects will depend on many factors, including the ability of the fresh president to cooperation with various political groups.
Whatever the outcome, The upcoming elections will be crucial for the future of Poland and its direction of improvement in the coming years.
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