Biggest shock to you?
Dr. Jacek Kucharczyk, president of the Institute of Public Affairs: The consequence of the election itself!
I was peculiarly shocked by the support for Nawrock among young people. Not only the youngest, but besides in the group between 30 and 40. Young people were very mobilized, attendance among them was very high. At the same time, they decided to support the candidate of Law and Justice. A organization against which the young had many charges, and the support for the PiS in this group had long been very low.
Why did young people vote like that?
I think it was a vote for the Confederate alternatively than Nawrocki or PiS. They were people who voted for Mentzen or Braun in the first round. The fact that Nawrocki appeared as a individual who accepted all Mentzen's demands besides convinced voters of these 2 candidates.
Nawrocki's campaign, especially in the last 2 weeks, was mostly geared towards gaining votes from another right-wing candidates, which has proved to be effective. The voice of young people on the far right seems alternatively shocking, however, due to the fact that he de facto outweighed the results of these elections.
The fresh Poland showed itself to us, although it was inactive the same.
Indeed. It is new, old, due to the fact that Poland remains very divided. Just like before the election, so after the election. It should be noted that although Nawrocki won more votes on the 1 hand than any another president in the past of Polish democracy, at the same time this margin of triumph was besides very small, the smallest in the past of presidential elections.
Nawrocki said after the exit polls were announced, "I believe that next day we will all wake up with our president Karol Nawrocki, who will put together half of the broken Poland." How would he do that?
It's post-election rhetoric. I don't think Nawrocki can do anything to glue Poland together. He can glue the PiS with the Confederate and will most likely be sponsoring specified a possible coalition in the 2027 election. possibly earlier, if there were to be a breakdown of the current coalition.
However, he will not reconcile Poles, due to the fact that for this party, which voted for Trzaskowski, he will stay a hooligan who took part in the kibolian settings and a man with a very cloudy, possibly criminal, past. I don't think Nawrocki can change that image.
People who voted for Trzaskowski are already terrified not only that the PiS candidate won but that the individual with specified a past and specified a personality will now represent Poland. So I do not see the anticipation that Nawrocki can glue Poland in any way.
So many Poles are asking themselves this question today. Why did nothing, no scandals and shocking facts from Nawrocki's past, affect his constituents? Why did they bleach him? Why did they spare him everything? What happened to our society?
A large part of Nawrocki's voters, or possibly even everyone, simply thought that all this information was unbelievable. They were drawing news from the Internet, where social media is very effective in making people's brains so chaotic that any voters just don't know what to believe and don't know what to believe.
In addition, alleged identity media, or media conducive to PiS, besides reiterated that these very alarming information about Nawrocki's past was simply an example of a dirty campaign. And so the right-wing voters treated it.
Of course, this information was reliable for most of the voters of Trzaskovsky and most likely mobilized them to vote. On the another hand, they absolutely did not convince the voters of Nawrocki.
It's just humanly hard to understand. Okay, there's news chaos, but part of the public immediately knows something's wrong, that it's besides much, that they don't want a president who acts like that. Why didn't it get completely to part of the nation?
Some voters thought that even if in part this is true, Nawrocki represents specified a imagination of Poland to which it is closer to them. It means highly conservative, opposed to number rights or women's rights. And that's why they voted for him, even with their teeth tight.
We saw it in the CBOS poll. any PiS voters even said that what Nawrocki did about the flat was unfair, but at the same time they felt that it did not discredit him as a presidential candidate. So much was forgiven.
I remember 1 of the journalists proceeding from a associate in the Nawrock March on 25 May: "Never head whether honest or not, it's crucial that he believes in God."
That says a lot.
Yeah. Trzaskowski was presented not only as an enemy of the Church, but as a individual enemy of the Lord God. And Nawrocki as a defender of Catholicism and religion. And specified a imagination spoke to any of the conservative voters, including older people, who could alienate the information that the presidential candidate was active in the kibolist stances. Then they heard the words of president Duda, who actually normalized stadium force and who underestimated information about Nawrocki's hooligan feats.
At the same time, the Catholic Church supported the PiS candidate in various ways. The bishops and parish priests seemingly did not interfere with the information about Nawrocki's cloudy past, due to the fact that it was in their interest for him to win. For example, that any ideas of politicians of the present coalition, specified as those that would limit the financing of the Church, could not enter into force.
It was quite a few force on voters. The Church supported Nawrocki as he could not only from ideological beliefs, but besides in his own interest. At least he kept quiet about his moral spine.
Your biggest bitterness after this election?
During the Trzaskowski campaign, he failed to scope voters from smaller towns or villages. The Nawrocks, but besides another right-wing candidates, were able to be closer to people in these towns. Even erstwhile Rafał Trzaskowski was traveling in Poland, meetings frequently felt like there were any barriers between him and people.
Nawrocki, on the another hand, was able to present himself effectively to people as a folk candidate. Something Trzaskowski tried to do, but he didn't precisely succeed.
At the same time, I believe that there was no better candidate on the democratic side, but it was most likely better to plan his election run and start talking about the affirmative side of his imagination of Poland. We heard this during the march on 25 May in Warsaw, but earlier this was missing.
On the another hand, we must bear in head the tremendous power of misinformation that has been utilized against Trzaskowski and against which we, as a society, are mostly helpless. Despite the fight against misinformation, it is ubiquitous and has a immense impact on our policy.
How can you sum up what happened?
The consequence of the election is an expression of dissatisfaction with the policy of the ruling coalition, but at the same time shows how much of the Polish voters moved to the right. And that we have a deeper crisis of liberal-democratic values in a large part of Polish society, especially among young men.
There was a turn to the law, which the Law and Justice Office powerfully strengthened, erstwhile for 8 years he had power instruments in his hand, including through the activities of the Institute of National Memory and another very conservative organizations, which promoted a imagination of Poland. These right-wing and conservative and nationalistic values have been strengthened in Polish society and the election of Karol Nawrocki is, among another things, the consequence of this shift of values.
Further part of the article below:
Women voted for Trzaskowski, but it turned out that Mentzen also. What does this show about changes in society?
Among the women, Trzaskowski won very clearly. And so did the coalition in 2023. Nawrocki actually had no offer for women, although he said "Poles and Poles". The Law and Justice has learned that. In his case, women’s support was likely decided by ideological or spiritual considerations.
In contrast, erstwhile it comes to women voting for Mentzen, I think it was an anti-system gesture, referring to the "freedom" rhetoric of this policy.
In any municipalities, Nawrocki won over 90% of the vote. Trzaskowski did not even score 80 percent in the large cities on which they were expected. What's missing here?
It is clear that any of the voters who went to vote in 2023 did not vote this time, which means that there was a demobilization which seemingly touched Trzaskovsky. We know that in a large part of society – especially among young people – after the creation of a fresh coalition government, there was a advanced level of discontent with Polish politics and a advanced level of criticism of power.
Some of those voters most likely did not want to vote for Nawrocki, but their vote for Trzaskowski was missing. It was not possible to make a akin mobilization as in 2023, although attendance was high. But not advanced adequate to save Trzaskovsky's candidacy.
Immigrants, refugees from Ukraine... We saw what was happening in many municipalities, as they protested against the Centres for the Integration of Foreigners. How could this affect society?
Certainly the dislike of Ukrainian refugees and immigrants played a role. This was most clearly seen among Confederate voters, but in general, xenophobic attitudes were strengthened in Polish society. It affected how voters voted.
However, I do not think it is the issue of migrants that determines the result of the elections. I think it has been decided by a critical attitude towards the current ruling coalition and that it has not fulfilled many of its promises. At the same time, expectations of her were frequently contradictory. any felt that the coalition did not rapidly account for the changes in the courts, while others felt that he was only dealing with court battles and another things he disregarded. The candidates to the right, but besides Zandberg, skillfully fueled it.
Now what? Can Nawrocks surprise us with something? For example, before the 2027 election, the PiS would want to show that it is not as scary as it was picked up in the campaign?
I don't see it. I think the president will keep a hard line towards the ruling coalition and effort to make their lives as hard as possible. The coalition will have a immense problem with the implementation of its programme. At present, there is small hope of completing the recovery of the judiciary strategy and full restoring the regulation of law, which was to be realised as a friendly coalition president wins the election.
This has not happened and I am certain that Nawrocki will block all changes to reconstruct democratic standards in public life.
On the another hand, I think that the coalition should simply do "recognition by combat" and send the president the bill. Don't quit on them, due to the fact that even if Nawrocki is serious about vetoing them, then at least it will be known where it comes from, that any things fail.
We are facing hard times for Polish democracy.
