More than a year after the parliamentary election and respective rounds of fighting between the Shiite militias, the Iraqi parliament nominated Mohammed Sudani as the fresh Prime Minister. any say it means winning the pro-Iran option in Iraq. Let us take a closer look at Iraqi politics.
Election 2021
Parliamentary elections were held in Iraq in October 2021. They were won by the group Muktada Sadra, 1 of Iraq's more colourful politicians. Coming from a well-known lineage of Shiite scholars, Sadr gained popularity after 2003, creating the alleged Mahdi Army and fighting the business troops.
Sadr attempted to make a government in a coalition with Sunni and Kurdish parties, eliminating from the puzzle his Shiite rivals—especially erstwhile Maliki Prime Minister (whose Sadr sincerely hates due to the fact that Maliki, along with the Americans, crashed the Mahdi Army in 2008).
Trying to make a government without the participation of another Shiite parties, Sadr broke the alleged consensus principle, which has been the foundation of the Iraqi political strategy since Saddam's overthrow in 2003. The consensus rule is that the Iraqis are trying to get as many parties as possible into the government coalition. As a result, the successive Iraqi governments formed after 2003 included the majority of the parties that were then in parliament.
This rule ensures a strong inclusion of governments, but besides creates a blurring of work and a deficiency of strong parliamentary opposition. The consensus rule is increasingly being attacked by young Iraqis who consider it a symbol of the collapse of the Iraqi political system.
Before Sadr began questioning her in the autumn of 2021, the alleged "Oct Movement" – a young environment that was formed on the basis of protests from 2019 to 2020, spoke against the rule of consensus.
However, returning to the post-election calculations of autumn 2021. Attempts to break the rule of consensus by Sadr led to the formation of a broad anti-Sadrist coalition (the alleged Council of Coordination). The Council of Coordination is frequently referred to in the media as pro-Iranian, but this is simply a mistake.
The Council was set up not to defend Iran's interests in Baghdad, but to preserve the position quo and defend the interests of the Iraqi political elite. It so included both pro-Iran elements (Fatah) and pro-US elements (e.g. erstwhile Prime Minister Hajdar Abadi).
As a result, further months passed in Iraq under constant political intrigue. Sadr tried to break the Council of Coordination's opposition in different ways and the Council blocked any Sadr initiative to establish a fresh government.
Eventually, in June 2022, Sadr decided to play va banque and ordered all Members of his group to pay parliamentary seats. As a result, the majority in the parliament won the Coordination Council, which proposed for the fresh Prime Minister Mohamed al Sudani.
Sudani is simply a trusted man of Nuri Maliki (the mentioned enemy of Sadr). That was adequate to bring Iraq to the brink of civilian war. Sadr began to request that Parliament be dissolved and that fresh elections be set up.
In July, Sadrists entered the Green region (government divider) in Baghdad and occupied the parliament building. In the following days, they entered the USSR respective times, organizing demonstrations against Sudan and Malik. As a result, Parliament suspended its activities.
Acting Prime Minister, Mustafa Kadhimi, tried to resolve the dispute between the Sadrists and the Coordination Council inviting all parties to the "round table". Sadrists – as the only group – nevertheless boycotted attempts at mediation by Kadhimi.
Tension reached zenith in late August erstwhile Sadr announced that he was withdrawing from politics (which he had already done repeatedly), and his sympathizers one more time attacked the government territory in Baghdad. On the night of 29/30 August, Baghdad became a war zone.
Sadrists attacked the Council of Coordination fighters and government forces. The clashes lasted not only in Baghdad, but throughout the Shiite South. The degree of coordination suggests that this was a pre-planned Sadrist operation. 30 people died that night in Baghdad alone, and 400 were injured.
The next day Sadr called on his sympathizers to leave the Green Zone, and clashes stopped. Sadr seemed to think that this demonstration of force was adequate to force the Council of Coordination to dissolve parliament and set up fresh elections. But he was wrong.
In September Sadr called on his allies – the Democratic Kurdistan organization (KDP) and the Sunni Progressive organization – to submit parliamentary mandates. This would be a final blow to the parliament, which would lose any remaining legitimacy in specified a situation.
Not only did Sadra's allies refuse to give their seats, they switched to the Coordination Council. Interestingly, the chief of Turkish intelligence, Hakan Fidan, was to assist in the ‘return of alliances’, who had respective meetings with Mohammed Halbousi (aspicer of parliament and leader of the Progressive Party).
At today's parliament session, the triumph of the Coordination Council was total. Without opposition from Sadr's erstwhile allies, a fresh president of the Republic (Latif Rashid) was elected, and then the mission of establishing a fresh government was entrusted to Mohammed Sudan, as the Council so pressed.
The Coordination Council so achieved a complete triumph by dragging Sadr's allies to its side and choosing “its man” as Prime Minister. However, this is not the end of political unrest in Iraq. Sadr won't quit that easily.
Federal power in Iraq is weak. Sadr, on the another hand, seems to believe that, despite the withdrawal of his organization from parliament, he can inactive influence the political situation in the country. Hundreds of thousands of sympathizers and militants of the alleged Peace Brigade (the fresh incarnation of the Mahdi Army) are to aid him.
In what direction does this show the situation in Basra (south of the country) where Sadr is at war with Qais Khazali – a erstwhile associate of the Mahdi Army, and now a associate of the Coordination Council. Sadrists raid Khazali's people and businesses. There's been a kidnapping and a rocket fire.
Now we're going to see more clashes like this, not just in Basra, but all over the South. Sadr's resistance, however, is only 1 of the problems of the fresh government. The alleged October Movement (the 'veterans' of the protests of 2019/2020) will most likely reject Sudan, which means a fresh wave of protests.
Finally, it is worth asking: Is the triumph of the Coordination Council a triumph of Iran? Not necessarily. As I mentioned, any members of the Council are actually connected to Iran, but not all. Moreover, the Iranians mediated respective times in the dispute between Sadr and the Council, proposing concessions to Sadr. Why?
Iran is negatively assessing the divisions in the Shiite community in Iraq, considering that rivalry between individual groups can yet lead to weakening Iran's influences – this is seen peculiarly in the young generation, which has nationalist tendencies and rejects both the Coordination Council and Sadra.
