A platform without allies can lose to the right. Chance Tuska is that this may not happen in the presidential election. Trzaskowski, 1 period before the election, did not begin to lose his support – how it began with the support of Komorowski in the same time of the 2015 campaign. No another candidate began to approach him – how it started with Duda in the same time of the 2015 campaign.
Despite the right-wing hatred of Trzaskowski and PO, at least 1 3rd of the Confederate voters shall not preclude voting for him in the second round. In 2020, nearly half of the voters voted for him in the second round. Confederationsbut Duda was strong and the full Polish state was a state PiS, worked as a PiS candidate. Today, 1 3rd of the Confederate's vote would be adequate for Trzaskowski to defeat Nawrocki.
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Social Right West
The majority electorate in Poland is not only right-wing (hence the turn of Tusk and Trzaskowski towards the themes of "political realism" – migration, safety – addressed to the voters of the right-wing and center, any conventional left-wingers will besides go for it, and the microscopic electorate of the "hypsterist left" can be left behind. Biejat and Zandberg). He's besides social.
Mentzen Playing with the alt-right themes of neo-traditionalism (the Church, possibly without Christianity and without Christ, but in a disciplining version of hard; women for men; mocking ridiculous moral “progress”) rapidly built recognition, support and fashion upon himself. Mentzen hitting social (attack on 800 plus and another benefits, attack on "free" public services) awakened against him the social electorate, which is the second (besides the right-wing) component of the voting majority in Poland, America, in an increasingly large part of Europe and the West.
In post-industrial countries (in various proportions, Poland inactive produces something, hence specified request for Ukrainians, due to the fact that the young Polish alt-rightist or alt-lefter is not suitable for work) voters "inactive economically and professionally", i.e. surviving in full or in large part with various types of benefits and benefits, are increasingly dominant in the election processes.
The West was to be after desindustrialization, after the failure of much of the steelworks, mines, the simplest assembly plants and sweetshops... (which after the beginning of globalisation were outsourced to China, Vietnam, India...in this part of the Global South, which has taken over at least adequate that it does not wage permanent civilian wars), an area of specialized production and services. As She Promised Margaret Thatcher, the working class will become mediate class after deindustrialisation, miners will become businessmen.
It did not, or it did, in proportion as it redefined Western societies in a somewhat different way. After deindustrialization, the West became an area of people on benefits, people on pensions. They choose power, they must be manipulated (convince) if you want power.
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Mentzen Test
If Mentzen does not break through on the right hand, it means only 1 thing – in Poland, however, there is inactive more importance for the care workers, pensioners, than those connected from childhood to the Internet, and youth have gone crazy. Man has always been “a symbolic thing.” For a very long time he had no "natural direct contact with reality". This reality always reaches him mediated, manipulated by symbols, signs, dreams – his own and others, which he was able to impose as his own. In the age of the net and social media, mediation has become even deeper, even more radical.
Therefore, there are those who consider themselves Musk Elons‘Only Tusk, European Union“The Ukrainians...” (the list can be any long and freely deep into absurdity) did not let them to realise their potential. These people have not paid taxes since birth, due to the fact that they have no crucial income since birth and will never have them, but the Confederate's anti-tax language goes to them the same way as to the American Hispanics went to the “mash” TrumpWho, after being elected president, began sending them to prison in a friendly Salvador.
However, the wall, which is Mentzen's beating into benefits, Mentzen's beating into free education or "free" (here quotes is essential due to the fact that people either pay or wait for death, but the thought of "freeness" alone will not give up) wellness care – that means a real test, a real effort at how hard the wall of post-industrial voting preferences (i.e. social-right) of Western societies is.
The rule of the Trzaskowski run is to "keep low" in the social right country. rule Navrocki is to flatter the social right, without idea, bluntly, in the way of late Kaczyński. It made this run so barren and boring. Apart from the Mentzen test, whose pass with or without Nawrock will tell us about Poland what is most important.
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Tusk plays 2 pianos
Tusk understands that and as usual tries to play 2 pianos. Both "nothing will be received" and "deregulation" Peaches‘.
His strategy is to shield Trzaskovsky, turn up and grow his campaign. Zandberg's attacks and parts of the PiS (‘black’, most social due to the fact that Moravian He himself would like to make a "deregulation", but he would should be the leader of any another right-wing, alternatively than being dependent on PiS voters, who full meet the social right-wing definition) believe Tusk and can supply Trzaskowski with at least part of the Confederate voters in the second round.
Nawrocki is simply a block of wood treated by the PiS between successive stages of the campaign. If it protects itself from the Minus with Mentzen, it will not be thanks to him, but a precise diagnosis about contemporary Poland. Confirming that Polish society, like most Western societies, is present a social community of the right (passive, manipulative, surviving claims and nostalgias) – doomed to decadence, possibly irreversible.
Cezary Michalski
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