How large is the Polish economy?

It can be shown logically and numerically that Poland is actually richer than the authoritative Gross National Product (GDP) shows if we include:

1. grey region – approx. 18-20% of GDP

Official CSO data indicate that the alleged "unobserved economy" (i.e. the grey region and undeclared activity) is ~9% of GDP. But independent estimates (IGA, UNGC) indicate that the actual grey region is 18–20% of GDP (or about PLN 500–600 billion).

GDP additive: +20 %

2. Unpaid work – approx. 30-35% of GDP

From CSO data:

In 2013, unpaid home work in Poland (childcare, cleaning, cooking, self-supply agriculture) was valued at about 31.3% of GDP. another estimates (OECD, ILO) indicate 25-40% of GDP in akin countries.

GDP add-on: +30%

Calculation of real GDP

Suppose that the authoritative GDP of Poland in 2023 was about PLN 3.3 trillion (i.e. ~820 billion USD).

Let's add:

• +20 % for the grey region = +660 billion PLN
• +30% for unpaid work = +990 billion PLN

GDP adjusted = 3.3 trillion + 0.66 trillion + 0.99 trillion = ≤ PLN 4.95 trillion
This means that the real wealth of Poland (in terms of full production and labour value) is about 50% higher than the authoritative GDP.

Conclusions:

Poland is richer than the indicators show because:

• A immense part of the work is not counted to GDP, even though it creates real value (childcare, homework).
• The grey region provides goods and services that meet the needs of society but are out of the scope of statistics.
• The standard of surviving measured subjectively and factually (e.g. permanent property) frequently exceeds the GDP per capita ranking.

Summary:

• Poland is actually about 50% richer than what authoritative GDP shows if we include:
• the value of unpaid home work (approximately +30% of GDP),
• activity in the grey economy (approximately +20 % of GDP).

This means that real “total GDP” of Poland can scope up to PLN 5 trillion