Experts on the 2025 presidential campaign. “Primisation” of elections in Poland

• Dr hab. Tomasz Słomka pointed out the "priming" of the electoral campaign, suggesting the election of the head of government in the general election
• Experts analysed data on election attendance in 2015 and 2020 and forecasts for 2025, where declarations scope 75%.
• Sławomir Mentzen exceeds the 20% threshold in polls, but experts item the uncertainty of young voters and foretell unchangeable polarisation
• For more information, visit the Onetu homepage

The Thursday debate of the Polish Press Agency afraid the course of this year's presidential campaign. Journalists working with PAP asked questions to experts representing universities — Dr. Małgorzata Molędzie-Zdziech (SGH), Dr. Tomasz Słomce (UW) and Dr. Mateusz Zarembie (USWPS).

Molęda-Zdziech (SGH) stressed during the discussion that the current global context and the changing global order make this year's presidential run in Poland peculiarly interesting.

Premise elections

According to Słomka, however, it is carried out in a predictable way and does not de facto concern what the president does in the Polish system. As he said, we are dealing with a "premierisation" of the electoral run in Poland, due to the fact that candidates must mention to what the Prime Minister would mention to. The scientist suggested that in Poland possibly the head of government should be elected in the general election. According to Słomka, the most interesting elements of the presidential run are just ahead.

Zaremba (USWPS) prepared an analysis of data from erstwhile electoral campaigns for PAP. As he pointed out, in March 2015 67% of Poles declared their participation in the presidential elections, but yet attendance was little than 49 percent. In 2020, in turn, he recalled that 86% of voters declared voting, and yet 64.5 percent went to polls.

citing CBOS data, according to which the participation in this year's elections declares about 75 percent of Poles, the expert questioned the attendance of this year's elections.

During the debate, among others, the question was whether candidate Karol Nawrocki and Sławomir Mentzen, supported by the Law and Justice Office, could control places. The straw admitted that it did not believe in specified a “tummy”. In his opinion, there will be no second-place change in election polls, as strong polarisation is "a certain kind of anchor that shows that it is improbable that this is the time for a 3rd force."

The expert besides recalled what we learned from the erstwhile presidential election; he noted that presidential elections were always won by candidates of the largest and most wealthy and best organized groups. He expressed doubts as to whether the Confederacy was as strong as the PO and the Law and Justice. At the same time, he assessed that this organization had a "great asset" and should not underestimate the candidate of this formation.

The debate besides raised the question of Karol Nawrocki's "bad results", as well as who the PiS voters are, to whom the candidate supported by this organization does not respond and so "go away". Molęda-Zdziech (SGH) pointed out that We're inactive talking about a candidate who's second in the polls. She besides recalled that Nawrocki, erstwhile starting the race for the president's seat, was an unrecognized individual by most voters, yet did the occupation and is presently second in the polls.

Referring to Mentzen, the expert pointed out that she had already been exceeded in the polls "the intellectual limit of 20%", which causes us to "think more and more boldly about this candidate". She besides pointed out that the Confederate candidate was very capable of acquiring young people, although, as she recalled, they are “unsure” voters who may yet not go to the elections. In her opinion, the so - called hard electorate is more sure. For these reasons, the expert besides admitted that she did not believe in specified a ‘tubing’ between right-wing candidates.

On the another hand, Dr. Mateusz Zaremba (USWPS) assessed that the possible "mijanka" of both candidates would depend on attendance. “If attendance falls very much, I think it is then possible,” he said. He besides added that for the Law and Justice Party, a greater problem than the departure of candidates to the Confederacy is that the voters of the Law and Justice organization will resign in general.

During the debate, among others, there was talk about the undecided voters that the candidates are fighting for. Candidate KO Rafał Trzaskowski meets with representatives of women's organizations, Karol Nawrocki promotes the slogan “Women Behind Nawrocki”, the candidate of the fresh Left Magdalena Biejat during the convention on 8 March spoke exclusively about women's rights.

The Key function of Women

Molęda-Zdziech pointed out during the debate that electoral demobilization among women and especially young people could be due to the fact that during the run "women are instrumentalised" by political parties in order to accomplish a affirmative result. — Businesses or cases that are attributed to women are usually treated after the parties come to power as secondary, whatever, impossible to deal with,” said Molada-Zedze. “That’s why they may be so far away,” she added.

The expert then cited the investigation results of the More in Common Foundation of December 2024. “ As much as 29 percent, or almost one-third of young women, are not going to vote whether or not she has yet decided on whom due to the fact that she does not see specified a programme offer here,” she stressed.

According to Słomka, during the presidential election 1 of the 2 scenarios he cited concerning women's decisions can be expected. The first assumes that a large part will proceed to stay indecisive due to the actions of the current ruling coalition. “They can say, “If you promised things in 2023, you have ruled for so long and have not been realized, we feel cheated and stay home,” Słomka said.

According to the second scenario, women will vote “through clenched teeth” for a candidate who has the most open program and the best chance of winning. — That is what they may think electorally: “Our voice will not be wasted due to the fact that he has a chance to decision on to the second round.” And here the fresh Left candidate Magdalena Biejat loses her meaning,” said Słomka.

What do the polls say?

According to a United Surveys poll for Virtual Poland, 35.9 percent of the respondents, Karol Nawrocki, 27.1%, and Sławomir Mentzen, 19.4%, would support the first circular of presidential elections. The 4th place was the candidate of the 3rd Way Simon Hołownia with a consequence of 3.6 percent. 5th place was taken by Adrian Zandberg of the organization Together – 3.1% with an increase in support by 2.1 percent points. The sixth place was taken by the candidate of the fresh Left, Magdalena Biejat with the support of 2.1% (decrease by 2.3 percent points), and the seventh position was taken by Euro MP Grzegorz Braun from the Polish Crown – 1.1 percent (increase by 0.5 percent points). The rate is closed by Marek Jakubiak – 0.9% (a decrease of 1.8 percent points). 6.8% of respondents replied that they did not know who they would vote for.

The presidential election will take place on May 18. Any second circular will be held on 1 June.

Questions were asked by experts: Marek Mikołajczyk (Journal of Law Newspapers), Arkadiusz Gruszczyński (Gazeta Wyborcza), Marcin Terlik (Onet), Michał Torz (Polish Press Agency), Roch Kowalski (Polish Radio 24) and Krzysztof Majdan (TVPinfo.pl). The debate was led by Karolina Brainiac, editor of the political department of the Polish Press Agency.